Summary of "Bitcoin Dominance To Surge Into December"

Bitcoin Dominance To Surge Into December

Key Finance-Specific Content

Primary Topic: Bitcoin dominance in the crypto market and its expected trajectory through December.
Current Status (as of Nov 10): Bitcoin dominance just below 60% (closed last week at 59.9%).
Expectation: Bitcoin dominance is forecasted to rise in the short term, likely surging into December.

Assets and Instruments Mentioned

Bitcoin (BTC)
Ethereum (ETH)
Altcoins (general reference)
Total 2 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin (a metric comparing altcoins excluding stablecoins to Bitcoin)
Total 3 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin (similar altcoin metric)
US Dollar (USD)

Market and Macroeconomic Context

Quantitative Tightening (QT): Ongoing QT is a key macro factor impacting Bitcoin dominance. QT has not ended yet but is expected to conclude in early December.
Historical Context:
- Bitcoin dominance topped in the post-halving year during the last cycle.
- The ultimate peak for Bitcoin dominance in the last cycle occurred during quantitative easing (QE).
- Historical patterns show Bitcoin dominance surging into December in multiple years (2016–2020).
US Dollar Trend: The dollar is strengthening, which historically correlates with altcoins dropping against Bitcoin over longer periods.

Investing and Trading Framework & Methodology

Historical Pattern Analysis:
- Bitcoin dominance tends to find a low in September and then rise into December.
- Large altcoins (especially ETH) tend to bottom against Bitcoin in early December.
- ETH/BTC pairs typically drop into early December with some exceptions (e.g., December 2021).
Altcoin vs Bitcoin Price Action:
- Altcoin/Bitcoin pairs are expected to decline into early December.
- ETH/BTC is expected to put in a higher low despite altcoins generally dropping.
- Liquidity is expected to flow from altcoins back into Bitcoin.
Short-Term Relief: A brief relief or bounce in altcoin/Bitcoin pairs is expected in early to mid-November before resuming the downtrend.
Bitcoin Price Support:
- Bitcoin has shown resilience staying above $10K in 2019 during QT and is currently holding above $100K (likely a verbal error or hyperbole, possibly meant $20K+).
- Bitcoin dominance surges typically accompany Bitcoin making new all-time highs.
Potential Scenarios:
- If Bitcoin hits a new all-time high, dominance will surge further.
- If no new high, Bitcoin will likely trade sideways near current levels, with altcoins continuing to lose value relative to Bitcoin.

Key Numbers & Timelines

Bitcoin dominance near 60% (59.9% close last week).
Quantitative tightening expected to end early December.
Historical dominance surges noted in Decembers of 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.
ETH/BTC bottoms commonly occur in early December.
Altcoin/Bitcoin pairs may drop back to lows seen in June.

Recommendations and Cautions

Bitcoin is currently a better hold than altcoins due to expected liquidity flows and macroeconomic conditions.
Expect altcoins to underperform Bitcoin in the near term.
Watch for a brief relief rally in altcoin/Bitcoin pairs mid-November but anticipate a drop into early December.
Bitcoin dominance breaking through the current resistance near 60% is the base case.
Bitcoin dominance has been rising almost every week since the September low.

Disclaimers

No explicit financial advice is given. The presenter notes the timing of the recording and potential changes in market conditions.

Presenter

The video is presented by the host of the Into the Cryptoverse YouTube channel.

Summary

The video provides a detailed macro and technical analysis of Bitcoin dominance, forecasting a rise into December driven by ongoing quantitative tightening and historical seasonal patterns. Ethereum and other altcoins are expected to weaken against Bitcoin, with a brief relief rally possible in November. The presenter views Bitcoin as a superior investment relative to altcoins in the current environment and highlights the importance of macroeconomic factors like US dollar strength and QT in shaping crypto market dynamics.