Summary of "Jochen Staiger: Gold- und Silberprognose für 2026"

Summary: Jochen Staiger – Gold and Silver Forecast for 2026

Key Assets & Instruments Mentioned

Gold (XAU)
Silver (Ag)
Copper
Rare Earth Metals
US Treasuries
Gold ETFs
Bitcoin (BTC)
Silver ETFs / Exchange Traded Products (ETPs)
Companies: Discovery Silver, Whisla Silver, Ende Silver

Macroeconomic & Market Context

Gold price recently reached $67/oz, with a forecast to hit $70/oz next quarter (possibly in 2024).
Gold expected to return to $44/oz (likely a typo or previous reference) before moving toward higher targets:
- $4,700–$4,900 (context unclear, possibly different currency or index)
- $5,150–$5,200 (short term)
- $6,200 by 2027
- $9,250–$9,500 by 2030
Inflation-adjusted gold price from 1980 ($850) suggests a fair value of:
- $4,965 (assuming 4% inflation)
- $3,124 (assuming 3% inflation) This indicates gold is currently undervalued relative to inflation.
Silver price is currently around $67/oz, with a bullish outlook. Price targets have increased from $63 to $75 and potentially $80, with a long-term target of $146 by 2030.
Inflation-adjusted silver prices since 1980:
- $122 (2% inflation)
- $189 (3% inflation)
- $292 (4% inflation)
The US dollar’s role as a reserve currency is declining from 66% in 2015 to ~56–57% currently.
Western debt is projected to double from $20 trillion to $40 trillion by 2026, supporting precious metals as safe havens.
Central banks are aggressively buying gold, with notable buyers including Poland, Turkey, China, and India.
The USA holds the largest official gold reserves (8,134 tons), followed by Germany (3,352 tons), France, Italy, China, and Russia.
China’s official gold reserves (~2,800 tons) are believed to be significantly understated; actual holdings could be up to 10 times higher.
A Bank of America survey shows mixed gold price forecasts for next year, with a minority expecting prices above $5,000 per unit.

Investment & Risk Management Advice

Diversification and loss avoidance are critical.
Avoid debt and speculation on credit.
Physical gold and silver holdings are recommended; suggested minimum:
- 100–200 ounces of silver per household member
- Physical gold holdings depending on budget and preference.
Prefer physical metals (“glittering bars”) over digital assets or cryptocurrencies for safety and tangible value.
Bitcoin is viewed as speculative and dependent on digital infrastructure, whereas gold is a tangible asset.

Supply & Demand Dynamics

Exploration investment in 2024: $3.2 billion, but new copper discoveries only 1.9 million tons (2010–2024), indicating supply scarcity.
Similar scarcity applies to silver, uranium, nickel, zinc, and rare earth metals.
Silver supply is under severe pressure:
- China has stopped silver exports to London, causing physical shortages.
- A 7-year silver deficit estimated at 1.2 billion ounces.
- Warehouse stocks (LBMA) are near empty; only 20% of silver stocks are available for delivery.
- Recycling is minimal and inelastic; mine production is stagnant.
Silver demand is driven by:
- Solar panel manufacturing (India plans 500 GW by 2030, requiring 290–450 million ounces of silver).
- Electric vehicles, armaments, and high-tech applications.
New silver mines expected to come online:
- Whisla Silver (production by early 2028)
- Discovery Silver (production by 2030) These could add approximately 50–60 million ounces annually starting 2031 but will not eliminate the deficit.
Silver was added to the list of critical minerals on November 6th, alongside uranium and copper, prompting increased investment.

Market Events & Technicals

Gold ETFs had their strongest inflows since 2020.
Central banks are buying gold to offset US Treasury holdings.
Price manipulation attempts by shorts in silver (December 4th) failed; silver price rebounded from ~$59.30 to $66.67.
Technical breakout in silver from previous resistance (~$36) led to price target revision from $63 to $75 and beyond.
Speculation of a “Big Bang” event when March delivery dates arrive, potentially causing market disruption.

Methodology / Framework Highlights

Use inflation-adjusted historical prices to gauge fair value for gold and silver.
Monitor central bank gold purchases as a leading indicator.
Track ETF inflows and physical metal availability to assess demand-supply imbalances.
Consider geopolitical and macroeconomic factors such as debt levels and reserve currency shifts.
Evaluate mining and recycling supply forecasts relative to industrial demand growth.
Emphasize physical metal holdings for risk management and wealth preservation.

Disclaimers

No explicit financial advice is given. The presenter stresses avoiding debt and speculation. Recommendations are based on personal opinion and market observation.

Presenters / Sources

Jochen Staiger (Rohstoff TV, Community TV) – primary presenter and analyst.
Reference to Ronny Stöferle (Inkrementum) for gold cycle charts.
Mention of Bank of America gold price survey.
Chart and data source from Silberape King (via X platform).
Successors: Mark Oinger and Tim Rödel will continue Rohstoff TV.

Summary Conclusion

Jochen Staiger provides a bullish long-term outlook for gold and silver through 2026 and beyond, supported by macroeconomic trends, central bank buying, supply shortages, and growing industrial demand—especially in silver. He emphasizes physical holdings, diversification, and caution against debt and speculation, highlighting precious metals as essential safe havens amid rising global debt and declining dollar dominance.