'Much Like The ‘90s': Trader Warns Of 40-60% Market Crash | Todd Horwitz

Market / Macro Backdrop & Crash Call

• Core thesis: Warning signs suggest a major equity sell-off even while bull sentiment is currently strong.
• Expected drawdown: 40–60% market crash — not “tomorrow,” but a pretty substantial sell-off when conditions trigger.
• Why (key warning signs cited):
  • A bad economy
  • Shrinking “K” on the top end (wording unclear in the source)
  • Job weakness
  • Housing prices dropping in some areas
  • Other unspecified “warning signs”
• Current setup: The rally is framed as a “retail rally”:
  • Big institutions (e.g., big banks and big funds) are not selling yet
  • Implication: institutions may enter on the sell side later
• Oil as a macro pressure point:
  • The economy allegedly can’t support high oil prices without the “fear factor” of war
  • Oil warning: Even if oil is in a glut, prices remain high due to geopolitics/war risk

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Crypto, Equities Momentum, and Specific Levels

Bitcoin

• Reference level: ~$81,000
• Critical level: $80,000
• Pattern call: “Blowoff bottom” → consolidation → breakout (about two weeks ago)
• Preferred setup: Would like a pullback to ~$78,000–$79,000 to add
• Positioning/commentary: Says he bought Bitcoin stocks and Ethereum (Etherum) stocks that day and is comfortable owning Bitcoin

S&P 500 / Broad Equities

• Markets are described as euphoric (large run-up)
• Warning: sustainability is “virtually impossible” without institutional participation

FOMO / Parabolic Move Warning

• Warns about chase behavior and parabolic overextension, likening it to the 1990s
• Caution: when buyers “run out” and sellers return, these moves should be sold rather than chased

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Company / Sector Mentions & Tactical Views

Intel (INTC)

• Catalyst mentioned: “Apple chip talks” (per the conversation)
• Price action cited:
  • Up ~13% this week
  • ~160% since the beginning of April
• Recommendation: 100% a seller
  • Reason given: rate-of-change / parabolic unsustainability
• Positioning: Already added with a small short position in Micron (implying similar expectations for Intel)
• Upside uncertainty: Acknowledged; mentions hedging framework below

Micron (MU)

• Cited move: Up ~20% overnight on earnings
• Described as a short squeeze / upside breakout

Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL)

• Says he’s not worried about owning profitable mega-caps like Apple/Nvidia
  • Mentions an average ~8.5% YoY growth claim (as characterized broadly)
• However, he’s less comfortable holding them the rest of the year given his broader market outlook

Software / AI-adjacent

• IGV (example referenced):
  • Down ~25% on the year
  • Would buy if it breaks out (consolidation/bottoming thesis)
• Screening rule: If a company doesn’t make money (is not profitable), he’s not inclined to buy
• Meta: Mentioned in context of “robots” and job displacement (macro labor/ripple effects)

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Oil, Fed Policy, and Rate Stance

Oil Price Trajectory

• Prior call: short opportunity around $100/bbl
• Current: oil around $92
• Expectation: oil could fall to the 60s before year-end
  • Explicit target: ~$60s
  • Phrase used: “back in the 60s before the year is out”
• Near-term driver: war/peace headlines
  • Expects spikes if war headlines worsen
  • Believes the downtrend remains

Fed Cuts

• Claims: the Fed won’t cut until inflation falls
• Argues: the Fed should not cut based on preference; suggests only banks benefit from Fed cuts
• Notes: mortgage rates don’t drop much despite rate cuts (relative lag)

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Commodities & “What to Hold” (Explicit Recommendations)

Metals

• Gold
  • Says gold made a bottom (referencing a blowoff bottom around ~4,100)
  • Expects ~$6,000 in the year
  • Expects consolidation; “off to the races” if it reclaims about $4,800–$4,900
  • Adds: buys on dips
  • “Not concerned about owning gold”
• Silver and Platinum
  • Explicitly says he would buy without even thinking about it
  • Later: happy to hold gold, silver, platinum for the rest of the year

Agriculture / Grains

• Comfortable holding grain markets through the rest of the year
• Hogs: would be comfortable, but retracts due to seasonality:
  • “After barbecue season” not so good

Energy

• Says he’d be happy to be short crude for the rest of the year

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Options / Hedging Methodology (Framework)

Primary hedging approach (example: Intel)

• Uses an options structure described as a “1 by 2 backspread” / combination:
  • “Selling a put option and buying two put options for every 100 shares.”
• Net effect described: net short 100 shares, while offsetting cost/risk
• Example risk cap: for Intel, claims the approach risks about ~3% downside
• Re-hedging / adding rule:
  • If the stock falls, he would use option proceeds/coverage to accumulate more shares while protecting downside

Trading style cautions

• Warns against leverage and being “trigger happy”
• Defines “risk” relative to:
  • Time frame
  • Ability to absorb losses without panic
• Emphasizes position sizing so that ability to make money > risk taken

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Technical / Trading Principles Mentioned

Blowoff vs. Consolidation

• Blowoff (straight up / dramatic move) → typically sell
• Consolidation / grind higher → more bullish
• For gold: seeks breakout vs mean reversion

Chart as a “Map”

• Higher highs & higher lows = uptrend
• Double tops/bottoms = consolidation
• Lower highs/lower lows = downtrend

Moving average risk gauge

• References 20/50/200-day moving averages
• “Old Dow theory”:
  • Long above the 200-day MA
  • Short below (or re-enter when it changes regime)

Mean reversion

• If moves get “too fast,” expects reversion back toward the mean

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Performance Metrics / Numbers Explicitly Cited

• Market crash probability/extent: 40–60%
• Bitcoin:
  • Critical: $80,000
  • Pullback target: $78k–$79k
  • Breakout from consolidation; mentions a low about a month prior
• Intel:
  • +13% this week
  • +~160% since early April
  • Mentions potential ~30% correction
• Micron: +~20% overnight on earnings
• Oil:
  • From ~$92 to target $60s before year-end
  • References “under $70 in December”
  • Earlier “short opportunity around $100”
• Gold:
  • Blowoff bottom referenced around 4,100
  • Targets $6,000
  • Breakout trigger $4,800–$4,900

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Disclosures / Disclaimers

• The provided subtitles do not include a clear “not financial advice” disclaimer (as described in the summary).
• The speaker emphasizes risk management and claims hedging structures limit downside (including “mathematical certainty” language).

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Presenters / Sources

• Todd “Bubba” Horowitz
  • Founder, bubbrading.com
  • Also referenced with go.batrading.com / go.betrading.com in the outro
• David (interviewer)
  • Mentions the show and provides context (e.g., “David Lin” in the sponsor ad read)