Summary of "LES SECRETS DES PROS POUR RÉUSSIR EN CRYPTO."

Summary of "LES SECRETS DES PROS POUR RÉUSSIR EN CRYPTO"

This video features Hermes, a seasoned crypto investor since 2016 and founder of the Bitcoin Kings community, sharing deep insights, strategies, and analyses about cryptocurrency investing, market cycles, and blockchain technology. The discussion covers Bitcoin’s role, altcoins, market psychology, technical indicators, investment methodologies, and future outlooks for crypto markets.

Main Financial Strategies and Investment Insights

Bitcoin’s Role: Bitcoin is positioned not as a replacement for the current financial system but as a safeguard or “store of value” akin to digital gold, primarily for activists and those seeking financial freedom. It is deflationary and meant to exist alongside traditional systems, not replace them.
DCA vs. Four Kings Strategy:
- Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) is not the best strategy according to Hermes.
- The preferred approach is the Four Kings Strategy, which uses technical and fundamental analysis to identify rational investment zones based on three conditions (not fully detailed but tied to structure, bullish reversals, and pullbacks).
- This strategy is supported by a custom indicator using a 50-period moving average, providing signals on when to buy or sell.
Investment Priorities:
- Have a reserve of 3-6 months of salary saved before investing in crypto due to volatility.
- Aim to own at least 0.1 Bitcoin as a form of insurance and store of value.
- To outperform Bitcoin and the market, invest beyond Bitcoin in the broader crypto ecosystem, especially Ethereum and other top-cap altcoins.
Altcoins and Ecosystem Focus:
- Investing in projects you understand and that have real usage is critical. Hermes emphasizes investing in what the majority uses rather than the “best” or most decentralized project.
- Ethereum remains the most promising blockchain despite recent cycles, due to its dominance in DeFi and ecosystem maturity. Hermes estimates Ethereum’s fair value around $5,000 (vs. ~$2,100 at the time).
- Cardano (ADA) aims to compete with Ethereum but has struggled to gain traction and adoption.
- Solana is recognized for speed and low costs but lacks decentralization; however, many users prioritize usability over decentralization.
- XRP is highly controversial and opaque; Hermes advises caution and not to buy tokens/projects you don’t understand.
Tokenomics and Project Evaluation: When assessing crypto projects, consider:
- Founders and team credibility
- User base and community
- Investors backing the project
- The problem the project solves
- The token’s utility and constraints (tokenomics)
Most projects are not truly decentralized, and tokens often represent assets rather than equity or governance shares.
Market Cyclicality and Price Predictions:
- Hermes uses PlanB’s stock-to-flow model and Fibonacci extensions to analyze Bitcoin’s 4-year halving cycles.
- He predicted Bitcoin would drop to ~$12,500 in Nov 2022 (it hit $15,500).
- His current forecast is Bitcoin reaching around $228,000-$230,000 by October 27, 2025.
- Bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto market is expected to decline to about 20%, similar to gold’s role in traditional markets.
- The crypto ecosystem needs to outperform Bitcoin by 300% by late 2025 to remain viable.
Technical Indicators Used: Hermes relies on three main technical indicators for trading and investment timing:
- RSI (Relative Strength Index) with a 21-period setting, used to identify trend breakouts and price momentum.
- Williams %R on a weekly basis, combined with a 13-period moving average, to identify overbought/oversold conditions. Buying in overbought or selling in oversold zones is considered unwise.
- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (Ichimoku Cloud), used for identifying major trends and support/resistance levels, including temporalizing trend reversals.
These indicators are combined to create confluences for more reliable buy/sell signals.
Trading vs. Investing:
- Trading is mainly technical analysis-driven, focusing on price action and economic calendar events, ignoring news and fundamentals on short timeframes.
- Investing involves accumulating crypto assets based on fundamentals and technical rationality. Hermes uses about 20% of his capital for trading and the rest for long-term investments.
Risks and Market Realities:
- Crypto is risky and volatile; investors must be prepared for emotional swings and potential losses.
- 90%+ of current crypto projects may disappear within 5 years.
- Crypto will not replace traditional banks or fiat currencies like the Euro or Dollar anytime soon.