Summary of "Dunia Berubah, Anehnya Kebijakan Tetap Sama: Viral Based Policy & Testing the Waters #IntrigueRK"

Overview

The video discusses significant global and Indonesian economic changes, emphasizing that despite these transformations, economic policies remain largely outdated and ineffective. The conversation focuses on how shifts in consumer behavior, employment patterns, and societal structures require a fundamental rethinking of policy approaches.

Key Points

1. Changing Economic Landscape

Indonesia’s economy is slowing down after benefiting from a commodity boom (coal, palm oil).
External factors such as China’s economic slowdown and US-China trade tensions impact demand and prices.
Heavy dependence on commodities makes Indonesia vulnerable to global fluctuations.

2. Shift in Consumer Behavior and Society

Consumption patterns have changed, especially post-pandemic, with people becoming more selective and cautious.
Retail sales of big-ticket items like cars have declined.
Housing policies have failed to address real needs; many affordable houses remain unoccupied due to location and lifestyle mismatches.
Younger generations prefer renting, influenced by lower purchasing power and different lifestyle priorities (technology, brands, flexibility).
Family sizes are shrinking, impacting social structures and care dynamics.

3. Emergence of the Gig Economy

Increasing numbers of workers, especially millennials, engage in gig and informal sectors with irregular income.
Irregular income makes it difficult to access traditional financial services like mortgages.
Gig economy complicates taxation efforts since many workers fall outside formal tax systems, affecting government revenue.

4. Employment Challenges

Decline in full-time employment; rise in part-time and informal jobs creates instability.
Intense job market competition; graduates struggle to find work quickly.
Growing layoffs and industrial unrest raise concerns about social instability.
Government programs (housing subsidies, nutritious meals, cooperatives) require better integration and focus on job creation and workforce absorption.

5. Investment and Competitiveness

Neighboring countries like Cambodia and Vietnam attract investments by offering conducive regulations, competitive labor, and investor-friendly environments.
Indonesia must improve regulatory clarity, workforce productivity, and reduce bureaucratic hurdles to attract and retain investments.
Investor concerns include productivity, labor skills, and capital efficiency (incremental capital output ratio).

6. Wage and Productivity Dynamics

Workers demand wage increases (8-10%) higher than what businesses can afford (4-5%), creating tension.
Balanced dialogue and productivity improvements are needed alongside wage adjustments.
Government subsidies and social assistance play roles but are not long-term solutions.

7. Policy Implementation Issues

Government policies often follow a “viral-based” or “testing the waters” pattern—introducing policies hastily and retracting them after public backlash (e.g., VAT increase, LPG restrictions, electricity discounts).
This undermines credibility and investor confidence.
Policies need strong, research-based foundations, clear goals, and inclusive stakeholder engagement to be effective and sustainable.
Better policy communication and academic backing are necessary to build public trust.

8. Government Spending and Efficiency

Government budget efficiency is crucial; unnecessary expenditures (e.g., frequent official car replacements) should be minimized.
Excessive austerity in government spending can stifle economic activity, especially in sectors reliant on public projects (construction, hospitality).
Corruption and leakages in government spending reduce effectiveness and public trust.
Regional governments’ efficiency measures should balance economic stimulus and fiscal responsibility.

9. Adapting to Change

Economic policies must evolve to match changing consumer behaviors, technological shifts, and societal transformations.
Stakeholders—including government, businesses, and civil society—must collaborate to innovate and remain relevant in a rapidly changing world.

10. Additional Notes

[[Coffee exports](https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0D7JS9TWS?tag=dtdgstoreid08-20)](https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0D6LJYL48?tag=dtdgstoreid08-20) (Arabica, Robusta, and unique Indonesian Exelsa coffee) remain a bright spot in exports and employment.
The discussion highlights the importance of multi-stakeholder collaboration in addressing economic challenges.

Presenters/Contributors

Prof. Telisa – Economist, main guest
Host/Interviewer – Referred to as Prof. in conversation

Conclusion

The discussion concludes with a call to adapt economic thinking and policies to the realities of a changing society to ensure sustainable growth and prosperity.