Что происходит с криптой и как на этом заработать | Выжимка из эфира 12.02.2026

Key assets, tickers and instruments mentioned

• Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Ripple/XRP (XRP), Dogecoin (DOGE), Litecoin (LTC), stablecoins (general).
• Commodities / benchmarks: Gold.
• Equities / market references: Apple, Nvidia, total stock-market capitalization.
• Instruments: spot coins, ETFs (bitcoin/ether & some altcoin ETFs), options (calls, puts), derivatives, DeFi protocols, CBDC (central bank digital currency).
• Exchanges / venues: Deribit (options), Bybit (options), Coinbase (exchange / lobbying actor).
• Regulators / jurisdictions: U.S. Congress (banking & agricultural committees), SEC, CFTC, EU MiCA; countries mentioned: Singapore, UAE, Switzerland.

Big-picture market facts and macro context

• Total crypto market cap (snapshot Wednesday morning): ≈ $2.3 trillion (about half of last year’s peak ≈ $4.2T).
• Bitcoin market cap: moved from ≈ $2.5T → ≈ $1.3T during the described decline.
• Ethereum market cap: ≈ $545B → ≈ $235B.
• Altcoins together: ≈ $917B → ≈ $449B.
• Comparison benchmarks:
  • Gold market cap ≈ $35T; BTC cap is ≈ 26× smaller.
  • Total global stock-market cap cited ≈ $142T; crypto < 2% of that.
• ETF balances:
  • Bitcoin ETFs: peak ≈ 1,362,000 BTC (~7% of mined supply) → ≈ 1,235,000 BTC (as of 9 Feb). ETF-held BTC declined <10% while BTC price fell ~50% from peak.
  • Ethereum ETFs: ≈ 6.72M ETH → ≈ 6.1M ETH (now ≈ 5% of ETH supply).
• Market cap / realized cap ratios:
  • BTC: ≈ 1.24 (market ~20–25% above realized capitalization).
  • ETH: ≈ 0.84 (market ~15% below realized capitalization — in the red by that metric).
  • SOL: ≈ 0.6 (market cap ~60% of realized cap — ≈40% of holders “underwater”).
• Corporate holder example: a “Strategy” company reported ≈ 715,000 BTC on balance, total spend ≈ $55B since 2020, average acquisition ≈ $75,000/BTC (implying large unrealized losses on those purchases).

Important dates / regulatory timeline

• Three U.S. draft laws discussed:
  • Anti‑CBDC (prohibiting a Fed-issued digital dollar) — stalled in the Senate.
  • Genius Act (stablecoin issuance rules) — fully signed.
  • Clarity Act (market/regulator clarity) — withdrawn for revision; vote cancelled on Jan 15, 2026. The host correlates this withdrawal with the start of BTC’s decline.
• Host expectation: meaningful U.S. crypto regulatory clarity unlikely before end‑2026; laws possibly enacted late 2026 and effective in 1H‑2027 — implying institutional on‑ramps delayed ~1–2 years.

Why the U.S. regulatory package stalled (four categories)

1. Politics
   • Memecoin-related political activity (linked to Trump/family) eroded bipartisan support and sparked partisan backlash.
2. Economic / industry lobbying
   • Banks lobbied against interest-paying stablecoins; resulting amendments limited interest generation in stablecoins and DeFi, constraining DeFi yield models.
3. Regulator turf war
   • Amendments expanded SEC authorities (industry disliked this vs. CFTC), prompting withdrawals of support from industry actors (e.g., Coinbase).
4. Privacy / KYC concerns
   • Banking-committee amendments would force KYC on DeFi protocols, undermining privacy/anonymity — a showstopper for parts of the industry.

Market implications and tactical observations

• Strategic view: blockchain/crypto adoption path unchanged, but institutional entry and “big finance” integration are likely delayed by regulatory uncertainty (~1–2 years).
• Broad decline: BTC, ETH and most alts fell roughly in parallel, making many valuation metrics more attractive than at prior peaks, though not uniformly an extreme bargain.
• ETFs as structural stabilizers:
  • ETF holdings have declined much less than spot prices, indicating a sticky passive component and active flow behavior (example days: ~35k BTC outflow one day, ~39k BTC inflow the next).
  • Approved crypto ETFs (since Jan 2026) have not meaningfully redirected capital into altcoins; most altcoins have negligible ETF ownership (<1% of circulating supply). Solana is an exception (~1–1.5% in ETFs).
• Altcoin valuation: SOL, XRP, LTC, DOGE generally cheap by realized-cap metrics, but still vulnerable to further declines relative to prior lows.

Option-based strategies described — “buy-and-income” on ETH

Host proposes two main option-based strategies and a protective combo, illustrated with ETH spot ≈ $1,942 and Deribit option quotes. These are multi‑month / ~1‑year passive positions.

A. Covered call (buy spot + sell call)

Example:

1. Buy 1 ETH spot at $1,942.
2. Sell 1 call, strike $2,000, expiry 25 Dec 2026 (317 days), premium received $492.

Outcomes and key numbers:

• Net cash outlay = $1,942 − $492 = $1,450.
• If ETH ≥ $2,000 at expiry: payoff = ($2,000 − $1,942) + $492 = $550 profit.
• Max profit = $550 (capped) → ≈ 38% over 317 days (~44% annualized).
• Break-even = $1,450.
• Max loss = $1,450 (if ETH → $0).
• Risk profile: capped upside vs significant downside if ETH collapses.

B. Conservative covered call (higher premium / lower strike)

Example variation:

• Sell call strike $1,600 for premium $672.
• Break-even = $1,942 − $672 = $1,270.
• Max profit reduces to $330 (≈ 26% over term → ≈ 30% annualized).
• Lower downside exposure thanks to larger premium.

C. Covered call with protective put (buy spot + sell call + buy put)

Example:

1. Buy 1 ETH at $1,942.
2. Sell 1x $2,000 call for $492.
3. Buy 1x $1,000 put for $89.

Outcomes and key numbers:

• Net outlay = $1,942 − $492 + $89 = $1,539.
• Max profit = $550 − $89 = $461.
• Break-even ≈ $1,481.
• Max loss limited to ≈ $539 (net outlay minus guaranteed floor from put).
• Trade-off: reduced upside, much smaller maximum downside; lower tail risk if ETH crashes below the put strike.

General tactical notes on the option strategies

• Strikes and expiries can be adjusted to tailor premium income, breakeven points, capped upside and downside protection.
• Benefits in the current environment: generate income (theta) while effectively lowering entry cost (premium offsets spot purchase) and providing a cushion against further declines.
• Risks: if the asset collapses below protective levels (or to zero), losses remain possible unless fully insured with puts (which are costly).
• Host recommends these as long (multi‑month / 1‑year) passive positions — holding through the term is the illustrated approach.

Execution, liquidity and practical cautions

• Preferred venue: Deribit — good options liquidity and market depth; video examples use Deribit quotes/screenshots.
• Alternative: Bybit can be used but liquidity is weaker. Host suggests using Deribit mid‑prices as reference and placing orders on Bybit, noting market makers/arbitrageurs sometimes fill across venues.
• Account caveat: Deribit reportedly does not accept Russian passports (per host); account opening may require other documents/locations.
• Liquidity caution: some strikes and altcoin options markets have poor liquidity — slippage and inability to fill large sizes are real risks.

Explicit numbers, price targets and risk scenarios mentioned

• BTC downside scenario: if market/realized cap ratio falls to ≈ 0.8 (past extremes), implied BTC price could fall to ≈ $40k–$45k from levels discussed.
• ETH option example prices:
  • ETH spot ≈ $1,942.
  • 25 Dec 2026 call strike $2,000 premium $492.
  • Alternative call strike $1,600 premium $672.
  • Protective put strike $1,000 premium $89.
• ETF holdings and percentages:
  • BTC ETFs ≈ 1.235M BTC (~<10% decline from peak holdings); peak ETFs held ≈ 7% of mined supply.
  • ETH ETFs ≈ 6.1M ETH (~5% of supply).
• Corporate BTC buyer: “Strategy” firm purchased ≈ 715,000 BTC at an average ≈ $75,000, spending ≈ $55B — currently with unrealized losses on those purchases.

Recommendations and cautions (explicit)

• Strategic: expect U.S. regulatory delay; do not assume immediate institutional capital inflows until clarity emerges (likely post‑2026, effective ~2027).
• Tactical: consider income-producing option strategies (covered calls, call+put combos) to buy spot with downside cushions while collecting premiums.
• Execution: prefer Deribit for liquidity; if using Bybit, watch wider spreads and reduced liquidity — confirm fills carefully.
• Risk warnings: regulation, DeFi restrictions (interest bans, KYC), and political factors can cause further downside; option strategies reduce but do not eliminate downside unless fully insured with puts (which add cost).
• Behavioral: avoid buying everything at once; model scenarios and strike choices on paper; be prepared for further falls.

Disclosures and phrasing from the video

“Do your own research, as Mr. Mutko says.”

• The host frames the strategies as educational and non‑guaranteed. He notes risks and the need for viewers to compute outcomes themselves.
• Practical admission: the host recommends Deribit but acknowledges account restrictions for some nationalities.

Presenters and sources cited

• Presenter / channel: Andrey (Around Skripko).
• Referenced platforms / companies: Coinbase, Deribit, Bybit, unnamed corporate “Strategy” buyer, U.S. Congress (banking & agricultural committees), SEC, CFTC.
• Regulatory frameworks and jurisdictions mentioned: U.S. draft laws (Anti‑CBDC, Genius Act, Clarity Act), EU MiCA, Singapore, UAE, Switzerland.
• Social media reference: banking committee head’s announcement on X (Twitter).