When to Sell Your Stocks in 2026

Core Thesis: Retail Losses Come Mostly From “Selling”

The presenter argues that most investors lose money primarily because they don’t have an exit plan, and then they either:

• Sell too early, or
• Keep losers too long

A key claim is:

“When to sell” is ~10x more important than “what to buy.”

Framing emphasizes that price action is heavily driven by institutional demand/supply—i.e., whether Wall Street is buying or selling.

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The Framework: A Three-Step Process of Selling

The presenter teaches a repeatable three-part selling framework:

1) Protect Your Investment (Exit Rule)

Investors (lower volatility): 150DMA exit rule

• Use the 150-day moving average (150DMA).
• If price crosses below the 150DMA → sell/exit.

Traders (higher volatility): 50DMA exit rule

• Use the 50-day moving average (50DMA).
• If price moves below the 50DMA → exit more quickly.

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2) Take Profits (Stop/“Profit Lock” Discipline)

The presenter emphasizes: “Sell first.” The exit level should be decided before buying.

They repeat three “covenants” (non-negotiable rules):

1. Never buy a stock below the 150DMA (investor rule).
2. Never ignore your sell rule once set.
3. Never make exceptions (“it’ll bounce back tomorrow” is rejected).

The approach includes broker automation, such as conditional sell orders and stop-loss style orders, reframed as “profit locks.”

They also discuss a common beginner mistake:

• Beginners often set arbitrary stops like -5% to -10%
• The presenter prefers structured rules tied to moving averages and recent lows, rather than random % thresholds.

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3) Automate the Process

To avoid needing to watch charts constantly:

• They mention TradeVision (tradevision.io / tradevision.com) for alerts.
• The presenter claims monitoring is mostly done on Sundays (market closed), using alerts/news triggers for oversight.
• They reference a free month offer (link provided in the talk).

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Evidence & Examples Cited

The speaker uses numerous examples to contrast drawdowns vs. opportunity cost and motivate rule-based exits.

“Big Losers” vs “Winners” in the Same Period (6-month comparisons)

Down ~20–40%

• SoFi (-41%)
• Lululemon (-31%)
• Robinhood (-33%)
• PayPal (-20%)

Up ~25–50%

• Caterpillar (+49%)
• Marathon Petroleum (+46%)
• Valero (+43%)
• Zoom (+30%)
• Phillips (+28%)
• Google / Alphabet (+26%)

Message: Within the same market regime, outcomes diverge sharply—supporting the idea that timing and selling discipline matter.

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Sell-Rule Demonstrations and Stock Stories

PayPal

• Claims a 150DMA signal would have triggered an early exit after a major rally.
• Later in the talk, PayPal is said to be down ~84% from its high.

ServiceNow (Buy-and-Hold Fallacy Illustration)

• Claims a $50k position in ServiceNow would be ~down 51% during the referenced window.
• Opportunity cost example versus Google (Alphabet), purportedly up ~157% in the same comparison.
• Hypothetical outcomes after one year:
  • ServiceNow: ~$22,800
  • Google: ~$120,350

Micron (Risk Control Testimonial)

• A student reportedly stopped out of Micron and the stock was +22% after only six days—used to validate disciplined exits.

AMD / “Paper Profit Reversal” Theme

• Several anecdotal stop-loss / re-entry stories are mentioned (no additional new numeric claims beyond earlier examples).

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Market/Stock Examples Used to Argue Against Long Holds Without an Exit Plan

Plug Power (PLUG)

• Presented in a higher-risk, trader-like framing.
• Claims that following the 150-day rule would have sold ~55% below the top.
• Also suggests current holders could be around -95% from peak (implying a major reversal risk).

OP (unclear “OP five”)

• Used to illustrate that taking smaller losses via selling can be preferable to waiting for deeper declines.

Palantir (PLTR) and Other “Picked Stocks”

• Briefly mentioned as examples of stock-picking outcomes:
  • Palantir, SoFi, Broadcom (AVGO), Nvidia (NVDA), HIMS, Elf (ELF)
• Some underperformance is acknowledged, but the talk does not provide precise figures for each.

Microsoft (MSFT) (Live Chart Discussion)

• Mentions:
  • 150DMA exit around ~$490
  • Lows near ~$360
• Investor vs trader distinction:
  • Traders may act while price is near levels
  • Investors wait for re-cross behavior relative to the 150DMA.

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Index/ETF vs Individual Stock Distinction

• S&P 500 / indices: argued to have a “survivorship mechanism” (if one firm fails, the index composition adapts, unlike a single stock going to zero).
• A rough expectation cited: ~10% per year average for the index.
• QQQ example:
  • Claimed ~15 years for QQQ to return to prior levels after a dot-com-era starting point—used to stress the need for long horizons.

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Recommendations and Cautions

Explicit Recommendations

• Investors: use the 150DMA sell rule.
• Traders: use the 50DMA sell rule.
• Use stop-loss / profit-lock automation
• Decide sell points before entering a position.
• Avoid “conviction disease” (holding great companies after they stop receiving institutional support).

Cautions / Disclaimers

• Early disclaimer: the presenter is not a registered financial adviser and will not tell viewers “what to buy and sell.”
• Strong cautions include:
  • Don’t buy below the 150DMA (investor rule)
  • Don’t ignore exit rules
  • Be wary of over-reliance on buy-and-hold for individual stocks (risk of large drawdowns and long stagnation)
  • Avoid margin (“Don’t use margin, children”) due to forced liquidation risk
    • Example: silver down ~30%, causing margin calls within 24 hours

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Risk Management and Portfolio Construction Logic

Position Sizing by Risk Contribution

• Keeps worst-case per-position impact around ~1% of portfolio.
• Example math from the talk:
  • 5 stocks at 20% each → a 20% drop in one ≈ ~4% portfolio loss
  • 30 stocks at ~3.3% each → a 20% drop in one ≈ ~0.6% portfolio loss
• Mentions a “sleep-well” zone around 3%–5% position sizing.

Stops Placement Caution

• Too-tight stops can “kick you out” early and cause you to miss later rallies.
• The presenter maps stop levels into tiers:
  • Level-2 (“seat belt/airbag”) = moving averages
  • Level-3 nuance = support, recent lows, and volatility-specific behavior

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Notable Tools / Services Mentioned

• TradeVision (tradevision.io / tradevision.com)
  • For alerts when a stock crosses the 150DMA/50DMA sell lines
  • Mentions a free month offer

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Tickers / Assets Mentioned

Stocks / tickers (explicitly or implied)

• NVDA (Nvidia), AVGO (Broadcom), AMD (AMD), MSFT (Microsoft)
• GOOGL / Google (Alphabet)
• SOFI (SoFi), PYPL (PayPal), HOOD (Robinhood)
• PLTR (Palantir), ELF (Elf Beauty), HIMS (Hims & Hers Health)
• PLUG (Plug Power), MU (Micron)
• CAT (Caterpillar), VLO (Valero), MPC (Marathon Petroleum)
• Others mentioned but with unclear/unstated tickers: T-Mobile, ADP, Avis (CAR), Netflix (NFLX), Archer, Duolingo (DUOL), Joby, and Paycom/PayON (unclear)
• Additional mention: INTC (Intel), AAPL (Apple) implied, and TSMC (listed; ticker not given)

ETFs / indices

• S&P 500 (index)
• QQQ (ETF; implied)

Commodity / precious metal

• Silver (physical silver discussed)

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Presenter / Source Mentions

• Felix Prin (also shown in subtitles with variant spellings)
• Winston (co-presenter)
• Goat Academy / Go Academy
• Mentors referenced generally as “Wall Street mentors” and hedge fund managers, including Stanley Druckenmiller (subtitle spelling varies)
• TradeVision
• Carlos (mentioned in a testimonial story)