Sometimes the Best Trade Is No Trade — Why I'm in Wait and See Mode

Market / Macro Read (Tape/Technical + Volatility)

Stocks / Indices

• Market slightly down: about 11 points.
• Nasdaq: down roughly ~0.5% or slightly more.
• Advance/Decline (AD): positive even though the broader market is down.
• Volatility (VIX): ~26.38, described as roughly in line with the prior day (elevated fear/volatility).

Momentum / Indicator Discussion

• AD is cited at a high of 210, with the peak around ~11:50.
• After the peak, AD is described as “down down down.”
• The speaker frames a conditional expectation: if things are “forced,” they expect neutral to bullish behavior over the next ~10 days, because price is said to be over a key zone.

Support / Resistance Methodology (“Big Green Monster” Tool)

• They duplicate a prior drawing and align tick marks to create levels.
• Key claim: the 50% line often behaves as an area of support/resistance.
• Practical interpretation:
  • If price breaks it, then support can become resistance.
• Mentioned scenarios:
  • Possible move back toward VWAP.
  • Possible return into the opening 30-minute range.

---

Instruments Referenced (and What Was Said)

ES (S&P 500 e-mini futures)

• Referenced as “this is ES.”
• No explicit price given in the excerpt.

SPX / “MBS”

• Mentioned humorously: “Does he trade SPX or MBS?”
• No trading guidance beyond banter.

Gold

• Gold “taken a tumble” to 52.48 (units not specified; likely chart value).
• Reported up $1.80 today after gap-down behavior (“gap… gap… gap down”).
• Potential support/base:
  • “base right at the point of control” / value area low
• Conditional interest:
  • Speaker says they wouldn’t trade, but if gold traders are considering a long, it may be tied to revisiting POC.

Crude Oil (CL)

• CL is up about “four bucks” today.
• Prior dip: down into roughly 86 / 85–86.
• Geopolitical uncertainty:
  • Iran talks: Trump announces they’re going well, while Iran reportedly says they are not discussing anything.
• Despite the rise, resistance is identified:
  • Double top around ~100, described as a hard level to break.
• “Relief yesterday” context:
  • Price dropped near the mid-80s, then rebounded.
• Longer upside speculation (not speaker’s primary call):
  • Crude could reach 150+
  • Rule of thumb: each $10 rise in crude ≈ $0.20 at the pump overall.

Bonds / Bond Markets

• Bonds: “been on a little tear to the downside,” then “popped back up to the value area low.”
• Speaker notes a relationship that is usually true may not be true now:
  • “normally bonds go down, markets go up”
  • Here, that relationship is not necessarily holding
• No specific yield/price number cited.

MP

• MP is down 3%.
• Support areas mentioned:
  • ~120 line
  • ~50.25 (value area low)
• Gap discussion:
  • Gap described as “kind of bullish,” but also flagged as overbought for the fair value zone below.
  • Expectation: they may visit the zone again.

“Remix” Stock (chart name)

• “Not moving much today.”
• Mentions a gap fill:
  • Expectation to fill the gap and go back toward ~89.54 (displayed as 8954).
• Another value area low:
  • around 16.42
• Point of control referenced:
  • near 17.7 for related setups.

UUU

• “UUU flat on the day.”
• Also referenced as “little bullish” on a point of control / gap context.
• No clear expansion of the ticker given in subtitles.

---

Explicit Trading Posture / Recommendations

Main Call

• “There’s really not a trade to put on today… Just not a day to do it.”

Wait-and-See / Risk Posture

• Since the market is “hanging there,” they keep exposure measured.
• They emphasize theta not overpriced.
• Maximum allowable theta / net-legs constraint:
  • Current theta ~0.002 (near a good level)
  • Max 0.003 (per their plan)
• They say they can put on more trades if needed, but choose not to today.

---

Options / Portfolio Construction & Risk Metrics

MES (e-mini / S&P options or strategies)

• Shortest term noted: 7 days.
• Some positions roll off:
  • subtitles: “3 days roll off”
  • Previously more conservative (14/21-day), now described as “more art.”
• Risk / Greeks / buying power controls:
  • Theta: around ~0.02 on “net legs” (later math indicates ~0.002; subtitles are inconsistent)
  • Delta: ~26 (“very delta neutral”)
  • Buying power: ~35%
  • VIX condition: “With a VIX of 20 or above is exactly where you want to be” at 35%

VIX Trend / Interpretation

• VIX low in December 24, then trending up steadily.
• Even with war-driven up/down, it remains upward.
• Interpretation: fear is increasing.

Other Options Position Notes

• “Got 115 days” (holding period / option tenor).
• Put debit spreads: “moving right along nicely.”
• Additional Greeks/constraints:
  • “theta 136, buying power 135” (meaning unclear; likely internal scaling per subtitles)

---

Key Numbers & Levels Pulled From Subtitles

• Nasdaq: ~-0.5% (slightly more)
• Market down: 11 points
• VIX: 26.38
• AD high: 210 at ~11:50
• Gold:
  • 52.48, +$1.80 today
  • base near POC / value area low
• CL (crude):
  • previously down to ~86 / 85–86, now +~$4
  • resistance ~100
  • speculative target 150+
  • rule: +$10 crude ≈ $0.20 at the pump
• MP:
  • -3%
  • support 120
  • value area low 50.25
• Remix:
  • gap fill target ~89.54
  • value area low 16.42
  • near 17.7 POC
• MES / Options posture:
  • Theta ~0.002 (goal), max 0.003
  • Delta ~26
  • Buying power ~35%
  • preference condition: VIX >= 20

---

Disclosures / Disclaimers

• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the provided subtitles.

---

Presenters / Sources

Participants

• Main presenter: “Bobby”
• Others mentioned in the room:
  • Brandy, Grant, Dwayne, Char, “Maythe 111 great again” (as called out)

Referenced External / Other

• ESPN: mentioned in an anecdote context (no finance source cited).
• Professional Cornhole Association of America: referenced humorously (not a finance institution).