Summary of "Sometimes the Best Trade Is No Trade — Why I'm in Wait and See Mode"
Market / Macro Read (Tape/Technical + Volatility)
Stocks / Indices
- Market slightly down: about 11 points.
- Nasdaq: down roughly ~0.5% or slightly more.
- Advance/Decline (AD): positive even though the broader market is down.
- Volatility (VIX): ~26.38, described as roughly in line with the prior day (elevated fear/volatility).
Momentum / Indicator Discussion
- AD is cited at a high of 210, with the peak around ~11:50.
- After the peak, AD is described as “down down down.”
- The speaker frames a conditional expectation: if things are “forced,” they expect neutral to bullish behavior over the next ~10 days, because price is said to be over a key zone.
Support / Resistance Methodology (“Big Green Monster” Tool)
- They duplicate a prior drawing and align tick marks to create levels.
- Key claim: the 50% line often behaves as an area of support/resistance.
- Practical interpretation:
- If price breaks it, then support can become resistance.
- Mentioned scenarios:
- Possible move back toward VWAP.
- Possible return into the opening 30-minute range.
Instruments Referenced (and What Was Said)
ES (S&P 500 e-mini futures)
- Referenced as “this is ES.”
- No explicit price given in the excerpt.
SPX / “MBS”
- Mentioned humorously: “Does he trade SPX or MBS?”
- No trading guidance beyond banter.
Gold
- Gold “taken a tumble” to 52.48 (units not specified; likely chart value).
- Reported up $1.80 today after gap-down behavior (“gap… gap… gap down”).
- Potential support/base:
- “base right at the point of control” / value area low
- Conditional interest:
- Speaker says they wouldn’t trade, but if gold traders are considering a long, it may be tied to revisiting POC.
Crude Oil (CL)
- CL is up about “four bucks” today.
- Prior dip: down into roughly 86 / 85–86.
- Geopolitical uncertainty:
- Iran talks: Trump announces they’re going well, while Iran reportedly says they are not discussing anything.
- Despite the rise, resistance is identified:
- Double top around ~100, described as a hard level to break.
- “Relief yesterday” context:
- Price dropped near the mid-80s, then rebounded.
- Longer upside speculation (not speaker’s primary call):
- Crude could reach 150+
- Rule of thumb: each $10 rise in crude ≈ $0.20 at the pump overall.
Bonds / Bond Markets
- Bonds: “been on a little tear to the downside,” then “popped back up to the value area low.”
- Speaker notes a relationship that is usually true may not be true now:
- “normally bonds go down, markets go up”
- Here, that relationship is not necessarily holding
- No specific yield/price number cited.
MP
- MP is down 3%.
- Support areas mentioned:
- ~120 line
- ~50.25 (value area low)
- Gap discussion:
- Gap described as “kind of bullish,” but also flagged as overbought for the fair value zone below.
- Expectation: they may visit the zone again.
“Remix” Stock (chart name)
- “Not moving much today.”
- Mentions a gap fill:
- Expectation to fill the gap and go back toward ~89.54 (displayed as 8954).
- Another value area low:
- around 16.42
- Point of control referenced:
- near 17.7 for related setups.
UUU
- “UUU flat on the day.”
- Also referenced as “little bullish” on a point of control / gap context.
- No clear expansion of the ticker given in subtitles.
Explicit Trading Posture / Recommendations
Main Call
- “There’s really not a trade to put on today… Just not a day to do it.”
Wait-and-See / Risk Posture
- Since the market is “hanging there,” they keep exposure measured.
- They emphasize theta not overpriced.
- Maximum allowable theta / net-legs constraint:
- Current theta ~0.002 (near a good level)
- Max 0.003 (per their plan)
- They say they can put on more trades if needed, but choose not to today.
Options / Portfolio Construction & Risk Metrics
MES (e-mini / S&P options or strategies)
- Shortest term noted: 7 days.
- Some positions roll off:
- subtitles: “3 days roll off”
- Previously more conservative (14/21-day), now described as “more art.”
- Risk / Greeks / buying power controls:
- Theta: around ~0.02 on “net legs” (later math indicates ~0.002; subtitles are inconsistent)
- Delta: ~26 (“very delta neutral”)
- Buying power: ~35%
- VIX condition: “With a VIX of 20 or above is exactly where you want to be” at 35%
VIX Trend / Interpretation
- VIX low in December 24, then trending up steadily.
- Even with war-driven up/down, it remains upward.
- Interpretation: fear is increasing.
Other Options Position Notes
- “Got 115 days” (holding period / option tenor).
- Put debit spreads: “moving right along nicely.”
- Additional Greeks/constraints:
- “theta 136, buying power 135” (meaning unclear; likely internal scaling per subtitles)
Key Numbers & Levels Pulled From Subtitles
- Nasdaq: ~-0.5% (slightly more)
- Market down: 11 points
- VIX: 26.38
- AD high: 210 at ~11:50
- Gold:
- 52.48, +$1.80 today
- base near POC / value area low
- CL (crude):
- previously down to ~86 / 85–86, now +~$4
- resistance ~100
- speculative target 150+
- rule: +$10 crude ≈ $0.20 at the pump
- MP:
- -3%
- support 120
- value area low 50.25
- Remix:
- gap fill target ~89.54
- value area low 16.42
- near 17.7 POC
- MES / Options posture:
- Theta ~0.002 (goal), max 0.003
- Delta ~26
- Buying power ~35%
- preference condition: VIX >= 20
Disclosures / Disclaimers
- No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the provided subtitles.
Presenters / Sources
Participants
- Main presenter: “Bobby”
- Others mentioned in the room:
- Brandy, Grant, Dwayne, Char, “Maythe 111 great again” (as called out)
Referenced External / Other
- ESPN: mentioned in an anecdote context (no finance source cited).
- Professional Cornhole Association of America: referenced humorously (not a finance institution).
Category
Finance
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