Summary of ROSES CLII Joshua Miller, University of Melbourne, "Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy Five Years On"
Joshua Miller from the University of Melbourne presents a seminar on the "Surprised by the hot hand fallacy Five Years On," discussing the concept of the hot hand fallacy and its implications in sports economics. The seminar covers various papers challenging the traditional belief that the hot hand does not exist, including a surprise paper, a cold shower paper, and a three-point contest paper. Miller explains bias correction in the original study and highlights recent empirical studies suggesting evidence of the hot hand phenomenon in basketball and other domains.
- The study involves semi-professional male basketball players and surveys to measure the accuracy of hot hand beliefs, showing individual evidence of the hot hand effect with improved shooting percentages after hitting multiple shots in a row.
- Different datasets, including one from Israeli Olympians, support the existence of the hot hand effect, emphasizing the importance of individual hot hand evidence and variability in player responses to hot hand situations.
Players adjust their defense based on a shooter's performance, but drastic changes are made towards the end of the game. The research agenda focuses on understanding the hot hand fallacy and player shot probabilities, noting that some players exhibit a hot hand phenomenon some of the time. The mechanism behind this phenomenon could involve positive feedback, regime shifting, or a combination of both, with evidence suggesting heterogeneity in player performance and high-volume shooters more likely to sustain a streak.
The speaker acknowledges data limitations and the challenge of determining causality, highlighting the need for more research on momentum in different contexts and its impact on decision-making in sports. The discussion concludes with upcoming presentations on physical decline rates in men versus women, featuring speakers Joshua Miller, Danielli, and Jean Lou Who.
Notable Quotes
— 03:10 — « I stumbled into it. »
— 04:21 — « Nevertheless, we shouldnt get stuck just with gbts data set because its just one data set. »
— 04:27 — « I stumbled into it. »
— 91:31 — « striking results in the original paper »
Category
Educational