Summary of "Gold & Silver Targets | Michael Oliver and Jimmy Connor"
Gold & Silver Targets | Michael Oliver and Jimmy Connor
Key Finance-Specific Content Summary
1. Macroeconomic Context & Market Overview
- S&P 500 & NASDAQ: Both indices were down 2-3% on the discussed day, showing topping behavior since early 2025.
- Bond Market Focus:
- The primary concern is the U.S. Treasury bond market, especially 30-year T-bond futures.
- Bond prices are “nailed at the ceiling,” with yields stuck high since 2022.
- Recent breaches below key support levels (~115 to 113 in T-bond futures price) could trigger panic selling.
- The bond market is much larger and more critical than the stock market.
- Central banks (Fed, Bank of Japan, etc.) have intervened to support bond liquidity since November.
- $8 trillion of U.S. bonds mature in 2026, requiring refinancing amid high yields, posing refinancing risk.
- Japan and China are major holders of U.S. Treasuries (~$1 trillion and $800 billion respectively).
- European nations potentially dumping U.S. bonds and stocks is a significant risk factor.
2. Precious Metals (Gold & Silver)
-
Gold:
- Current price around $1,500 (bare low in Dec 2015).
- Historical bull markets saw ~8x gains from lows to highs (1980, 2011).
- Projected “normal” target based on past cycles is ~$8,000+ per ounce.
- Gold miners are extremely undervalued relative to gold price historically (currently 4-8% vs. historical 25% of gold price).
- Technical breakout underway in gold and gold miners indices (XAU).
-
Silver:
- Significantly undervalued relative to gold (currently ~2% of gold price, historically 3-6.5% at bull peaks).
- Silver price has doubled relative to gold since November close (from 1% to 2% of gold price).
- Expected to outperform gold substantially in 2026.
- Price targets for silver this year could reach $300-$500/ounce, potentially in a rapid, “thunderbolt tantrum” move.
- Silver miners show even more explosive potential relative to gold miners.
- A correction of 20-30% in silver/gold prices is possible, especially if a Supreme Court ruling or government intervention occurs, but would be a buying opportunity.
-
Investment Strategy:
- Favor silver over gold for higher upside.
- Transition from leveraged call options (e.g., SLV calls expiring in September) into unleveraged positions, especially junior miners.
- Gold and silver miners are considered deeply undervalued and poised for a breakout.
3. U.S. Dollar
- Dollar index broke a momentum uptrend in March 2025 (~104.21).
- Currently around 98, expected to decline further, potentially to old lows near 70.
- Dollar index reflects value versus other fiat currencies (Euro, Yen), not real buying power.
- Ongoing currency devaluation due to money supply growth and inflation.
- M2 money supply increased 42% from $15.4 trillion (Jan 2020) to over $22 trillion currently.
- Dollar weakness supports precious metals and commodity prices.
4. Commodities & Energy
-
Oil:
- Recent price around mid-$50s, with historical swings from $130 (peak after Ukraine war began) down to $55-$70 range.
- Oil is “off the page cheap” relative to gold and silver.
- Momentum indicators suggest a potential breakout above current levels that could drive oil prices up 50%+ to $90+ within a few quarters.
- Oil stocks and commodity-related stocks expected to outperform and not correlate with the stock market.
- Rising oil prices could have political and economic implications (e.g., impact on U.S. consumers, political fragmentation).
-
Natural Gas:
- Volatile but in a positive long-term trend.
- Prices recently low historically but expected to grind upward.
-
Uranium:
- Bullish trend but less exciting due to recent large run-up (from <$20 in 2017 to >$100 in 2022).
- Expected to rise but not as dynamically as broader commodity complex or precious metals.
-
Agricultural Real Estate & Grains:
- Suggested as a good hard asset investment linked to commodity upside.
-
Commodity Index (Bloomberg Commodity Index):
- Currently at ~115, about half its 2008 level (~235).
- Indicates commodities are undervalued relative to stocks.
5. Stock Market Outlook
- Potential for a 50%+ drop in S&P 500 over time, but layered and not immediate collapse.
- Market currently in topping process since early 2025.
- Momentum indicators diverging from price highs.
- A 10-20% correction could happen soon, wiping out 2025 gains.
- Stock market selloff likely less damaging to gold and silver miners than in 2008.
- Commodities and commodity stocks preferred over stocks in general.
6. Risk Management & Strategy
- Be cautious with leveraged positions; consider moving into unleveraged miners.
- Watch key bond market support levels closely; bond market instability is the biggest systemic risk.
- Corrections in metals should be viewed as buying opportunities.
- Diversify into hard assets: precious metals, miners, commodities, agricultural real estate.
- Avoid overexposure to paper assets like stocks and bonds given macro risks.
7. Event & Disclosure
- Virtual Gold Conference: Friday, January 23rd, 8 a.m. Eastern Time featuring:
- Speakers from Sprats Asset Management, World Gold Council, major gold producers (Igno, Centa Gold, Hemllo Mining, Ken Ross Gold, Oceanic Gold, Oiscoco Development).
- Michael Oliver and Jimmy Connor as hosts.
- Michael Oliver’s research and services available at oliversa.com (Momentum Structural Analysis).
- Not explicit financial advice; discussion is for informational purposes.
Extracted Tickers, Assets, Sectors, Instruments
- Assets: Gold, Silver, Gold Miners (XAU Index), Silver Miners, U.S. Treasury Bonds (30-year T-bond futures), Oil, Natural Gas, Uranium, Agricultural Real Estate, Grains.
- Indexes: S&P 500, NASDAQ, Bloomberg Commodity Index.
- ETFs/Options: SLV call options (September expiry mentioned).
- Countries: U.S., Japan, China, U.K., European nations (as bond holders/sellers).
Methodology / Framework Highlights
- Focus on bond market technicals, especially T-bond futures prices and yields, as a leading indicator for precious metals and stock market risk.
- Use of momentum structural analysis (MSA) for timing and valuation, including long-term momentum on monthly, quarterly, and annual timeframes.
- Relative valuation comparisons:
- Gold and silver prices relative to historical bull market multiples.
- Gold miners’ valuation as a % of gold price historically vs. current.
- Silver price as % of gold price historically vs. current.
- Watch for technical breakout levels in miners and metals for entry points.
- Expect sharp, non-linear moves (“thunderbolt tantrum”) rather than gradual trends.
- Monitor political/legal events (e.g., Supreme Court rulings) for potential volatility triggers.
Key Numbers & Timelines
- Virtual Gold Conference: Jan 23, 8 a.m. ET.
- T-bond futures key levels: recent lows ~115, breached 113.
- U.S. bonds maturing in 2026: $8 trillion.
- Silver price targets: $300-$500/ounce within first half of 2026.
- Gold price “normal” target: ~$8,000/ounce (8x from 2015 low).
- Silver to gold price ratio: currently ~2%, historical peaks 3-6.5%.
- Dollar index broke momentum in March 2025 at 104.21, now ~98.
- M2 money supply up 42% from $15.4T (Jan 2020) to $22T+.
- Oil price breakout target: from mid-$50s to $90+ within quarters.
- S&P 500 topping since early 2025, potential 50%+ drop over time.
Presenters / Sources
- Michael Oliver: Momentum Structural Analysis expert, primary market analyst.
- Jimmy Connor: Interviewer, host at Blur Street Capital.
- Other speakers mentioned for the conference: John Chapalia (Sprats Asset Management), Joe Cavatoni (World Gold Council), executives from Igno, Centa Gold, Hemllo Mining, Ken Ross Gold, Oceanic Gold, Oiscoco Development.
Summary
Michael Oliver and Jimmy Connor discuss a precarious macroeconomic environment centered on the U.S. Treasury bond market’s instability, which is the key driver for gold, silver, and the broader commodity complex. They forecast a strong bullish year for precious metals, especially silver, with potential explosive price moves as bond market stresses escalate. The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken further, supporting commodity and metal prices. The stock market faces a topping process with a possible significant correction later in 2026, while commodity-related stocks and miners offer better risk-adjusted opportunities. Investors are advised to reduce leverage, favor unleveraged metal miners, and consider hard assets amid systemic risks in paper markets.
Category
Finance
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