Summary of "Patreon Weekly Call - 01.26.26"

Summary of Patreon Weekly Call - 01.26.26

Key Business and Market Execution Insights

Content & Community Management

Educational content rollout:
- Released five main options trading videos.
- Planned five additional shorter case studies.
- Content available on Patreon and Discord trading education channels.
Platform enhancements:
- Adding a futures trading channel in Discord for commodity futures traders.
- Trade tracker update expected midweek to include take-profit and stop-loss columns, split into near-term and longer-term price targets with timelines.
Use of Loom:
- Employed for quick market updates due to efficiency (live recording, auto-transcription, AI editing).
- User tips provided for better experience on desktop and mobile.

Weekly Market & Geopolitical Outlook

Key events to watch:
- FOMC meeting on Wednesday (rate decision and press conference).
- Heavy earnings on Wednesday (ASML, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla) and Thursday (Apple, Deckers).
- Geopolitical risks include:
  - Possible US-Japan currency intervention.
  - Developments in Iran.
  - Canada-China tariff dispute settled but potential flare-ups remain.
- US government shutdown risk exceeds 80% probability by end of January; historically causes short-term noise but rarely long-term market derailment unless prolonged.
Market cycle positioning:
- Market shows late-cycle characteristics:
  - Small caps outperforming.
  - Commodity strength (including metals).
  - Accelerating sector rotation.
- Inflation signals and sector rotation are key indicators to monitor.
- Recommendations:
  - Stay nimble.
  - Take profits on gold/silver positions.
  - Redeploy into emerging opportunities, especially utility metals (e.g., copper, graphite).
  - Emphasize flexibility and rotation across asset classes to capture momentum and avoid being stuck in underperforming sectors (e.g., crypto).

Market Technicals & Trade Ideas

Indices:
- S&P 500 and NASDAQ futures recovering after initial dips.
- NASDAQ hitting new highs above 11.5% for the first time in over a year, historically a positive 12-month indicator.
Bitcoin & Crypto:
- Bitcoin holding key support but vulnerable to breakdown toward $74K–$78K if it fails.
- Solana showing oversold bounce; short-term recovery possible.
Commodities & Metals:
- Reviewed various commodity plays with detailed price targets and risk considerations:
  - CLF (iron ore) near resistance at $16.76.
  - RMX (rare earth metals) showing strong gains, approaching 100% extension target (~$113).
  - Copper proxies (CPER, ERO, IE, FCX) analyzed for risk/reward; some extended (SCCO, TGB) and less attractive now.
  - Institutional accumulation noted in HIMS despite price drops, suggesting potential support zone around $26.
  - Coin (Coinbase) approaching major psychological support at $200; possible turnaround aligned with regulatory clarity.
  - Petroleum play OXY showing stronger setup with higher lows and support at 200-day moving average.
  - Other commodity plays (WWR, NMG, LAC, IIA, NVA, UY) discussed with price targets, support/resistance, and entry timing advice.
Equities & Sector Plays:
- Earnings-sensitive stocks (UNH, Deckers) flagged for caution due to insider selling and tariff impact.
- Retail/manufacturing consumer goods (Marvel, AMR Sports) showing mixed signals; some steady grind up, some bearish divergence.
- PayPal chart weak; broke support, large air pocket below, not recommended to buy currently.
- Data center play SLNH showing signs of base formation; volatile but potential 342% upside from support.
- TTD (The Trade Desk) still weak; no clear turnaround yet.
- Roblox and Netflix analyzed for potential double bottom and bump-and-run patterns, suggesting cautious entries with stops below key levels.
- SaaS and AI-related stocks (NOW, POET) discussed with caution on structural weakness and volatility.
- Semiconductor stocks (Samsung, MU, AMD) reviewed:
  - Samsung at resistance, no entry edge.
  - MU overextended but supported by backlog limiting capacity expansion.
  - AMD showing potential breakout and uptrend continuation.
Options and Short Trades:
- Covered calls on Tesla seen as low risk for overcrowding due to high liquidity.
- AXTI short trade target at $13.50 with scaling out advised near key volume support zones.
Trade Management & Risk:
- Emphasis on setting stops below local swing lows.
- Use of multiple technical patterns (inverse head & shoulders, wedge breakouts, cup and handle, bump and run) to confirm price targets.
- Time is a critical factor in trade theses; some trades require patience or re-evaluation if they stagnate.
- Encouragement to take profits on strong moves (e.g., NU calls) and be cautious with late entries in overheated charts.

Frameworks & Processes Highlighted

Technical Analysis Patterns & Playbook:
- Classical chart patterns used include:
  - Inverse head & shoulders
  - Wedge breakouts
  - Cup and handle
  - Bump and run
- Price target calculation via measuring swing highs/lows and projecting extensions.
- Use of confluence model bands and volume profile (VRVP) for support/resistance and stop placement.
Risk Management:
- Clear stop-loss placement below swing lows.
- Scaling out at key resistance or extension targets.
Market Cycle Awareness:
- Late-cycle indicators such as commodity strength, rotation, and inflation signs.
- Strategic rotation between sectors and asset classes.
Trade Tracker & Metrics:
- Planned inclusion of take-profit and stop-loss columns with timeframes.
Community Engagement:
- Incorporating member questions and chart requests into weekly calls.
- Encouraging community contributions to surface trade ideas.

Key Metrics & Price Targets

RMX: Near $40 with 100% extension at $113.
Copper proxies (ERO, IE, FCX): upside targets ranging 20%–60%.
WWR: Potential 80%–100% upside from current ~$1.24 to ~$2.58.
AXTI short: Target $13.50 from $20 activation.
Roblox: Potential 100%–138% upside if trend reversal confirmed.
Netflix: Support zone $75–$80 with bounce expected.
PayPal: Broken support, large downside risk to $41.
SLNH: 342% upside from $1.70 support to $5.84.
NU calls: Resistance near $18–$23; consider profit-taking.
OMAB: Breakout with ~30% upside to $15.20.
FCX: Near-term price target $70, longer-term extension $74.
Hood: Potential downside to $80 from $90.
Plug Power: Support near $2.27–$2.30; longer-term breakout possible.
JD and BILI (Chinese stocks): Potential sector breakout with 20%+ upside.
Meta vs Tesla pair trade: Meta historically outperforms Tesla in Q1; worth monitoring.

Actionable Recommendations

Stay nimble and ready to rotate capital as market leadership shifts.
Take profits on strong precious metals positions and redeploy into utility metals or emerging commodity plays.
Use technical patterns and volume profiles to set clear entry, exit, and stop-loss levels.
Avoid late entries in overheated charts; prefer to wait for pullbacks or confirmations.
Be cautious trading into earnings unless multiple technical signals align.
Monitor geopolitical and macro events for near-term volatility (FOMC, government shutdown, currency interventions).
Engage with community inputs to diversify watchlist and trade ideas.

Presenters & Sources

Main presenter: Tom (last name not specified), market analyst and educator on Patreon.
Additional mentions: Nick (briefly), community members including Tesla Holic, Wheelbarrel, Eternity Investor, King Rat, Brave Dave, and others who contributed questions and chart requests.

This summary focuses on business execution strategies, market frameworks, trade setups, risk management, and actionable insights shared during the Patreon Weekly Call.