Summary of "Dalal Street Week Ahead: JULY 2ND Week | 2025 | P R Sundar"

Summary of Financial Strategies, Market Analysis, and Business Trends from "Dalal Street Week Ahead: JULY 2ND Week | 2025 | P R Sundar"

The market broke out of a previous trading range of 24,500 to 25,200, decisively crossing 25,200, which now acts as a support level.
For the upcoming week, the Nifty index is expected to trade within a tighter range of 25,000 to 26,000 points.
Bank Nifty is expected to trade between 54,000 and 60,000 for the rest of the series, showing signs of struggle despite a breakout.
Recent trading sessions showed high volatility with large intraday swings, indicating a consolidation phase.
Despite negative news and net institutional selling over several sessions, markets are holding steady without showing signs of panic or fear (volatility index remains low).

The Trump tariff deadline on July 9th is unlikely to cause significant market fear as few countries have signed agreements with the U.S., and the market is not reacting strongly.
Regulatory changes by SEBI, including higher margins and no margin benefits for calendar spreads on expiry day, have reduced trading volumes by 50-60%.
The clampdown on large-volume traders like Jane Street is expected to further reduce volumes, which may increase volatility due to lower liquidity.
Reduced volumes can lead to sudden price spikes or drops, which is generally unfavorable for stable trading conditions.

TCS is scheduled to announce quarterly results after market hours on Thursday; impact expected on Friday.
IT stocks are already significantly down (TCS ~20% down from all-time highs, IT index down ~15%), so limited downside is expected.
Positive surprises in IT earnings could trigger short covering and a potential bounce.
Major corporate results will follow in the subsequent weeks, likely increasing market volatility.

Highest open interest is expected at 25,000 put options and 26,000 call options, indicating market consensus on a narrow trading range.
Aggressive selling of both calls and puts suggests traders do not anticipate large moves in either direction.

Trump’s threat of a 500% tax on trading with Russia is seen as a negotiation tactic, unlikely to have a major impact on markets.
India and China’s oil purchases from Russia are not expected to be affected significantly.

Identify key support and resistance levels (e.g., 25,200 as support, 26,000 as resistance).
Monitor institutional activity (net buying/selling) to gauge market sentiment.
Watch for regulatory changes impacting trading volumes and liquidity.
Track major corporate earnings announcements for potential market catalysts.
Analyze options open interest to understand market expectations and potential trading ranges.
Consider geopolitical developments but assess their real impact on market sentiment.