Summary of "KEVIN WADSWORTH | The price of oil is going to accelerate away for years, likely as high $300-500!"
High-level takeaway
- Kevin Wadsworth (Northstar Bad Charts) treats price charts as the aggregated view of market participants and uses technical analysis to assess probabilities (not certainties).
- Main macro view: commodities, precious metals and energy are in a multi‑year bull regime that can produce sustained, large price moves and volatility. Oil in particular could accelerate for years to well above conventional levels.
- Use multiple technical tools (support/resistance, breakouts, moving averages, Ichimoku cloud, ratio charts) to time trades and investments and to identify likely multi‑year trends.
Assets / tickers / sectors mentioned
- Energy / commodities: Oil (global crude), Newcastle coal futures
- Metals: Uranium (spot and miners; URA referenced), Copper, Aluminum (aluminium), Gold, Silver, Platinum
- Equities / ETFs: Gold miners ETF (GDX), uranium miners (ratio vs gold referenced)
- Ratio charts: Gold:S&P, uranium miners:gold, platinum:gold
- Technical tools & indicators: moving averages (3‑year, 12‑month, 36‑month, 50‑week), Ichimoku cloud, volume, Fibonacci extensions, cup & handle, wedges, backtest/breakout analysis
Methodology / framework (how Kevin analyzes)
- Treat the price chart as the collective opinion of all market participants and infer probable future direction from past price action.
- Identify key support and resistance lines; require a third touch to validate a line.
- Use multiple pieces of evidence rather than a single indicator:
- Price patterns (cup/arc, wedge, rising wedge, cup & handle)
- Long‑term moving averages and Ichimoku cloud
- Volume and backtest/breakout behavior
- Ratio charts to time sector rotation
- Confirmation rules:
- Bull market: price above long‑term moving average and above the Ichimoku cloud.
- Prefer breakout + backtest on weekly/monthly timeframes for higher‑probability continuation signals.
- Risk management:
- Define entry, profit target and stop‑loss before entering.
- Set stop‑losses using swing lows / previous wicks.
- Position sizing example: risk ~1% of NAV on a trade.
- For long‑term investing:
- Use multi‑year “roadmap” charts and add on pullbacks (example: add on ~20%+ pullbacks).
- Use ratio charts (e.g., gold vs S&P) to decide capital rotation into/out of sectors.
Key technical setups and explicit targets
Note: Some numeric values in the transcript appear inconsistent or likely transcribed incorrectly. Numbers below reflect what was said on the call; cross‑check live market data before trading.
Oil
- Narrative: breakout signaled in 2021; price accelerated with recent spikes (> $100–$120 briefly). Kevin expects a sustained multi‑year upside acceleration.
- Explicit multi‑year targets mentioned: beyond $200, $300, and “probably beyond $400 and $500” (check live markets).
- Near term: likely consolidation / pullback (could retrace toward ≈ $75) before further acceleration.
- Context referenced: historical baselines such as ≈ $59 at the time of his post and $147 in 2008.
Uranium
- Chart formed a multi‑year cup/arc; price trading above the 3‑year moving average and Ichimoku cloud — interpreted as bull market evidence.
- Uranium miners vs gold (ratio): a breakout above long‑term resistance and moving averages would be the signal to be heavily invested in miners.
- Timeline: commodities/precious‑metals/uranium bull era expected to continue into at least the mid‑2030s.
Coal (Newcastle futures)
- Key horizontal resistance zone: ≈ 146–158 USD/ton. A sustained break above ≈ 158 signals transition to a bull market.
- Measured upside target once bull is confirmed: ≈ 350–360 USD/ton.
- Example company (Whitehaven Coal, ASX): overhead resistance ≈ A$11–12; measured move target ≈ A$50; example entry cited ≈ A$15.
Copper
- Technical: cup pattern with breakout and backtest completed — bullish continuation likely.
- Measured move targets:
- Shorter term: ≈ USD 8/lb
- Longer term (cup depth replication): ≈ USD 12/lb
- Warning: moves can be rapid and emotionally challenging if you miss the breakout.
Aluminum
- Chart: cup pattern with a rising wedge on the right (rising wedge in a bull context can precede rapid upside).
- Target zone on breakout: roughly USD 390–400.
- Moving average of interest: 12‑month moving average as bullish threshold.
Gold
- Current shorter‑term: corrective patterns on intraday/daily/weekly charts; possible lower short‑term targets discussed (numeric transcript values fuzzy).
- Long term: large multi‑year targets shown using Fibonacci extensions; transcript referenced a range “between 7,000 and 10,000” (likely a transcription error—verify).
- Bull era confirmation: gold must outperform stocks — watch the gold:S&P ratio for breakout above long‑term resistance, moving average and Ichimoku cloud.
- Cycle: historically ~7–8.5 year cycle lows; cycle behavior expected through the late 2020s / around 2030.
Silver
- Current structure: bearish rising wedge after an uptrend.
- Kevin’s probabilities: ~70% scenario is a break below ≈ $74 toward ≈ $50–57; ~30% chance of a breakout toward ≈ $120.
- Long term: large cup & handle pattern suggests silver can appreciate multiples over the bull era.
Gold miners (GDX)
- GDX is above the Ichimoku cloud and above the rising 3‑year moving average, but the distance from the moving average is extreme versus past decades.
- Near term: likely corrective/pullback; key support ≈ GDX 85 — breakdown below that implies a deeper correction. If support holds, the longer‑term bull case remains intact.
Trading setup example (explicit metrics)
Example copper trade:
- Entry: after breakout and backtest (weekly/monthly confirmation).
- Profit targets: conservative ≈ $8/lb; aggressive ≈ $12/lb.
- Stop loss: just below the swing low wick.
- Risk/reward: roughly 3:1 to $8 target; roughly 8:1 to $12 target.
- Position sizing: risk ~1% of NAV (lose 1% if stop hit); potential gain +3% to +8% of NAV if target hit.
Macro context and implications
- Geopolitical shocks (e.g., Middle East energy infrastructure damage) bolster demand and rebuild reasons for oil, copper, aluminum and related materials.
- Institutional flows, budget deficits and money supply considerations can affect capital rotations; watch for risk‑off flows and moves into safe havens.
- Expect cyclical pullbacks within a multi‑year commodity/precious metals bull era.
Risks, cautions & disclosures
- Technical analysis assesses probabilities, not certainties.
- Always define entries, targets and stop losses and follow sound risk management.
- Kevin Wadsworth expressly states he is not a financial adviser; the commentary is not financial advice.
- Some numeric values in the transcript appear inconsistent or incorrectly transcribed (e.g., very large gold price figures). Always cross‑check live market quotes and perform your own due diligence before trading.
“I’m not a financial adviser.” — paraphrased from the presenter
Practical recommendations
- Beginners: open a free TradingView account, practice technical tools, and follow reputable technical analysts.
- Investors: use multi‑year roadmap charts and add on pullbacks (example: add on ~20%+ pullbacks).
- Traders: set profit targets and stop losses, limit the number of simultaneous trades, and adhere to pre‑defined rules.
Presenters / sources
- Kevin Wadsworth — co‑founder, Northstar Bad Charts (X: Northstar Charts; website: northstarbadcharts.com)
- Gary Bone — host, Metals and Miners podcast / Metals and Miners Substack (metalsandminers.substack.com)
Disclaimer
This summary restates technical views discussed in the video transcript. It is not financial advice. Verify tickers, prices and targets with live market data and perform your own due diligence before trading or investing.
Category
Finance
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