Summary of "Patreon Exclusive MSTY and WNTR (part 2) || Psychic Liz Cross"
Context and disclosures
- The source is a video labeled for entertainment only and owned by Psychic Liz Cross LLC.
- Explicit disclaimer used in the video: “for entertainment purposes only.”
- Presenters repeatedly state this is not investment advice; discussion is informal and includes psychic / “time probe” style forecasting.
“For entertainment purposes only.”
Assets, tickers, and instruments mentioned
- Misti / Misty (referred to as MSTY / MISTY / “Misti”) — a YieldMax product (high-yield, options-based fund).
- Winter (referred to as WTR / WNTR) — another YieldMax product.
- MSTR (MicroStrategy) — discussed as a time-dependent, high-volatility investment example.
- Options / call-writing strategy — funds generate income by selling calls.
- Lower-risk allocation alternatives referenced: money markets, bonds, treasuries.
How YieldMax declares and reports yield (methodology)
- YieldMax declares yield using current NAV: take the current NAV, annualize the weekly distribution amount, and report that as the fund’s annual yield.
- Published yields are based on the share price / NAV on the reporting day; individual investors’ realized yields will differ depending on purchase price and any sales.
- Because YieldMax uses the same NAV-based method across products, published yields are comparable across their funds.
Key historical numbers and timelines
- Time window referenced: retrospective/projections around 2026–2029, with specific probes aimed at January 22, 2029 and looking back to 2026–2027.
- Average annual yields discussed (for 2026 & 2027):
- Misti (MSTY/MISTY): roughly 75–80% per year (often cited ≈80%).
- Winter (WNTR/WTR): roughly 110% (ranges 110–120%; commonly ≈110%).
- Return of Capital (ROC) vs operating profit breakdown (per CEO / probes):
- Winter: ~95% from profit and ~5% from ROC (CEO/probe: profit 90–95%, ROC ~5%).
- Misti: ~70–80% from profit and ~20–30% ROC (CEO/probe: ROC about 20%).
- Corporate action: Misti reportedly executed a reverse stock split on or around November 1, 2026 — ratio stated as 2:1.
Risks, cautions, and recommendations discussed
- Paying dividends out of ROC can cause NAV/share erosion over time; the higher the ROC component, the greater the risk of NAV decline.
- Participants should read funds’ public filings and prospectuses to verify the ROC vs profit composition of distributions.
- One speaker preference: YieldMax should lower Misti’s declared yield (example suggested 40–50%) to preserve NAV — lower yields reduce payout pressure and NAV erosion risk.
- Suitability note: high-yield, income-oriented funds require time in the market and capacity to withstand drawdowns. Investors seeking capital preservation (often older investors) may prefer money markets, bonds, or treasuries.
- Yields discussed are historical/annualized and depend on NAV at the time reported — individual outcomes will vary by entry price and holding period.
- The presenters addressed YouTube “scare mongers” claims: while some ROC is used, the speakers stated the funds have been paying most dividends from profits (not entirely ROC).
Practical evaluation framework (suggested steps)
- Check the published yield methodology — are yields annualized from weekly distributions using current NAV?
- Compare yields across products using the standard NAV-based yields (apples-to-apples).
- Review historical annual yields for the relevant years (e.g., 2026–2027).
- Inspect fund financials and the prospectus to quantify the share of dividends paid from operating profit vs ROC.
- Monitor NAV trajectory to detect erosion from persistent ROC-funded distributions.
- Watch for management commentary and corporate actions (e.g., yield cuts, reverse splits) and assess potential impact.
- Align fund choice with investor horizon and risk tolerance (income needs vs capital preservation).
Performance and operational notes
- Winter was characterized as generating most dividends from option profits (low ROC), which is favorable for NAV preservation.
- Misti has used more ROC historically (around ~20%), posing greater NAV erosion risk unless yield is trimmed or profitability improves.
- YieldMax management acknowledged consideration of lowering yields for sustainability but had not implemented large cuts as of the probes.
Presenters and sources cited
- Psychic Liz Cross (video host / owner — Psychic Liz Cross LLC)
- “Mr. Shakespeare” (participant / asker)
- “Mike,” “Spencer,” “Bruce” (participants / psychic probes referenced)
- Jay Pestrochelli (identified as CEO of YieldMax products) — primary company source quoted in the discussion
- MicroStrategy (MSTR) referenced as an example asset
Notable explicit numbers (quick list)
- Misti average annual yield (2026–2027): ~75–80% (commonly ~80%).
- Winter average annual yield (2026–2027): ~110% (ranges 110–120%).
- ROC contribution:
- Misti: ~20% ROC / 70–80% profit (per CEO/probes).
- Winter: ~5% ROC / 90–95% profit (per CEO/probes).
- Reverse split for Misti: 2:1 (on/around November 1, 2026).
Category
Finance
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