Summary of "Soybean Prices Hit Calendar-Year High on Trade Deal Hopes: But is it All Just Talk??"

Summary of Finance-Specific Content from Video

Markets & Assets Mentioned

Grain futures:
- December corn (CME: ZC)
- January & November soybeans (CME: ZS)
- December Chicago wheat (CME: ZW)
- December Kansas City wheat (CME: KE)
- December spring wheat
USDA export shipment data: Soybeans, corn, wheat
Brazilian crops: Soybeans, corn
US cattle futures: Feeder cattle, live cattle
Other markets: S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, U.S. Treasuries, WTI crude oil

Key Market Moves & Prices

Soybeans

January soybeans rose 10¾ cents to $10.95¾ per bushel.
November 25 soybean contract increased about 26 cents, settling near $10.67 per bushel.
Soybean futures reached the highest levels since June, approaching calendar-year highs.
Nearby November soybean contract resistance is at $10.81 per bushel; a close above this level could trigger more speculative buying and short covering.
Cash bids in North Dakota and South Dakota remain low (around $9), indicating limited actual demand despite the futures rally.
USDA soybean export inspections totaled 39 million bushels for the week ending October 23, down 33% week-over-week and 60% year-over-year — the worst seasonal shipment number since the 2011-2012 marketing year. Top buyers were Indonesia, Israel, and Italy, not China.

Corn

December corn futures increased 2 cents to $4.30¾; December 25 corn contract closed near $4.29 per bushel, up nearly 6 cents.
Resistance is near $4.32¾–$4.34; failure to close above this level leaves upside uncertain.
US corn harvest is 72% complete versus 81% last year.
Corn export inspections were 47 million bushels, down 10% week-over-week but up 38% year-over-year.

Wheat

December Chicago wheat rose 4¼ cents to $5.30¼; Kansas City wheat increased 3½ cents to $5.17¾.
Chicago wheat closed at $5.26 per bushel, up about 14 cents.
Wheat shipments fell below expectations at 10 million bushels, down 48% week-over-week and 12% year-over-year.
Kansas City wheat resistance is near $5.21; a close above this would improve the technical outlook.

Brazilian Crops

Soybean planting is 36% complete (up from 24% the previous week, in line with last year).
Brazil’s soybean crop is projected at 177.6 million metric tons (up 3.6% year-over-year).
Brazil’s corn crop is projected at 138.6 million metric tons (down 1.8% year-over-year).
Recent dryness noted (29% of normal rainfall), but above-normal rainfall is expected in the next 7–14 days.

Cattle Futures

Feeder cattle contracts hit daily expanded limits down for the second straight session.
Live cattle contracts posted steep losses (e.g., down $4.92 per 100 lbs).
Pressure stems from Trump’s plans to increase Argentine beef imports and potential reopening of Mexican feeder cattle imports.
Speculation about trade talks with Brazil regarding beef imports.
Despite recent sharp correction, the long-term uptrend in cattle markets since COVID lows remains intact.

Macroeconomic & Trade Context

The soybean rally is driven by optimism around a potential US-China trade deal, fueled by President Trump’s statements about upcoming meetings with President Xi.
No confirmed trade deal or material evidence of resumed Chinese soybean purchases yet; shipments remain weak.
The market appears to be pricing in hopes rather than fundamentals.
US corn and soybean harvests are slightly behind last year’s pace due to rainfall delays.
Export shipments for soybeans and wheat are notably weak, raising caution despite futures strength.
Brazilian crop conditions and planting progress are closely monitored as they impact global supply.
Cattle market volatility is tied to trade policy speculation involving Argentina, Mexico, and Brazil.

Methodology / Trading Framework & Recommendations

Soybean Futures Technical Setup

Monitor the November contract for a close above $10.81 to confirm a breakout and trigger more buying/short covering.

Corn Futures Technical Setup

Watch for December corn to close above $4.33–$4.34 to fill the July gap and improve the technical outlook.

Wheat Futures Technical Setup

Kansas City wheat needs to close above $5.21 to strengthen the trend.

Marketing Strategy (from premium content)

Emphasis on simple cash sales broken down by crop year and percentage.
Minimal use of futures and options for marketing, catering to farmers who avoid complex derivatives.
No aggressive trading recommended; risk management is highlighted.

Risk Management

Speculative trading in soybean futures is considered risky and not recommended with others’ money or lightly.
The market is currently driven more by headlines and sentiment than fundamentals.

Disclaimers

This is not financial advice.

The speculative nature of futures trading, particularly in soybeans, is emphasized.

Premium content is offered separately, with no additional fees or obligations.

Presenters / Sources

Scott Besson (primary analyst/commentator)
Joe (premium content contributor)
McKenzie (co-host)
Chris Baron (guest on premium content, logistics expert)
Shay (upcoming premium content guest)
Data sources referenced include USDA export reports, Reuters analyst polls, private groups Agural and Konab, and the Crop Profit platform.

Summary

Soybean futures surged to calendar-year highs driven by trade deal optimism between the US and China, despite weak export shipments and lack of confirmed purchases. Corn and wheat futures also showed gains but face key technical resistance levels. US harvest progress lags last year due to weather. Brazilian crop planting is on track but recent dry conditions pose some risk. Cattle futures plunged on trade policy speculation involving Argentina, Mexico, and Brazil but remain in a long-term uptrend. Market participants are cautioned about speculative risk, and simple cash marketing strategies are recommended over futures/options trading.