Summary of Huge Wall St Financial Firm Predicts CRISIS In June

Summary of Key Financial Strategies, Market Analyses, and Business Trends:

• Crisis Prediction by Apollo Global Management:
  Apollo Global Management, a major Wall Street private equity firm managing around $700 billion, predicts a significant economic crisis and supply shock around June 2025. This crisis is expected to resemble the supply disruptions seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, with empty shelves and widespread shortages.
• Core Drivers of the Predicted Crisis:
  • Supply Chain Disruptions:
    Container ship departures from China to the U.S. are slowing dramatically due to tariffs (140-150%), causing a lag in inventory replenishment. By mid to late May, shipments are expected to halt, leading to empty store shelves by June.
  • Impact on Small and Mid-Size Businesses:
    Unlike large corporations that can absorb shocks, small and mid-size businesses—key drivers of employment and economic growth—are expected to suffer severe losses, potentially leading to bankruptcies and layoffs.
  • Consumer Spending Strain:
    Consumers face higher prices and reduced availability of goods, forcing them to spend more for less, reducing disposable income and hurting overall demand.
  • Inventory and Demand Dynamics:
    Businesses front-run tariffs by stockpiling inventory, causing rising inventories but falling consumer demand. This mismatch leads to price cuts, losses, and layoffs.
  • Corporate Earnings and Capex:
    Sharp declines in earnings and new orders, alongside a reversal in corporate capital expenditures, indicate a weakening economy.
  • Labor Market and Consumer Confidence:
    Consumer confidence is at record lows, with rising concerns about job security. CEO confidence is also declining, below levels seen during the COVID-19 crisis.
  • Tourism and Credit Indicators:
    Tourism, especially from Europe and places like Las Vegas, is declining sharply. Credit card delinquencies and minimum payments are rising, signaling consumer financial stress.
• Four Possible Economic Scenarios Outlined by Apollo:
  1. Stagflation (high inflation + stagnant growth)
  2. Recession
  3. Goldilocks (moderate growth and inflation)
  4. Overheating economy
  Apollo’s favored scenario is stagflation with higher rates, though the presenter disagrees, expecting a disinflationary recession (initial inflation spike followed by falling prices and rising unemployment).
• Investment Insight – Gold as a Hedge:
  Given the high uncertainty and volatility, Gold is recommended as a protective asset. The presenter highlights Monetary Metals, a company offering Gold storage where clients are paid in Gold rather than charged storage fees, making it an attractive option in uncertain times.

Step-by-Step Timeline of the Predicted Supply Shock (from Apollo Report):

• Early April: Container ship departures from China to the U.S. slow significantly due to tariffs.
• Early to Mid-May: Shipping arrivals from China decrease sharply; container ships to U.S. ports come to a near stop.
• Mid to Late May: Trucking and rail shipments to stores decline as there is less inventory to transport.
• June: Retail shelves begin to show empty spots, resembling the supply shortages seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Summer 2025: Resulting layoffs, small business bankruptcies, and recessionary pressures intensify.

Presenters/Sources:

• Main analysis and report by Apollo Global Management, authored by their head economist Torsten Sløk.
• Commentary and summary by George Gammon, a financial educator and YouTube presenter.
• Additional references to interviews and articles on CNBC.
• Mention of Monetary Metals as a sponsor and Gold storage solution.

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