Summary of "INI CIRI-CIRI KHAS SAHAM SIAP TERBANG - Ft. Rivan Kurniawan"
Summary of "INI CIRI-CIRI KHAS SAHAM SIAP TERBANG - Ft. Rivan Kurniawan"
This video features a detailed discussion on identifying promising stocks ("saham siap terbang") with a focus on portfolio management, stock analysis, and business transformation, featuring insights from Rivan Kurniawan. The conversation revolves around specific stock cases, investment strategies, and market trends, emphasizing fundamental analysis, business model shifts, and strategic buying.
Main Financial Strategies and Insights
- Portfolio Construction and Management
- Diversify with a limited number of stocks (around 5-6 stocks).
- Allocate funds strategically per stock, typically around 15% per stock, with some exceptions up to 30%.
- Use a mix of average-up and average-down strategies depending on stock price movements.
- Define clear buy zones or price areas to avoid emotional buying or FOMO.
- Set target prices (TP) based on intrinsic value calculations, often using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models.
- Sell when the stock reaches intrinsic value or when better opportunities arise.
- Rebalance portfolio regularly to minimize risk and wrong investment hypotheses.
- Stock Selection and Analysis
- Focus on companies with clear turnaround potential and solid fundamentals.
- Analyze financial reports closely to understand revenue streams, profitability, and losses.
- Consider business model transformations and long-term growth prospects.
- Look at shareholder structures and insider actions such as share buybacks as confidence signals.
- Recognize that historical financials are backward-looking; incorporate future projections and market sentiments.
- Understand that external factors (e.g., economic slowdown, credit conditions) affect stock prices even when fundamentals are solid.
- Case Studies: Stocks Discussed
- BTPS (Bank BTPN Syariah)
- One of the top contributors to portfolio growth.
- Strategy involved averaging up.
- SCMA (Surya Citra Media / High School)
- Media conglomerate with traditional TV (SCTV, Indosiar) and digital media (video platforms).
- Undergoing business transformation from conventional TV to digital OTT platforms.
- Digital segment currently causing losses due to heavy investment in content production and broadcasting rights (e.g., English Premier League, World Cup).
- Losses peaked in 2022-2023 but improving in 2024 with expectations to break even by 2026.
- Share buybacks and increasing ownership by parent company MTEK signal confidence.
- Long-term growth expected from digital media revenue streams (ads + subscriptions).
- ASA (ASA Rent)
- Initially known for corporate vehicle rentals.
- Shifted focus towards logistics services, especially after acquiring Anteraja.
- Logistics segment was loss-making in 2022-2023 but turned profitable in 2024.
- Developed an integrated logistics ecosystem including last mile (Anteraja), first mile (Cargo Share), and cold storage.
- Revenue grew moderately, but operating profit and net profit doubled due to business transformation.
- Stock price rose ~20% in a couple of months due to these improvements.
- BTPS (Bank BTPN Syariah)
- Market and Business Trends
- Shift from traditional media to digital platforms with diversified revenue streams.
- Increasing importance of ecosystem development in logistics for sustainable profitability.
- Value investing remains relevant, especially when combined with proper timing and portfolio management.
- Market sentiment and external macro factors can cause stock price volatility despite solid fundamentals.
- Insider activities like buybacks can reinforce confidence but should not be the sole buying trigger.
Methodology / Step-by-Step Guide for Investing
- Stock Purchase Strategy:
- Identify stocks with turnaround potential and solid fundamentals.
- Define buy price zones based on technical and fundamental analysis.
- Buy gradually in stages (averaging down or up) rather than all at once.
- Avoid chasing stocks beyond defined buy zones to prevent FOMO.
- Portfolio Management:
- Allocate funds with diversification but limited to manageable number of stocks.
- Monitor portfolio growth as a whole, not just individual stock performance.
- Set target prices based on intrinsic value and sell when targets are met or better opportunities arise.
- Rebalance portfolio periodically to minimize risk from wrong calls.
- Fundamental Analysis Focus:
- Study company financial reports to understand revenue sources and profitability.
- Analyze business model shifts and future growth drivers.
- Track insider activities and shareholder structure for confidence signals.
- Consider external market sentiments and macroeconomic factors.
- Long-Term Perspective:
- Accept short-term losses in businesses investing heavily in growth (e.g., digital media content).
- Look for signs of improving financials and narrowing losses as indicators of turnaround.
- Stay patient and focus on sustainable business transformation.
Presenters / Sources
- Rivan Kurniawan (featured expert and portfolio)
Category
Business and Finance
