Summary of "5 FÓRMULAS Simples Que Te Harán GANAR Más Con El Trading HOY"

Top-line summary

The video teaches five practical money-management formulas for trading (not market strategy or analysis). The focus is sizing and risk control so a trading edge becomes sustainable. Examples use EUR/USD (forex), pips/lots, ATR (Average True Range), and an account denominated in EUR; broker leverage is implied to achieve target position sizes.

Central message: trading success depends primarily on money management (position sizing, drawdown control, and risk scaling) rather than merely trying to be right more often.

Assets / instruments mentioned

EUR/USD (forex pair)
Pips, lots/units and broker leverage (implied)
ATR (volatility indicator)
R = unit of risk (win/loss scale; e.g., 1R = risked amount)

The five core formulas / frameworks

1) Expectancy (mathematical expectation)

Purpose: measure long-run average profit/loss per trade given strategy statistics.
Formula:
- Expectancy (R) = Win% * Avg Win (R) − Loss% * Avg Loss (R)
Steps:
1. Input win rate (decimal), average win in R, average loss in R.
2. Compute Win% * Avg Win − Loss% * Avg Loss to get expectancy in R.
3. Multiply expectancy (R) by monetary risk per trade to get expected currency per trade.
Example:
- Win 40% (0.40), Loss 60% (0.60), Avg win 2R, Avg loss 1R:
  - Expectancy = 0.402 − 0.601 = 0.20 R
  - With €10 risk per trade → €2 expected per trade
Key metrics: win rate, average win/loss in R, expectancy (R and currency).

2) Risk-per-trade based on drawdown (survivability sizing)

Purpose: calculate the maximum risk per trade so a worst expected losing streak doesn’t exceed your tolerable drawdown.
Formula:
- Risk per trade (€) = Maximum tolerable drawdown (€) ÷ Maximum expected losing streak (number of losses)
Steps:
1. Decide account size and tolerable drawdown (absolute € or %).
2. Estimate worst expected consecutive losses (number).
3. Divide tolerable drawdown by that streak to get € per trade; convert to % of account.
Example:
- Account €1,000; tolerable drawdown €200 (20%); max expected losing streak = 10 losses:
  - €200 / 10 = €20 per trade = 2% per trade
- If currently risking 1% (€10), that is conservative relative to this maximum.
Caution: this calculates a maximum consistent with survivability, not a required risk level.

3) Volatility-based position sizing (ATR method)

Purpose: keep monetary risk approximately constant across differing market volatility by sizing positions using ATR.
Formula (conceptual):
- Position size = Monetary risk (€) ÷ (ATR * multiplier)
- (ATR and multiplier produce the stop distance in price units)
Steps:
1. Choose monetary risk (e.g., 1% of account).
2. Read ATR (in price units) and choose a multiplier for the stop (e.g., 2×ATR).
3. Set stop-loss distance = ATR * multiplier.
4. Position size = monetary risk ÷ stop distance (convert result into units/lots using broker conventions; use leverage if needed).
Example:
- Account €1,000; monetary risk €10 (1%); ATR ≈ 0.000218; multiplier 2:
  - Stop ≈ 0.000436
  - Position size calculated ≈ €2,293.57 per point of movement (leverage implied)
  - If stop is hit, loss ≈ €10; with RR 1.45 a win would be ≈ €14.50
Notes:
- Watch unit conversions (pips/points/price decimals) and platform conventions.
- Leverage is often required to execute position sizes implied by the calculation.

4) Risk of ruin (probability of losing all / critical capital)

Purpose: estimate the probability that a losing run will wipe you out given expectancy, risk sizing, and capital.
Formula (simplified as presented):
- Risk of ruin = ((1 − e) / (1 + e))^(Capital / Risk per trade)
  - where e = expectancy (in R), and Capital and Risk per trade are in the same monetary units
Steps:
1. Compute expectancy e (from formula 1).
2. Compute Capital / Risk per trade (e.g., €1,000 / €10 = 100).
3. Compute base = (1 − e) / (1 + e), then raise base to the power (Capital / Risk per trade).
Example:
- e = 0.20, Capital/risk = 100:
  - base = 0.80 / 1.20 = 0.6667
  - 0.6667^100 ≈ 2.6×10^−18 → effectively zero risk of ruin
Guidance (video’s qualitative thresholds — treat cautiously):
- Result near zero → negligible risk of ruin.
- Result between 1 and 5 → indicates a problem; investigate.
- Result significantly >5 → high probability of eventual bankruptcy.
Inputs that drive risk of ruin: expectancy (edge), risk per trade, available capital (stake units).

5) Dynamic risk scaling (scale-up risk based on accumulated performance)

Purpose: scale up risk objectively when you have an accumulated profit cushion, without gambling.
Formula:
- New risk (%) = Base risk (%) * (1 + Accumulated profit ÷ Historical drawdown)
Steps:
1. Choose base risk (e.g., 1% per trade).
2. Measure accumulated profit (cushion) as % of capital.
3. Use your historical worst drawdown (as %).
4. Compute multiplier = 1 + (accumulated profit / historical drawdown), then multiply base risk.
Example:
- Base risk 1%; accumulated profit 5%; historical drawdown 15%:
  - multiplier = 1 + (0.05 / 0.15) = 1.333
  - New risk ≈ 1.33% → €13.33 on €1,000 account
Cautions:
- Only apply after achieving consistent positive results; do not scale from the start.
- The presenter warns against “doing anything crazy” — this is for gradual, controlled scaling.

Key numbers and examples (summary)

Expectancy example: 40% wins / 60% losses, avg win 2R, avg loss 1R → expectancy = 0.20 R/trade → with €10 risk = €2 expected per trade.
Risk-per-trade example: Account €1,000; tolerable drawdown €200; max losing streak = 10 → €20 per trade = 2% per trade.
ATR sizing example: ATR 0.000218, multiplier 2 → stop ≈ 0.000436; monetary risk €10 → implied position size ≈ €2,293.57 per point (leverage implied).
Risk-of-ruin example: e = 0.20, Capital/risk = 100 → ruin ≈ 2.6×10^−18 (practically zero).
Dynamic scaling example: Base risk 1%, accumulated profit 5%, historical drawdown 15% → new risk ≈ 1.33% (≈€13.33 on €1,000).

Recommendations, cautions, and practical notes

Use these formulas to convert a trading method into a quantifiable, objective, repeatable money-management system.
Don’t jump into dynamic risk-scaling until you have demonstrated consistent profitability.
Verify unit conversions carefully (pips/points/price units) and confirm position calculations on your trading platform.
Survivability is emphasized: control drawdown and risk per trade to avoid ruin.
The video references free resources and the presenter’s strategy in the description/pinned comment; subtitles did not include a formal “not financial advice” disclaimer.

Performance metrics to track

Win rate (%)
Average win (in R)
Average loss (in R)
Expectancy per trade (R and currency)
Historical max drawdown (%)
Accumulated profit (cushion %)
Capital / risk-per-trade (number of stake units)
Risk-of-ruin estimate

Sources / presenter

Video: “5 FÓRMULAS Simples Que Te Harán GANAR Más Con El Trading HOY”
Presenter: unnamed YouTuber / video author (speaker in subtitles). The video refers to pinned comment and description for free resources and the presenter’s revealed trading strategy.