Summary of "Решающее сражение за Покровск и Купянск. Герасимов придумал «котлы». Удар по плотине, прорыв воды"

Military Situation in Eastern Ukraine

The video provides a detailed analysis of the current military situation in eastern Ukraine, focusing on the contested areas of Pokrovsk and Kupyansk amid ongoing Russian-Ukrainian hostilities.

Key Military Developments

Ukrainian Counterattacks: Ukrainian forces are actively counterattacking near Pokrovsk and Liman, managing to liberate some villages such as Sukhetskoye and Kucherov Yar, inflicting losses on Russian troops. These counteroffensives also aim to stabilize flanks and prevent encirclement.
Russian Advances and Claims: Russian forces are advancing in southern Donetsk, making some territorial gains near Pokrovsk and Kupyansk. However, the video strongly questions Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov’s claims of encircling 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers in so-called “cauldrons” (encirclements). Evidence and maps do not support these assertions. Instead, Russian troops are mostly conducting infiltration and small-scale advances, often repelled or stalled by Ukrainian defenses.
Battle for Kupyansk: Russian troops have entered Kupyansk’s center and surrounding villages but have not fully encircled Ukrainian forces. Urban fighting continues with no confirmed “boilers” (encirclements) despite Russian propaganda claims.
Damaged Infrastructure: Ukrainian forces targeted the Belgorod Reservoir dam with missile and drone strikes, causing serious damage to locks and uncontrolled water discharge downstream. This may potentially flood Russian military positions in the Kharkiv region.
Drone Warfare and Air Defense: Ukrainian intelligence drones continue to successfully destroy Russian air defense systems in Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, including high-value radar installations. This degradation of Russian air defenses allows repeated drone attacks on Russian targets.
Russian Attacks on Energy Infrastructure: Russian forces have attacked Ukrainian wind turbines near Kramatorsk and a fuel train in the Sumy region using drones, aiming to disrupt Ukraine’s energy sector and logistics.
Russian Military Morale and Discipline Issues: An incident in Tatarstan revealed soldiers resisting military authority by freeing a detained serviceman, indicating growing unrest within Russian ranks. The Kremlin faces a dilemma between harsh repression and costly appeasement.
Russian Tactical Failures: Russian armored columns repeatedly suffer heavy losses due to Ukrainian drone strikes, mines, and artillery, especially in the Dobropolye salient and near Liman. Russian commanders appear indifferent to personnel losses, often sending troops on near-suicidal missions.
Defensive Measures: Both sides employ improvised armor and anti-drone nets on vehicles, though their effectiveness is limited. The video notes the Russian military’s poor supply situation and reliance on makeshift solutions.

Political and Strategic Context

Putin’s Reaction and Propaganda: Putin held a military meeting showcasing nuclear capabilities but is reportedly frustrated by the lack of significant battlefield progress. Gerasimov’s exaggerated reports appear aimed at maintaining morale and justifying the Kremlin’s strategy, despite poor results.
International Diplomacy: The cancellation of a Putin-Trump meeting in Budapest and new Western sanctions against Russia have heightened tensions. Kremlin officials accuse European countries of sabotaging dialogue with the U.S., while Trump reportedly demands concrete peace measures before any meeting with Putin.
Outlook: The frontline remains fluid but difficult for Ukraine, with Russian forces holding numerical superiority and willing to sacrifice troops. Ukrainian forces may have to decide whether to hold or withdraw from key positions like Pokrovsk and Kupyansk to avoid encirclement and preserve forces. While Russian territorial gains are limited, the situation remains serious and may evolve in the coming weeks.

Presenters and Contributors

Yan Matveyev (main commentator and analyst)

This summary captures the main military developments, analyses of Russian claims, battlefield dynamics, political context, and the presenter’s perspectives on the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine.