Summary of "ماذا يحدث في الاقتصاد التونسي؟"

Key business / strategy takeaways

High and rising cash usage in Tunisia is undermining monetary policy effectiveness and limiting digital payments adoption.
Structural incentives and costs (not only financial literacy) drive cash use.
Policy coherence, pricing reform, infrastructure expansion and clear accountability are needed to shift behaviors and support inclusion.

High-level problem

Cash usage in Tunisia is historically high and increasing, reducing the Central Bank’s control over money supply and complicating monetary policy transmission.
“Credit money” (laboni) reported at ~28 billion TND — described as a historical high and a sign of strong demand for cash.
The Central Bank has emphasized financial literacy, but commentators argue that structural incentives and costs (fees, legal changes, infrastructure) are the primary drivers of cash preference.

Frameworks, processes & playbooks referenced

Financial inclusion vs. exclusion: measure pre/post policy and set target inclusion rates (speaker referenced ~60% exclusion before the check law).
Monetary policy transmission framework: large volumes of cash outside the banking system weaken central bank control and may force higher interest rates to fight inflation.
Payments ecosystem design: align incentives across issuers (banks), acquirers (merchants), regulators (Central Bank) and users.
Policy coherence checklist:
1. Legal changes (e.g., check law, Finance Law)
2. Infrastructure capacity (POS, digital rails)
3. Cost/pricing model (merchant fees, interchange)
4. Education & accountability (who delivers financial literacy and how it’s measured)

Key metrics, KPIs and timelines

Credit money: ~28 billion TND (historic high).
Check usage: fallen to roughly 70% of pre-law levels (implying ~30% decline since the Feb 2025 check law).
Financial exclusion: quoted at ~60% before the check law (speaker argues exclusion increases with stricter check rules).

Policy / timeline markers:

Feb 2025: New check law implemented (major behavioral impact).
2024: Policy introduced making bank cards free for incomes < 1,500 TND (later reversed; fees reintroduced in 2025).
Finance Law 26: removed limits on cash payments for car/real estate > 5,000 TND (re-enables large cash deals).

Example pricing:

Check commission: fixed 2,700 millimes per check (used as a best-practice comparator).
Card issuance/usage fees (introduced after free-card policy): cited ranges 70–120 TND per year.

Concrete examples and case points

Checks: fixed low per-transaction cost (2,700 millimes) — used to illustrate fairness of flat-fee pricing versus percentage-based POS fees.
Merchant/processor pricing: merchant commissions for card payments are percentage-based and scale with ticket size — criticized as unfair because service cost does not scale similarly.
Policy inconsistency: 2024 free-card policy for low-income earners (<1,500 TND/month) followed by reintroduced charges in 2025 — undermines trust and uptake.
Legal change effect: Feb 2025 check restrictions correlated with a surge in cash/credit money and higher financial exclusion.

Actionable recommendations (operational & regulatory)

Reprice merchant acquiring fees: shift from percentage-based commissions to fixed fees, or subsidize / zero-rate fees for merchants to encourage card acceptance.
Regulate or cap merchant interchange/acquirer fees where market players do not voluntarily lower prices.
Protect policy coherence: avoid back-and-forth rules (e.g., free card → fees); publish clear rollouts and transition timelines.
Define accountability for financial literacy programs: assign responsible parties (Central Bank, universities, economic institutions, industry associations) and tie programs to measurable adoption KPIs.
Expand payments infrastructure: increase POS terminals and mobile acquiring and reduce merchant onboarding friction and costs.
Use pricing/incentives to drive inclusion: offer free or very-low-cost basic bank accounts/cards for low-income segments and provide merchant incentives to accept electronic payments.
Monitor and report KPIs monthly: cash outside banking, card transaction volumes, POS penetration, merchant acceptance rates, financial inclusion rate, and effects on monetary aggregates — use these to calibrate interest-rate policy.

Organizational / tactical points for banks and regulators

Banks: revisit acquisition pricing and product design for low-income segments; treat card issuance as public-good infrastructure supporting macro stability.
Central Bank: prioritize objective measures (cash outside banking, electronic transaction share) and consider interventions if the market does not reduce merchant fees.
Industry coordination: develop a public-private playbook (subsidies, temporary fee caps, POS rollout targets) to accelerate network effects for digital payments.

Risks flagged

Large volumes of cash outside the banking system reduce monetary policy effectiveness and could force higher policy rates or heavier interventions to control inflation.
Laws removing cash-payment ceilings (e.g., Finance Law 26) risk reversing progress, facilitating tax evasion and enabling opaque large transactions.
Policy inconsistency (flip-flopping on fees and incentives) undermines consumer trust and slows adoption of digital payments.

Concrete, testable targets implied (recommended)

Reduce share of cash-in-circulation (measurable monthly; baseline implied by the 28B TND figure).
Increase card/transfer transaction volume to replace >30% of the check volume lost since Feb 2025.
Reduce merchant per-transaction cost to near-zero for small merchants (pilot programs with zero acquirer fee).
Rapidly expand POS penetration and achieve measurable declines in financial exclusion (target a meaningful reduction from the ~60% baseline; exact X% to be set by policymakers).

Presenters / sources

Mr. Moez Soussi — Professor and economic expert (primary speaker/analyst)
Madam Maryam — Host/interviewer
Marwan — Host/participant
Kalexpress — outlet hosting the discussion
Governor of the Central Bank — referenced as calling for financial literacy

Note: Numbers and characterizations are drawn from the panel discussion/transcript. Some phrasing reflects the speaker’s analysis and policy opinions rather than independently verified statistics.