ماذا يحدث في الاقتصاد التونسي؟

Key business / strategy takeaways

• High and rising cash usage in Tunisia is undermining monetary policy effectiveness and limiting digital payments adoption.
• Structural incentives and costs (not only financial literacy) drive cash use.
• Policy coherence, pricing reform, infrastructure expansion and clear accountability are needed to shift behaviors and support inclusion.

High-level problem

• Cash usage in Tunisia is historically high and increasing, reducing the Central Bank’s control over money supply and complicating monetary policy transmission.
• “Credit money” (laboni) reported at ~28 billion TND — described as a historical high and a sign of strong demand for cash.
• The Central Bank has emphasized financial literacy, but commentators argue that structural incentives and costs (fees, legal changes, infrastructure) are the primary drivers of cash preference.

Frameworks, processes & playbooks referenced

• Financial inclusion vs. exclusion: measure pre/post policy and set target inclusion rates (speaker referenced ~60% exclusion before the check law).
• Monetary policy transmission framework: large volumes of cash outside the banking system weaken central bank control and may force higher interest rates to fight inflation.
• Payments ecosystem design: align incentives across issuers (banks), acquirers (merchants), regulators (Central Bank) and users.
• Policy coherence checklist:
  1. Legal changes (e.g., check law, Finance Law)
  2. Infrastructure capacity (POS, digital rails)
  3. Cost/pricing model (merchant fees, interchange)
  4. Education & accountability (who delivers financial literacy and how it’s measured)

Key metrics, KPIs and timelines

• Credit money: ~28 billion TND (historic high).
• Check usage: fallen to roughly 70% of pre-law levels (implying ~30% decline since the Feb 2025 check law).
• Financial exclusion: quoted at ~60% before the check law (speaker argues exclusion increases with stricter check rules).

Policy / timeline markers:

• Feb 2025: New check law implemented (major behavioral impact).
• 2024: Policy introduced making bank cards free for incomes < 1,500 TND (later reversed; fees reintroduced in 2025).
• Finance Law 26: removed limits on cash payments for car/real estate > 5,000 TND (re-enables large cash deals).

Example pricing:

• Check commission: fixed 2,700 millimes per check (used as a best-practice comparator).
• Card issuance/usage fees (introduced after free-card policy): cited ranges 70–120 TND per year.

Concrete examples and case points

• Checks: fixed low per-transaction cost (2,700 millimes) — used to illustrate fairness of flat-fee pricing versus percentage-based POS fees.
• Merchant/processor pricing: merchant commissions for card payments are percentage-based and scale with ticket size — criticized as unfair because service cost does not scale similarly.
• Policy inconsistency: 2024 free-card policy for low-income earners (<1,500 TND/month) followed by reintroduced charges in 2025 — undermines trust and uptake.
• Legal change effect: Feb 2025 check restrictions correlated with a surge in cash/credit money and higher financial exclusion.

Actionable recommendations (operational & regulatory)

• Reprice merchant acquiring fees: shift from percentage-based commissions to fixed fees, or subsidize / zero-rate fees for merchants to encourage card acceptance.
• Regulate or cap merchant interchange/acquirer fees where market players do not voluntarily lower prices.
• Protect policy coherence: avoid back-and-forth rules (e.g., free card → fees); publish clear rollouts and transition timelines.
• Define accountability for financial literacy programs: assign responsible parties (Central Bank, universities, economic institutions, industry associations) and tie programs to measurable adoption KPIs.
• Expand payments infrastructure: increase POS terminals and mobile acquiring and reduce merchant onboarding friction and costs.
• Use pricing/incentives to drive inclusion: offer free or very-low-cost basic bank accounts/cards for low-income segments and provide merchant incentives to accept electronic payments.
• Monitor and report KPIs monthly: cash outside banking, card transaction volumes, POS penetration, merchant acceptance rates, financial inclusion rate, and effects on monetary aggregates — use these to calibrate interest-rate policy.

Organizational / tactical points for banks and regulators

• Banks: revisit acquisition pricing and product design for low-income segments; treat card issuance as public-good infrastructure supporting macro stability.
• Central Bank: prioritize objective measures (cash outside banking, electronic transaction share) and consider interventions if the market does not reduce merchant fees.
• Industry coordination: develop a public-private playbook (subsidies, temporary fee caps, POS rollout targets) to accelerate network effects for digital payments.

Risks flagged

• Large volumes of cash outside the banking system reduce monetary policy effectiveness and could force higher policy rates or heavier interventions to control inflation.
• Laws removing cash-payment ceilings (e.g., Finance Law 26) risk reversing progress, facilitating tax evasion and enabling opaque large transactions.
• Policy inconsistency (flip-flopping on fees and incentives) undermines consumer trust and slows adoption of digital payments.

Concrete, testable targets implied (recommended)

• Reduce share of cash-in-circulation (measurable monthly; baseline implied by the 28B TND figure).
• Increase card/transfer transaction volume to replace >30% of the check volume lost since Feb 2025.
• Reduce merchant per-transaction cost to near-zero for small merchants (pilot programs with zero acquirer fee).
• Rapidly expand POS penetration and achieve measurable declines in financial exclusion (target a meaningful reduction from the ~60% baseline; exact X% to be set by policymakers).

Presenters / sources

• Mr. Moez Soussi — Professor and economic expert (primary speaker/analyst)
• Madam Maryam — Host/interviewer
• Marwan — Host/participant
• Kalexpress — outlet hosting the discussion
• Governor of the Central Bank — referenced as calling for financial literacy

Note: Numbers and characterizations are drawn from the panel discussion/transcript. Some phrasing reflects the speaker’s analysis and policy opinions rather than independently verified statistics.