Summary of "Terungkap! Awal Prabowo "Jatuh Hati" dengan Menkeu Purbaya, Presentasi Beda!"

Presentation on the Indonesian Economy by Purbaya Yudi Sadewa

The video features a detailed presentation by Purbaya Yudi Sadewa, former Minister of Finance of Indonesia and chairman of the Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS). He addresses President Prabowo Subianto and other stakeholders about the current state and future prospects of the Indonesian economy.

Key Points from the Presentation

Economic Situation and Recovery Signs

At the end of the previous year, key economic indicators such as automotive sales, retail sales, cement sales, and the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed contraction, indicating economic difficulties.
Early 2025 data revealed a positive reversal:
- Automotive and retail sales turned positive.
- Cement sales increased.
- Manufacturing PMI remained above 50, signaling growth and optimism among manufacturers.

Consumer Confidence and Surveys

Surveys involving 1,700 heads of families across various Indonesian regions showed rising consumer confidence.
Indices exceeded 100, indicating optimism and a willingness to spend.
This consumer sentiment supports the view that the economy has bottomed out and is on a recovery path.

Leading Economic Index

LPS developed a leading economic index forecasting the economy’s direction for the next 6-12 months.
The index showed a rising trend from early 2025, suggesting continued economic expansion until at least 2030.
This outlook contrasts with past recessions in 1998, 2008, and 2020.

Stock Market Implications

The leading economic index’s upward trend diverges from the current stock market index (IHSG), which has fallen below fundamental values.
This divergence indicates a market overreaction.
The situation presents a buying opportunity for investors.

Public Satisfaction with Government

The consumer confidence index related to government performance (IKKP) reached its highest level since the survey’s inception.
This reflects strong public approval of President Prabowo’s administration.
Such socio-political stability is considered crucial for sustained economic growth.

Impact of Global Trade Wars

Purbaya analyzed Indonesia’s export commodities to the U.S. and compared them with competitors.
Indonesia benefits from higher tariffs imposed on competing countries like China and Vietnam.
This “hidden assistance” from U.S. trade policies potentially enhances Indonesia’s competitiveness.

Domestic Demand as Economic Backbone

Despite global economic uncertainties, Indonesia’s strong domestic demand remains a solid foundation for growth.
Domestic demand consists of:
- Consumption (~63%)
- Investment (~32%)
Government policies focus on maintaining this domestic demand to buffer against external shocks.

Financial Sector Stability and Credit Growth

Coordination among Bank Indonesia, OJK (Financial Services Authority), and the Ministry of Finance has maintained financial sector stability.
Credit growth continues, with investment credit rising to over 14%.
This reflects business expansion and economic optimism, which may not be widely visible on social media platforms.

Overall Outlook

The presentation conveys a positive outlook for Indonesia’s economy, emphasizing:

Economic recovery
Stable governance
Strategic advantages amid global trade tensions

Investors are encouraged to consider current market conditions favorable for stock purchases.

Presenters and Contributors

Purbaya Yudi Sadewa — Chairman of LPS, Former Minister of Finance
President Prabowo Subianto — Audience
Mentioned but not directly presenting:
- Mr. Erlangga
- Mrs. Sri
- Mr. Luhud
- Mr. Iskandar (IPB, ISI)