Summary of "ЕНЕРГЕТИЧНЕ ПЕРЕМИРʼЯ! Аналітика. Дмитро Кулеба"

Context and timeline

Dmytro Kuleba records from generator-powered Kyiv amid severe winter power outages, describing the recent short-lived “energy truce” between Russia and Ukraine.
He traces the background to late‑2023 talks and escalating attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure through winter 2024–2025, calling this the hardest winter in Ukraine’s independence with massive damage to power, heating, and water systems.
Trilateral negotiations in the UAE involving the US and Russia were underway when Russia launched a major strike against Kyiv’s energy sector. That attack provoked US anger and increased pressure on Moscow.

What happened with the “energy truce”

Around 27–28 January a leak and subsequent statements suggested Putin had ordered a halt to strikes on energy facilities; the situation was unclear and Peskov initially retracted comments.
Former US President Trump publicly claimed he had asked Putin to stop strikes on energy infrastructure; Russian confirmation followed but was imprecise.
There was an apparent pause on energy-targeted strikes from the night of 28–29 January, but Russia continued strikes on other infrastructure.
On 29 January Peskov clarified the order covered energy facilities in Kyiv only and lasted until 1 February — effectively a two‑day, limited pause.

Analysis and lessons

Putin responds to direct pressure or signals from Trump — i.e., Trump can influence Putin’s behavior politically.
Continued strikes against non-energy targets during the pause indicate Russia did not intend a genuine cessation of hostilities; the pause was demonstrative and limited.
The truce is largely fictitious and unlikely to become permanent; extension chances are low without stronger, sustained pressure.

Motives and consequences

Kuleba argues Russia’s campaign aims to:
- Destroy Ukraine’s energy system,
- Wreck the economy,
- Break public morale,
- Sow internal discord (blame and infighting among citizens, local authorities, and utilities).
He urges Ukrainians not to turn on each other, to resist disinformation (for example, false claims of electricity theft or coordinated sale abroad), and to support energy workers and state efforts to keep services barely functioning.

Policy implications and needs

Continued diplomatic and practical pressure from the US and partners is essential; Kuleba suggests targeting Russian energy logistics (including shipping networks) as part of that pressure.
European financial aid (referenced as roughly €90 billion pledged at year end) is a crucial stabilizer for Ukraine’s economy amid shutdowns and business closures.
He praises energy workers and government teams struggling to keep minimal power and heat, calling for unity and mutual support to survive the winter.

Tone and closing

The speaker is somber but resolute: the pause was temporary and unreliable. Ukraine must prepare for more attacks, avoid internal division, and rely on international assistance to endure and emerge stronger.