Summary of "Що добʼє Росію | Віталій Портников @kspa_ua"

The video features a detailed conversation with political analyst and journalist Vitaliy Portnikov about the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, focusing on prospects for its end, internal Russian politics, and international dynamics.

Key Points:

Prospects for Ending the War in 2025
- Ukrainian officials and some Western politicians express hope that the war’s hot phase could end soon, possibly by 2025.
- Portnikov is skeptical, stating the war’s end depends primarily on Russian President Vladimir Putin, not Ukraine.
- He doubts any realistic scenario exists for ending the war’s hot phase in 2025 or even in the 2030s, given current conditions and political realities.
- The continuation of the war is linked to Putin’s decisions and Russia’s internal political and financial dynamics.
Russian Internal Politics and the Role of Kozak
- The dismissal of Putin’s advisor Kozak, who allegedly favored ending the war on terms favorable to Trump, is discussed.
- Portnikov dismisses Western media narratives about Kremlin factionalism, emphasizing the centralized, authoritarian nature of Putin’s regime.
- Kozak’s role involved destabilizing Ukraine politically, but he lost influence to Kiriyenko, who controls domestic and post-Soviet policy.
- The conflict over influence and financial control within the Kremlin is framed as a struggle for power and money, not ideological dissent.
Putin’s Leadership and Succession
- Putin’s regime is described as a unique authoritarian system dominated by the security services (FSB/chekists), unlike any historical precedent.
- There is no clear successor or collective leadership ready to replace Putin, and his departure could lead to unpredictable power struggles.
- Unlike Soviet collective leadership, Putin’s one-man rule makes foreign policy and war decisions highly personalized and less subject to internal checks.
US Politics and Trump’s Role
- Trump is portrayed as having a close relationship with Putin and as someone who would offer Putin more favorable terms than Biden.
- Trump’s approach to sanctions and tariffs is criticized as economically naive and ineffective in curbing Russia’s war efforts.
- The complexity of globalized economies undermines the impact of tariffs on Russia, especially given Russia’s supply of critical resources like uranium.
- Trump’s political style is described as populist and authoritarian-leaning, with a tendency to avoid confronting autocrats seriously.
Sanctions and Economic Warfare
- Current sanctions and tariffs on Russian oil and products have limited effectiveness due to global trade networks and countries like India increasing Russian oil purchases.
- More targeted sanctions on companies buying Russian oil could reduce Russia’s energy exports but are complicated by geopolitical alliances.
- The video highlights the difficulty in imposing meaningful economic pressure on Russia without broader international cooperation.
Military Developments and NATO’s Response
- Recent drone attacks on Polish and Romanian territories and their implications are discussed.
- NATO’s hesitant response to drone incursions reflects fear of escalating the conflict into a direct NATO-Russia confrontation.
- The suggestion is made for NATO to create a drone exclusion zone over parts of Ukraine and neighboring NATO countries to prevent further incursions.
- The presence of American troops at Russian military exercises signals shifting attitudes in the US administration.
Historical Analogies and Lessons
- Comparisons are drawn between Putin’s actions and Hitler’s pre-WWII provocations, emphasizing the dangers of appeasement and delayed responses.
- The cyclical nature of history and the consequences of underestimating aggressors are underscored.
- The Finnish Winter War and World War I are referenced to illustrate the challenges of prolonged conflict and societal resilience.
Ukrainian Society and Public Opinion
- Despite ongoing attacks and hardships, Ukrainian public opinion remains steadfast in supporting resistance and not yielding to Russian demands.
- Air terror and propaganda alone are insufficient to break societal will without direct occupation.
- The war’s long-term impact on Russian society could lead to internal degradation and eventual collapse, a strategy Putin seems to be pursuing.
Cultural and Social Commentary
- The interview with Russian singer Alla Pugacheva, who expressed anti-war sentiments, sparked significant reactions in Russian society, reflecting the deep divisions and risks for dissenters in Russia.
- The discussion highlights the limited influence of Russian public opinion on Kremlin policies and the risks faced by public figures opposing the war.
Broader Geopolitical Context
- The video touches on the complex relations between Russia, China, and the West, including the significance of military parades and diplomatic maneuvers.
- It also briefly discusses political instability in Nepal as a comparative example of communist governance and coalition struggles.

Conclusion:

Portnikov offers a realistic and cautious analysis, warning against optimism about a quick end to the conflict given the entrenched political dynamics and the personalized nature of Putin’s rule.