Какой будет цена на золото в 2026

Finance-focused summary (gold outlook to end-2026)

Gold price behavior (volatility)

Gold is portrayed as no longer acting like a “safe haven” and instead behaving like a high-volatility / “aggressive fortress” asset. The video highlights a choppy sequence over ~4 months:

• +30%
• -20%
• rebound
• -20% again

Net effect: elevated volatility and meaningful drawdowns.

Core thesis

The speaker’s view is that central banks remain net buyers (supportive for gold over the long run), but speculative positioning and Fed-rate expectations can still cause short-term selloffs and corrections.

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Central bank gold purchases (macro support vs. expectations)

Framework / data points used

The analysis compares:

• Expected central bank buying pace (from an investment bank report), versus
• Actual reported buying (from an official World Gold Council quarterly report).

Key numbers

• End-2025 forecast / assumption: central banks expected to buy ~60 tons/month throughout 2026.
• Investment bank claim (February): purchases were only ~2 tons versus the expectation of ~60 tons/month.
• World Gold Council official report (Q1):
  • Net purchases: 244 tons in Q1
  • Implies >80 tons/month (244 / 3)
  • QoQ increase: +17% vs the prior quarter

Interpretation: central banks are described as taking advantage of price corrections, rather than buying a uniform amount every month.

Major buyers / sellers (countries mentioned)

Major buyers:

• Poland
• Uzbekistan
• China

Major sellers:

• Turkey
• Russia
• Azerbaijan

Stated reasons for selling (non-price-related):

• Turkey: support the exchange rate of the national currency
• Russia: balance a budget deficit
• Azerbaijan: meet storage/limit constraints on gold holdings

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Private sector / “digital dollar” and gold allocation

• Instrument mentioned: USDT (Tether; described as the digital dollar issuer)
• Key number: Tether bought ~6% of gold during Q1

Context: framed as Tether being a large private gold holder outside central banks.

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Why gold corrected despite central bank buying (speculators + Fed expectations)

Fed policy expectations

• Early 2026 view: markets expected two cuts of 0.25% each (-0.50% total) during 2026.
• More recent view: analysts now largely expect no Fed cuts in 2026.

Mechanism described: if the Fed doesn’t cut (or cuts are delayed), real yields / discounting can pressure gold—particularly for speculators who bought on a lower-rates thesis.

Macro driver behind rate expectations

• Middle East war → higher energy prices → higher inflation expectations
• Speaker’s logic: higher inflation weakens the case for stimulus/rate cuts.

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Speculator positioning and derivatives clearing (risk/flow detail)

Positioning and “excess” reduction

• Positioning percentile: speculative investor groups at the 41st percentile (since 2014, higher in 59 cases).
• Excess reduction estimate: excess has already fallen by about 2/3, implying roughly 2/3 of sell volume may already be done.

Options (calls vs puts)

• 60–70% of excess call buying vs puts (described as growth bets vs decline bets) is said to be already cleared.

Near-term conclusion: because speculators may still hold excess gold, the speaker is cautious in the short term.

ETF transmission channel

Gold exposure is described as flowing through “gold ETFs”:

• ETF issuers buy physical gold in the market.

Q1 ETF flow numbers (as stated):

• “gold and TEV purchases” slowed but were ~62 tons in Q1 (and less than Q1 2025)
• then it states: “gold ETFs bought approximately 230 tons”
  • The subtitle text is internally inconsistent, but the intended point appears to be highlighting large ETF-driven physical demand (possibly across a different sub-period/series).

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Scenario analysis for Fed and gold (until end-2026)

Scenario 1: Baseline (more likely)

• Middle East conflict ends within weeks to months
• energy prices fall
• inflation expectations decrease
• markets revisit “why the Fed still isn’t cutting”
• rates likely fall again → gold supportive

Scenario 2: Adverse (less favorable)

• Conflict intensifies
• energy prices rise → inflation expectations rise
• if oil rises to $150–$200 and stays there:
  • higher oil costs can increase recession risk / strain demand
  • recession risk pushes the Fed toward stimulus
  • rate cuts become more likely → gold supportive

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Explicit gold price target & recommendation

Target

• End-2026 target reaffirmed at $5,400–$5,500 per troy ounce.

Action described

They plan to increase exposure to gold by taking advantage of volatility and corrections.

Portfolio guidance

• Speaker offers consultations to adjust portfolio gold allocation % (framed as calibration/review by independent experts).

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Disclosures / disclaimers

No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer was captured verbatim in the provided subtitles.

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Assets / instruments / tickers mentioned

• Gold (implied: price per troy ounce, including central bank gold)
• USDT (Tether; issuer of the digital dollar)
• Gold ETFs (generic; no specific ticker named)
• Oil (macro driver; $150–$200 range mentioned)
• Fed policy / interest rates (macro variable; no ticker)

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Key numbers & timelines (as stated)

• ~4 months: gold +30%, -20%, rebound, then -20%
• 2026 rate path:
  • initial expectation: two cuts of 0.25% each
  • updated expectation: no cuts expected
• Central banks:
  • February expectation: ~60 tons/month
  • February “actual” (investment bank report): ~2 tons
  • Q1 actual (World Gold Council): 244 tons
  • +17% QoQ
• Spec positioning / derivatives:
  • 41st percentile
  • excess cleared: ~2/3
  • options imbalance cleared: ~60–70%
• Oil scenario trigger: $150–$200 sustained
• Gold target: end-2026 at $5,400–$5,500/oz

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Methodology / framework explicitly used

• Cross-check expected vs reported central bank buying
  • investment bank assumption (60 tons/month)
  • February deviation (~2 tons)
  • World Gold Council Q1 totals (244 tons)
• Decompose flows and positioning to explain price action
  • central bank buying/selling
  • ETF-related physical demand
  • speculative positioning and options (calls vs puts)
  • macro driver via Fed rate expectations and inflation/energy shocks
• Scenario planning for Fed policy
  • Middle East resolves → energy down → inflation down → rate cuts re-emerge
  • Middle East intensifies + oil $150–$200 → recession risk → eventual stimulus

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Presenters / sources (mentioned in subtitles)

• World Gold Council (source of Q1 central bank purchase data)
• One of the largest investment banks (cited for February purchase expectations vs 2 tons)
• Survey of central bank representatives / investment bank survey
  • mentioned: 70% want to increase gold reserves this year
• Tether (discussed as the issuer of USDT and its gold allocation)
• Fed (US Federal Reserve) (discussed via rate expectations)
• “Our analysts / our channel” (the speaker/brand hosting the video and offering consultations)