EILT: „Bis Ende APRIL bleibts ruhig… dann passiert DAS (Betrifft auch dich!)“

Key takeaways

• Presenters argue we are entering a major commodity bull cycle, with the big commodity/energy bull market expected to run from 2026 onward. Primary drivers cited are currency devaluation and constrained physical supply (especially oil).

• Short-term: a pause or correction in oil and heightened volatility is expected. Long-term: very large oil price moves are projected later in 2026 and beyond.

• Recommended positioning: inflation/commodities first (gold, silver, energy, industrial metals), then later increase exposure to agricultural commodities — but timing and risk management are emphasized (do not buy large agricultural positions immediately).

• Macro drivers emphasized: currency debasement, liquidity injections, and geopolitics (notably Iran conflict and potential disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz).

Assets / instruments / sectors mentioned

• Oil (focus on physical crude vs futures)
• Gold, silver, other precious metals
• Copper and other industrial metals
• Agricultural commodities: soybeans, wheat, corn, sugar
• Energy sector broadly
• US Treasuries / government bonds
• US Dollar / Dollar Index
• Bitcoin / crypto (referenced historically)
• Equities (S&P 500 / MSCI World references)
• Proprietary products/indicators: Invest in Best fund, Invest in Best membership, Momentum model, liquidity indicator, IEB P/E ratio, Invest in Best Performance AMC at Zeus

Methodology / framework

• Cycle-based trend research (long, medium, short cycles) to time macro/commodity phases.
• Momentum models and ratios (e.g., gold–oil ratio incorporated into their Momentum model) to identify rotation points between gold and oil.
• Liquidity monitoring via a proprietary liquidity indicator (built on Bloomberg data) to time market turning points.
• Comparison of physical vs futures oil prices — physical price is asserted to matter more than the futures curve.
• Proprietary valuation/timing metric: IEB P/E (an evolution of the Shiller P/E) to signal exits from inflation/commodity trades.
• Portfolio transparency and performance tracking (they publish two‑year performance).

Clear numbers, price targets, timelines, and metrics

• Short-term oil downside scenario: possible retracement to about $80/barrel.
• Late‑2026 / longer-term oil targets: stated “well above $150–200” per barrel; a conservative long-term bet around $200; scenarios up to $250–$300/barrel depending on disruptions.
• Physical oil price claim: roughly 30% higher than futures/market pricing.
• Gold target mentioned: 4,200 (presumably USD/oz).
• Inflation claims: indicators said to be already above 6% — one statement said “or rather above 7%.”
• Dollar Index: noted that the dollar has failed to breach the 100 level — read as a sign of dollar weakness and a potential currency crash.
• Portfolio performance: 246% cumulative return over two years (starting Q24) — per presenters’ claim.
• Timelines called out:
  • Commodity bull market start: 2026 and beyond.
  • Agricultural season / sowing begins April 2026 (agriculture seen as the next leg).
  • Strait of Hormuz disruptions referenced since Feb 28 (with mentions of vessels briefly transiting Feb 12 and Apr 12).
  • Expect additional major oil-related supply shocks toward summer or autumn 2026.
  • Possible severe winter impacts in Central Europe in 2026/2027 if energy shock worsens.

Explicit recommendations and cautions

• Recommendations:
  • Position for inflation and commodities: start with gold, then energy/industrial metals, and move into agriculture when timing signals align.
  • Use timing signals (proprietary models/indicators) rather than buying blindly.
• Cautions:
  • Do not rush to buy large agricultural positions now — timing matters.
  • Short-term oil trading is risky given expected volatility and likely short-term correction; treat oil as a long-term thematic trade.
  • Beware of divergences between physical market prices and futures pricing.
• Disclaimer quoted by presenters:

  “without any investment recommendation”

Risk, macro and market context emphasized

• Core structural problem presented: currency debasement (a coming “currency crash”) expected to drive commodity inflation.
• Geopolitics (particularly Iran conflict and disruptions in shipping/pipelines) viewed as structural drivers capable of pushing commodity prices much higher.
• Central banks are said to be constrained — unable to meaningfully raise rates due to deficits/financing needs — implying more liquidity and inflation risk.
• Liquidity breakout (per their liquidity indicator) is seen as signaling a market turning point and continued bullish conditions into summer — favorable for commodities but potentially compressing short-term oil returns.

Performance / indicator claims

• Invest in Best liquidity indicator: described as showing a “massive breakout” in liquidity.
• Invest in Best inflation indicator: described as showing inflation rising sharply (claimed above 6–7%).
• IEB P/E ratio: used to time exits from inflation trades/gold — presenters say only when the ratio hits a deep low (comparable to extreme historical crises) should one sell gold.
• Historical claims: presenters cite past episodes where oil outperformed gold and produced substantial returns; some numeric subtitle figures were garbled in the transcript.

Disclosures / disclaimers

• Presenters repeatedly state “without any investment recommendation” and do not issue explicit buy orders.
• Promotional references to paid products (Invest in Best membership, Invest in Best Performance AMC at Zeus, free financial test) — potential conflict of interest.
• No formal regulatory disclaimer was quoted verbatim (e.g., “not financial advice” not provided as a formal statement).

Points of uncertainty / subtitle garbling to note

• Several numeric return examples in the transcript were garbled (e.g., sequences such as “29 to 214 185%”) — treat those figures as unreliable.
• The portfolio performance claim (246% over two years) is stated clearly in the transcript but not independently verified here.
• Some geopolitically dated references (exact ship passage dates) are inconsistently stated in the subtitles.

Bottom-line actionable items (investor takeaway)

1. Review allocations for inflation/commodity exposure (gold, silver, energy, industrial metals).
2. Consider agriculture later in 2026 but await timing signals before increasing exposure.
3. Be cautious with short-term oil trading — watch for a pullback toward ~$80 as a possible short-term correction; maintain a longer time horizon for oil exposure.
4. Monitor US Dollar Index, liquidity indicators, and the Invest-in-Best momentum/IEB P/E signals before making large directional bets.
5. Independently verify any product or performance claims before subscribing to paid services.

Presenters / sources

• Deutsch Benjamin
• Hannes Hortnagel
• Organization / brand: Invest in Best (and related proprietary indicators/products)