Summary of "📉𝟱𝟬% పడిపోయిన Stocks—what to buy now?"

📉 50% పడిపోయిన Stocks—what to buy now?

Market Context & Macroeconomic Overview

Over the past 1.5 years, Indian stock markets have been challenging, with recent 10-day periods showing worsening conditions.
While Sensex and Nifty indices are rising, mid-cap and small-cap stocks continue to decline, causing portfolio losses despite index gains.
Indian stock market corrections over the past year include:
- 452 stocks corrected more than 50%.
- 424 stocks corrected between 40%-50%.
- 1305 stocks corrected 40% within 20 days.
- 637 stocks corrected between 10%-20%.
- 472 stocks corrected 0%-10%.
- Only 1466 stocks delivered positive returns over the last year.
Many investors feel frustrated and confused, questioning if stock market investing is worthwhile.

Historical Comparison & Market Cycles

The current scenario is compared to a similar period from 2018-2020 (excluding the Covid crash):
- Nifty Small Cap 250 Index corrected by 17%.
- Nifty Midcap Index delivered negative CAGR returns between -5.82% and -8%.
- Nifty 100 and Nifty 50 delivered positive CAGR returns of 6.58% and 8.45%, respectively.
This demonstrates that large-cap indices can deliver positive returns even when mid and small caps struggle.

Investment Strategy & Portfolio Construction

Small-cap funds are highly volatile but represent significant portions of many portfolios.
Case Study: Nippon Small Cap Fund
- Hypothetical SIP starting June 2017 of ₹10,000 monthly till January 2020.
- Total invested: ₹310,000 initially, rising to ₹1,010,000 if continued.
- Three scenarios discussed:
  1. Withdraw during downturn: Loss realized; money parked in low-return fixed deposits (FDs).
  2. Stop SIP but keep invested: Fund value grew to approx ₹1,380,000 with ~22.75% annualized return (ARR).
  3. Continue SIP throughout: Fund value approx ₹3,000,000 with ~24.97% ARR.
Conclusion: Continuing SIPs during downturns leads to better corpus growth and higher returns.
Emphasizes patience and long-term investing, especially during volatile periods.

Recommendations & Cautions

Small-cap funds: Previously advised to stop SIPs 1.5 years ago due to high valuations; now recommended to gradually increase small-cap allocation according to risk tolerance.
Funds and sectors to consider for fresh investments:
- Small-cap funds (via SIP or Systematic Transfer Plan (STP) for liquidity).
- Banking sector funds/stocks: currently at decade-low valuations, expected to recover strongly.
- Consumption-related sectors, especially discretionary spending (e.g., apparel, vehicles, housing), expected to benefit from potential GST or income tax cuts and increased spending.
Stock sectors with potential:
- Railway-related companies benefiting from increased government capital expenditure.
- Defense sector companies, supported by ongoing government investment and factory visits by the presenter.
Advises against blindly copying stock recommendations; instead, use ideas as starting points for personal research and conviction building.

Risk Management & Investor Psychology

Investing during downturns is emotionally challenging. Historical data suggests markets recover after such phases, often with strong returns. Investors are encouraged not to panic or exit prematurely but to stay invested or increase allocation prudently.

Warns about scams falsely claiming association with the channel.

Methodology / Framework Highlighted

Analyze historical market corrections and compare index performance across market caps.
Use real mutual fund data (Nippon Small Cap Fund) to illustrate SIP impact during downturns.
Present multiple investor scenarios (withdraw, stop SIP, continue SIP) to show long-term outcomes.
Recommend sector-wise allocation based on macroeconomic trends and valuation.
Encourage research-based stock picking rather than blind following.

Key Numbers & Timelines

452 stocks down >50% in last 1 year.
1466 stocks delivered positive returns in last 1 year.
2018-2020 Nifty 50 CAGR: +8.45%; Nifty Midcap CAGR: -5.82% to -8%.
SIP example: ₹10,000 monthly from June 2017 to Jan 2020.
- Invested ₹310,000 → fund value ₹330,000 (negative return initially).
- Continuing SIP till date → fund value ₹1,380,000 to ₹3,000,000 with 22.75%-24.97% ARR.

Disclaimers

Presenter clarifies no financial incentives or paid promotions.
Information shared is factual and for educational purposes only.
Investment decisions are individual choices; viewers should consult financial advisors.
Emphasizes not to blindly follow stock tips but to research independently.

Assets, Sectors, and Instruments Mentioned

Indices: Sensex, Nifty, Nifty 50, Nifty 100, Nifty Midcap, Nifty Small Cap 250.
Mutual Funds: Nippon Small Cap Fund.
Sectors: Small caps, banking, consumption (discretionary), railway-related companies, defense companies.
Instruments: SIPs, STPs, fixed deposits (FDs).

Presenter / Source

Sai Krishna Patri, Money Purse channel.

Summary

The video addresses the confusion and pain investors face amid broad market corrections, especially in mid and small caps, despite gains in large-cap indices like Sensex and Nifty. Using historical data and a real small-cap fund case study, it strongly advocates continuing SIPs during downturns to build wealth over time. It recommends increasing small-cap allocation now, investing in undervalued sectors like banking, consumption, railways, and defense, and cautions against panic selling or blindly following stock tips. The content is educational, unbiased, and encourages personal research and financial advice consultation.