Summary of "I Just bought a New Stock‼️"
Summary of Finance-Specific Content from “I Just bought a New Stock‼️”
Portfolio & Market Context
- The public account is fluctuating around the $4 million mark, recently gaining $59,000 in a single day.
- Multiple private group members have hit portfolio milestones:
- 4 members reached 7-figure portfolios.
- 8 members hit 6-figure portfolios.
- The video covers multiple stocks with notable portfolio gains and updates on earnings and outlooks.
Stocks Discussed & Key Insights
Revolve (Ticker: RVLV)
- Sector: E-commerce, primarily female demographic, apparel/clothing.
- Market Cap: Approximately $1.5 billion.
- Financial Highlights:
- Net sales up 4% year-over-year (YoY).
- Gross profit up 11%.
- Net income up 97%.
- Strong balance sheet with $300M+ cash, $251M assets vs. $291M liabilities.
- Investment Thesis: Small cap with strong execution, solid fundamentals, and good management.
- Public Account Gain: 100%.
- Outlook: Positive momentum expected; potential to increase position size.
FuboTV (Ticker: FUBO)
- Sector: Streaming/tech.
- Stock recently broke $4/share, up 80% in the public account.
- Transitioning from speculative to less speculative.
- Connected with Disney and has a solid balance sheet.
- Expected to reach triple-digit gains soon.
- Commentary: Stock undervalued under $5 given fundamentals and partnerships.
AMD (Ticker: AMD)
- Sector: Semiconductor/tech.
- Public Account Gain: $370,000+.
- Strong earnings and product roadmap, especially data center growth with MI400/450 series expected late next year.
- Growth Scenarios:
- Bull Case (10% probability): 40% revenue CAGR, 50% net income CAGR, price target $845–$1,100 by 2029.
- Base Case (80% probability): 35% revenue CAGR, 45% net income CAGR, price target $670–$800 by 2029 (~30% CAGR).
- Bare Case (10% probability): 20% revenue CAGR, potential money loser.
- Viewed as a resilient, high-growth stock despite market volatility and AI fears.
SoFi (Ticker: SOFI)
- Sector: Fintech.
- Current Gain: 262%, $108,000+ in public account.
- Compared to Robinhood (Ticker: HOOD):
- SoFi up 18% last month; Robinhood down 3%.
- SoFi less reliant on volatile crypto and stock trading; focuses on traditional banking products (loans, bank accounts).
- Thesis: Most exciting fintech company long-term, with potential to surpass Robinhood.
- Emphasis on customer base quality (banking customers vs. trading customers).
Shopify (Ticker: SHOP)
- Sector: E-commerce platform.
- Second largest position in Patreon portfolio, up 146%.
- Financials:
- Revenue growth: 32% YoY ($2.1B to $2.8B).
- Gross profit: $1.4B from $1.1B.
- Operating income: $343M from $283M.
- Operating expenses increased, especially sales/marketing and transaction loan losses.
- Market Position: ~12% US e-commerce market share, serving small, mid-size, and some large companies (e.g., ELF, Estee Lauder).
- Long-Term View: Asset-light software company with potential for significant profitability.
- Historical Stock Performance: Up ~5,800% since IPO, outperforming many big tech stocks except Nvidia.
Honest Company (Ticker: HNST)
- Sector: Consumer goods.
- Market Cap: Approximately $300 million.
- Financials:
- Revenue down from $99M to $92M.
- Gross profit down from $38M to $34M.
- Operating expenses down, SG&A improved.
- Strong balance sheet: $71M+ cash, more cash than total liabilities.
- Business Model: Undergoing “Transformation 2.0”
- Exiting 21–22% of revenue-generating product categories to focus on higher-margin products.
- Expect short-term revenue decline but improved profitability and margins long-term.
- Potential strategic positioning for acquisition by larger consumer goods companies or private equity.
- Trust in management’s turnaround ability emphasized.
American Express (Ticker: AXP) — New Purchase
- Sector: Financial services/credit cards.
- Price at Purchase: Approximately $365/share.
- Investment Thesis:
- Stable, cash-generative business with strong brand and customer base.
- Growth Scenarios:
- Bold Case (10% probability): 10% revenue growth, 15% net income growth, $800–$950 price target by 2029.
- Base Case (80% probability): 8% revenue growth, 12% net income growth, $700–$800 price target by 2029.
- Bare Case (8% probability): 5% revenue growth, 8% net income growth, still positive CAGR of 4–10%.
- Share buybacks expected to accelerate EPS growth beyond net income growth.
- Pays quarterly dividends.
- Described as a “stress-free” stock with reliable returns and low risk.
- Long-term buy and hold candidate.
Elf Beauty (Ticker: ELF)
- Sector: Cosmetics/beauty.
- Financials:
- Revenue up from $301M to $343M.
- Gross profit up from $214M to $238M.
- SG&A increased sharply from $186M to $231M.
- Operating income down from $28M to $7.7M.
- Net income fell from $19M to $3M; EPS dropped from $0.33 to $0.05.
- Interest expense increased significantly.
- Guidance: 18–20% revenue growth forecast for fiscal 2026, considered conservative.
- Recent two consecutive quarters missed revenue estimates after a long streak of 19 quarters beating revenue.
- Stock highly volatile historically, with multiple large crashes and recoveries.
- Long-Term Thesis: Potential to become a major cosmetics company ($300–$500 stock in 5–10 years).
- Emphasized volatility and importance of holding through corrections.
Risk Management & Investing Philosophy
- Emphasis on diversification to manage individual stock volatility.
- Acknowledgment that portfolios will have losers and crashes; this is the “cost of doing business.”
- Importance of fundamental analysis: income statements, balance sheets, cash flows, PE ratios, growth projections.
- Use of probability-weighted bull/base/bare case scenarios for valuation and risk assessment.
- Patience and willingness to endure short-term pain for long-term gains.
- Long-term mindset: success requires enduring market volatility and company-specific setbacks.
- Encouragement to do deep research and prepare for multiple outcomes.
Performance Metrics & Methodologies Shared
- Growth rate assumptions (revenue and net income CAGR) used to project stock prices out to 2029.
- Use of probability weights (10% bull, 80% base, 10% bare case) to frame expectations.
- Importance of share buybacks in EPS growth.
- Grading of companies’ financials (e.g., Revolve B+, Honest C-, Elf D).
- Tracking historical revenue and profit growth trends.
- Comparing recent earnings and guidance against historical performance.
- Monitoring balance sheet strength (cash vs. liabilities).
- Evaluation of market positioning and competitive moat.
- Recognition of macroeconomic factors (inflation, tariffs, market selloffs).
Disclaimers & Disclosures
Not explicitly stated as financial advice but strongly implied that viewers should do their own research. Emphasizes personal opinions and projections. Encourages joining private stock groups for deeper insights. Acknowledges inherent risks and volatility in stock investing.
Presenters / Sources
- Presenter: Jeremy Lefave (also references his own reaction channel and private stock group).
- References to interviews and clips from Alex Karp and Tom Lee (in AMD discussion).
- Frequent mention of private stock group insights and Patreon portfolio.
Overall, the video provides detailed fundamental analysis and personal investment theses on several stocks across sectors including e-commerce, fintech, semiconductors, consumer goods, and financial services. It stresses a disciplined, research-driven approach with probabilistic scenario planning and a long-term investment horizon. The new stock purchase highlighted is American Express (AXP), characterized as a low-risk, dividend-paying, cash-generative financial services company with attractive growth and buyback potential.
Category
Finance
