Summary of "MICHAEL OLIVER | This isn't over yet: it's only 7-8 weeks into the unleashing!"

Summary

This note summarizes Michael Oliver’s view (guest on Metals & Miners) that we are in the early phase of a powerful precious‑metals bull cycle — especially for silver — following a technical breakout that began in November. Oliver calls the move an “unleashing,” believes most of the upside will play out into the summer, and emphasizes momentum/relative‑spread signals over raw price.

Central thesis

We are in the early weeks of a new precious‑metals bull cycle, led by a technical breakout in silver relative to gold that began in November.
Oliver characterizes the start of the move as an “unleashing” and expects much more upside ahead, with silver likely to dramatically outperform but not necessarily lead gold.

Silver: breakout and potential

Silver has broken out of a multi‑decade basing pattern versus gold.
Current silver/gold ratio noted ~2.1% (still cheap versus prior bull peaks of ~6.5% in 1979–80 and ~3.1% in 2010–11).
Historically, such breakouts have preceded very fast, large gains (triples/quadruples in a few quarters in prior episodes).
Oliver expects most of the major upside to unfold into the summer (June–July).
Plausible price scenarios cited:
- Silver into the low hundreds in a strong move.
- In a stronger replay of prior dimensional moves, silver could reach mid‑hundreds (3–500 range).
Caveat: short intraday/shorter‑term drops (the “jiggles”) should be expected as the move progresses.

Timing and indicators

The silver vs gold breakout occurred in November.
Oliver monitors monthly and weekly momentum and “clock” metrics derived from past breakouts.
He expects a meaningful mid‑move pause or “jiggle” around late February to early/mid March, viewing that as a midpoint rather than the top.

Gold outlook

Oliver expects gold to continue higher.
He references a historical “eightfold” dimension from prior bear lows to bull highs and uses that heuristic to sketch a notional, illustrative target near $8,500 (not presented as a firm cap).
Silver is expected to outperform gold on a percentage basis, though not necessarily lead the initial advance.

Miners

Gold and silver miners have broken out in relative performance versus the S&P after an ~11‑year basing pattern.
Indices like XAU divided by gold are breaking out (an ~8.7% move was noted), implying miners could materially outperform both gold and the broader equity market.
Upcoming Q4 earnings reports may provide performance evidence that attracts more capital into miners.

Market structure and coordinated breakouts

Multiple relative spreads broke out together:
- Gold vs S&P
- Silver vs S&P
- Miners vs S&P
- Silver vs gold
Oliver interprets these coordinated spread breakouts as a clear technical signal that asset‑class flows have shifted toward the monetary/metals complex.

Dollar and bond market context

U.S. dollar:
- Long‑term momentum is broken.
- The dollar sits on an important resistance/trendline (around the 97 area).
- Continued dollar weakness would act as fuel for precious metals.
Bond market:
- T‑bonds/T‑notes and yields are vulnerable.
- Central banks (including the Fed) have been buying bonds since November to steady the market.
- If sellers break key technical supports in bonds despite central‑bank buying, a panic could follow — which Oliver expects would be strongly bullish for gold, silver, and miners.

Macro and monetary narrative

Beyond industrial demand for silver (AI, solar, electronics), Oliver emphasizes the monetary case:
- Silver is structurally under‑owned and under‑priced relative to gold.
- The real value of fiat has been deteriorating (M2 expansion, central‑bank interventions).
- Overvalued equities and shaky sovereign‑bond markets could reroute capital toward precious metals.
Oliver sees the move as driven primarily by monetary re‑pricing and structural under‑ownership rather than transient market narratives.

Risk and positioning advice

Expect sharp intraday and short‑term reversals; these pullbacks have been getting briefer over time.
Oliver has been reducing leveraged positions and shifting to outright long bullion and miners.
He recommends caution with leverage going into the expected mid‑move jiggle, and considering adding leverage more safely after that midpoint.
Emphasizes being nimble and using momentum and relative‑spread signals rather than price alone to guide positioning.

Noise and narratives to ignore

Many online voices are prematurely calling a top; historically, those consensus calls during the build have been wrong.
Short‑term signals like Shanghai spot premiums and COMEX vault reports are described as sidelined phenomena — they come and go and are not the central story according to Oliver.

Practical notes and follow‑up

Michael Oliver’s research firm: Momentum Structural Analysis (oliversa.com).
Host (Gary Bone) points listeners to Metals & Miners’ Substack for follow‑up content and additional commentary.