MICHAEL OLIVER | This isn't over yet: it's only 7-8 weeks into the unleashing!

Summary

This note summarizes Michael Oliver’s view (guest on Metals & Miners) that we are in the early phase of a powerful precious‑metals bull cycle — especially for silver — following a technical breakout that began in November. Oliver calls the move an “unleashing,” believes most of the upside will play out into the summer, and emphasizes momentum/relative‑spread signals over raw price.

Central thesis

• We are in the early weeks of a new precious‑metals bull cycle, led by a technical breakout in silver relative to gold that began in November.
• Oliver characterizes the start of the move as an “unleashing” and expects much more upside ahead, with silver likely to dramatically outperform but not necessarily lead gold.

Silver: breakout and potential

• Silver has broken out of a multi‑decade basing pattern versus gold.
• Current silver/gold ratio noted ~2.1% (still cheap versus prior bull peaks of ~6.5% in 1979–80 and ~3.1% in 2010–11).
• Historically, such breakouts have preceded very fast, large gains (triples/quadruples in a few quarters in prior episodes).
• Oliver expects most of the major upside to unfold into the summer (June–July).
• Plausible price scenarios cited:
  • Silver into the low hundreds in a strong move.
  • In a stronger replay of prior dimensional moves, silver could reach mid‑hundreds (3–500 range).
• Caveat: short intraday/shorter‑term drops (the “jiggles”) should be expected as the move progresses.

Timing and indicators

• The silver vs gold breakout occurred in November.
• Oliver monitors monthly and weekly momentum and “clock” metrics derived from past breakouts.
• He expects a meaningful mid‑move pause or “jiggle” around late February to early/mid March, viewing that as a midpoint rather than the top.

Gold outlook

• Oliver expects gold to continue higher.
• He references a historical “eightfold” dimension from prior bear lows to bull highs and uses that heuristic to sketch a notional, illustrative target near $8,500 (not presented as a firm cap).
• Silver is expected to outperform gold on a percentage basis, though not necessarily lead the initial advance.

Miners

• Gold and silver miners have broken out in relative performance versus the S&P after an ~11‑year basing pattern.
• Indices like XAU divided by gold are breaking out (an ~8.7% move was noted), implying miners could materially outperform both gold and the broader equity market.
• Upcoming Q4 earnings reports may provide performance evidence that attracts more capital into miners.

Market structure and coordinated breakouts

• Multiple relative spreads broke out together:
  • Gold vs S&P
  • Silver vs S&P
  • Miners vs S&P
  • Silver vs gold
• Oliver interprets these coordinated spread breakouts as a clear technical signal that asset‑class flows have shifted toward the monetary/metals complex.

Dollar and bond market context

• U.S. dollar:
  • Long‑term momentum is broken.
  • The dollar sits on an important resistance/trendline (around the 97 area).
  • Continued dollar weakness would act as fuel for precious metals.
• Bond market:
  • T‑bonds/T‑notes and yields are vulnerable.
  • Central banks (including the Fed) have been buying bonds since November to steady the market.
  • If sellers break key technical supports in bonds despite central‑bank buying, a panic could follow — which Oliver expects would be strongly bullish for gold, silver, and miners.

Macro and monetary narrative

• Beyond industrial demand for silver (AI, solar, electronics), Oliver emphasizes the monetary case:
  • Silver is structurally under‑owned and under‑priced relative to gold.
  • The real value of fiat has been deteriorating (M2 expansion, central‑bank interventions).
  • Overvalued equities and shaky sovereign‑bond markets could reroute capital toward precious metals.
• Oliver sees the move as driven primarily by monetary re‑pricing and structural under‑ownership rather than transient market narratives.

Risk and positioning advice

• Expect sharp intraday and short‑term reversals; these pullbacks have been getting briefer over time.
• Oliver has been reducing leveraged positions and shifting to outright long bullion and miners.
• He recommends caution with leverage going into the expected mid‑move jiggle, and considering adding leverage more safely after that midpoint.
• Emphasizes being nimble and using momentum and relative‑spread signals rather than price alone to guide positioning.

Noise and narratives to ignore

• Many online voices are prematurely calling a top; historically, those consensus calls during the build have been wrong.
• Short‑term signals like Shanghai spot premiums and COMEX vault reports are described as sidelined phenomena — they come and go and are not the central story according to Oliver.

Practical notes and follow‑up

• Michael Oliver’s research firm: Momentum Structural Analysis (oliversa.com).
• Host (Gary Bone) points listeners to Metals & Miners’ Substack for follow‑up content and additional commentary.

Speakers

• Gary Bone — host, founder of Metals & Miners
• Michael Oliver — guest, founder of Momentum Structural Analysis