Summary of Let's say, hypothetically, war with Iran

The video discusses the complex geopolitical relationship between the United States, Iran, and Iraq, particularly in the context of oil production and foreign policy. It highlights the fragile state of Iraq's oil industry post-2003 invasion, which has been severely impacted by violence and sabotage, leading to a discouraging investment climate for multinational oil companies. Despite the initial belief that the invasion would benefit American oil interests, U.S. companies have largely been sidelined in Iraq's oil auctions, with contracts going to European, Russian, and Chinese firms instead.

Key Points

• Fragility of Iraq's Oil Sector: Attacks on infrastructure and violence have rendered Iraq's oil production unreliable, with major companies halting operations or diverting investments elsewhere. The anticipated economic recovery through oil exports has been stalled.
• Historical Context of U.S. Foreign Policy: The video traces the historical motivations behind U.S. military actions in the Middle East, suggesting that oil interests were not the primary drivers for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Instead, it argues that U.S. foreign policy has often been influenced more by political alliances and the interests of the Israel lobby.
• Iran's Position and U.S. Relations: The narrative outlines how U.S. policies towards Iran have evolved, particularly post-9/11, with a focus on regime change and military action. It notes that Iran had previously sought improved relations with the U.S. but faced increasing sanctions and military threats, particularly from the Israeli government and its supporters in the U.S.
• Consequences of Military Action: The video argues that aggressive U.S. policies have led to unintended negative outcomes, including the strengthening of Iranian influence in Iraq and the broader region. It suggests that military actions have not only cost lives but have also destabilized the Middle East and increased anti-American sentiment.
• Current Tensions and Future Outlook: The ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, particularly regarding nuclear capabilities and military actions, are highlighted as unresolved issues. The video concludes with a call for either diplomatic resolution or acknowledgment of the potential for military conflict.

Overall, the discussion emphasizes the intricate interplay of oil, foreign policy, and military action, raising questions about the effectiveness and consequences of the U.S. approach to Iran and Iraq.

Presenters/Contributors

• Gal Luft (Brookings Institute)
• John Mearsheimer
• Stephen Walt
• Muhammad Abbas
• Edgar Bronfman
• Kenneth Pollack
• James Baker
• Leon Panetta
• Seymour Hersh
• MJ Rosenberg
• Frank Sachek
• Matthew Zce
• Abraham Foxman
• Ehud Olmert
• Douglas Feith
• Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani
• Ariel Sharon
• Shimon Peres
• Dick Cheney
• John Edwards
• Various military officials and analysts

Notable Quotes

— 04:24 — « Critics said the 2003 US invasion of Iraq was driven by oil, but United States oil majors were largely absent from an Iraqi auction of oil deals snapped up instead by Russian, Chinese, and other firms. »

— 04:40 — « No one, even the United States, can steal the oil, whatever people think. »

— 07:46 — « It's not a question of whether Iraq's regime should be taken out, but when should it be taken out. »

— 10:30 — « History tells us that Big Oil never wanted sanctions on Iran, let alone war. »

— 32:44 — « Either the issue of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon is resolved diplomatically through negotiation or it's resolved through force, through war. »

Category

News and Commentary

Video