In This MARKET CRASH... 4 Stocks That Promoters Have Bought | Rahul Jain

Presenter / source

• Rahul Jain — SEBI-registered research analyst.
• Analysis based on insider‑trading filings, company quarterly results / con‑call commentary, annual reports and other public disclosures.
• Video recorded ~20 March 2026.

Methodology: interpreting promoter buying

Possible reasons promoters buy shares:

• Attractive valuation.
• Expected faster growth (capex or demand).
• Corporate restructuring (subsidiary stake moves).
• Defending price / supporting a falling stock.

Important checks when observing insider/promoter buys:

• Confirm instrument bought (equity vs debenture/bond). Promoter “buys” can be non‑equity.
• Check quantities and purchase price versus current market price.
• Compare valuations to historical metrics (10‑year median, lows, highs).
• Drill into recent quarterly numbers to understand one‑offs (provisions, labour‑code impacts).
• Review operational metrics (AUM growth, segment growth, deal pipeline) and management commentary.
• Assess macro and sector risks (liquidity, credit cost, war impacts).

Caution: promoter buying is a positive signal but not a guarantee — price may still fall. Do your own due diligence. Not a buy/sell recommendation.

Market / macro context

• Ongoing war (Middle East) as of March 2026 → headline market weakness and sectoral operational risks (energy, supply chains, retail exposure in the Middle East).
• Key macro risks for banks/NBFCs: tightening liquidity, rising credit costs, inflation — these can pressure financial‑sector earnings.
• Gold flows / global rates: higher US yields and dollar bond attractiveness can pull money away from gold, impacting jewellery retailers.

Stocks / instruments discussed

(Tickers not provided in transcript)

Bajaj Finance (NBFC)

• Insider detail:
  • Promoter purchases on 29 Dec 2025 — large market purchases (~900k shares reported).
  • Bajaj Life Insurance bought debentures (non‑equity) on 10 Mar 2026.
• Valuation metrics:
  • 10‑year median P/B ≈ 8.1; current P/B ≈ 5; lowest ~4.7 (Nov 2024). Cheaper than long‑run median but not at absolute low.
• Q3 (Dec 2025) headline numbers:
  • Net profit: 4,066 crore vs previous quarter 4,948 crore and Dec‑24 4,308 crore (headline decline).
  • Provisions ~1,406 crore in Q3 FY26; labour‑code impact ~265 crore.
  • Pre‑provision profit and PAT (pre‑provision) were strong: pre‑provision PAT grew ~23% YoY; headline PAT down ~6% after provisions.
• Operational metrics:
  • AUM growth healthy across most loan products (20–27% range).
  • Mortgages: ~30.7% of AUM; grew ~25%.
  • Captive 2/3‑wheeler finance declined ~57% but is small (~3.2% of AUM).
• Strategic / tech note:
  • Heavy AI adoption: ~20 million customer calls analysed, ~520k customers processed, ~100k new offers created (product/efficiency use case).
• Risks:
  • Market volatility (war), liquidity tightening, rising credit costs, possible further valuation/price fall.
  • Recommendation: read annual report and perform detailed diligence.

HCL Technologies (IT)

• Insider detail:
  • Promoter group (Vamasundri Investments) bought shares in March 2026 (examples: 17 Mar; reported buys include ~84k and “almost two lakh” shares).
• Deal pipeline / bookings:
  • Q3 FY26 net new bookings (TCV) = $3 billion — multi‑quarter high; +17% QoQ and +43% YoY.
  • Red flag: management growth guidance modest (4.75–5.25%); investors question conversion of pipeline into revenue.
• AI and revenue contribution:
  • Advanced AI services grew ~19.9%.
  • One large AI deal: 5‑year TCV ≈ $473 million.
  • HCL’s share of AI in pipeline estimated ~25–30% (higher percentage than some peers, though absolute base differs).
• M&A / spend:
  • Multiple acquisitions in recent quarters to buy AI / niche capabilities; inorganic spend noted.
• Valuation vs peers:
  • P/E ≈ 20.74 (HCL) vs Infosys ≈ 17.23 vs TCS ≈ 16.74 — HCL trading at a premium to major peers.
• Key questions / risks:
  • Pipeline conversion to revenue.
  • Valuation premium and effectiveness of inorganic spend.
  • Suitability depends on investor’s growth vs value preference and portfolio downside protection.

Jindal Stainless Limited (JSL — stainless steel)

• Insider detail:
  • JSL Overseas Holding bought shares repeatedly in late Feb / March 2026 (e.g., 269k shares on 17 Mar).
• Operational / war impact disclosure (13 Mar 2026):
  • Heavy dependency on industrial gases (propane, LPG, natural gas); supply disruption affected processes across plants and could force production halts if supplies are interrupted.
• Demand outlook:
  • Management noted healthy domestic demand across automotive, pipes & tubes, white goods, railways, metro projects.
• Valuation / profitability:
  • PE ≈ 19 (industry ≈ 19). PB ≈ 3.24 vs industry PB ≈ 1.48 (company higher).
  • PEG negative due to YoY profit decline.
• Sector notes and risks:
  • Metals are cyclical and highly sensitive to commodity prices, energy supply, and international demand.
  • Key operational risk: gas supply disruptions related to conflict.

Kalyan Jewellers (gold jewellery retail)

• Insider detail:
  • Promoter T.S. Kalyanaraman bought in February 2026 (multiple batches: 11 Feb, 13 Feb).
• Valuation history:
  • 10‑year median P/E ≈ 47.7; current P/E ≈ 33.3.
  • Peak P/E ~127.9 (Jan 2025); lowest ~18.8 (Aug 2022). Large historical P/E swings imply downside risk if valuations revert.
• Geographic exposure / revenue mix:
  • Middle East operations: ~38 showrooms; Middle East contributed ~12% of top line in FY25.
  • Management noted a strong Middle East quarter pre‑war; war (late Feb/Mar 2026) introduces immediate uncertainty for these revenues and for Dubai‑centric gold logistics.
• Financial trend (PAT progression cited):
  • PAT series across successive years (as quoted): ~224 cr → 432 cr → 596 cr → 714 cr → 1,128 cr.
  • Despite prior growth, macro uncertainty and valuation compression warrant caution.
• Risks:
  • Middle East war effects, shifts in global yields/inflation affecting gold demand, potential valuation re‑rating.
  • Suggested action: add to watchlist and monitor valuation reversion before acting.

Explicit recommendations, cautions and disclosures

This is not buy/sell financial advice — insights only. Read company filings, con‑call transcripts, annual reports and do your own research.

Practical investor cautions:

• Check instrument type (equity vs debt) when analysing promoter buys.
• Compare current price/valuation to historical medians, lows, and highs to assess downside room.
• Analyse causes of recent earnings changes (provisions, one‑offs) — not just headline PAT.
• Consider macro risks (war, liquidity, credit costs, yields) and portfolio downside protection before allocating.
• Avoid sharing stock picks without context (presenter discourages posting names without full analysis).

Other finance-related details called out

• Dates and timelines: video recorded ~20 Mar 2026. Promoter buys concentrated in Feb–Mar 2026 (and Dec 29, 2025 for Bajaj). Q3 FY26 results referenced (Oct–Dec 2025).
• Instruments noticed: equity shares, debentures (example: insurance arm bought debentures for Bajaj), deal TCVs, advanced AI services revenue contribution.
• Performance metrics highlighted: net profits, provisions, AUM growth by business, P/B and P/E comparisons, TCV and net new bookings, QoQ and YoY growth rates.

Sources cited by presenter

• Insider trading filings / exchange disclosures.
• Company quarterly results and con‑call summaries (Q3 FY26 where quoted).
• Annual reports.
• Management commentary and investor Q&A.
• Presenter: Rahul Jain, SEBI‑registered research analyst.

(Disclosure reiterated by presenter: not financial advice / not a buy recommendation.)