Summary of "A NEW World Order: So Why Isn’t Oil EXPLODING?! | Doomberg"
A NEW World Order: So Why Isn’t Oil EXPLODING?! | Doomberg
Key Finance-Specific Content Summary
Oil & Gas Markets and Geopolitical Context
- Event: In early 2026, the US conducted a capture/kidnapping operation of Venezuelan President Maduro, described as a Trump-style “shock and awe” move.
- Market Reaction: Despite the geopolitical shock, oil prices barely moved.
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Reasons for muted oil market reaction:
- Venezuelan oil production had already collapsed by approximately 75% from its peak, currently producing around 800,000–900,000 barrels/day, with about 600,000 barrels/day exported.
- Two-thirds of Venezuelan oil exports go to China, one-third to the US, with some shipments to Cuba.
- China had been stockpiling an extra 1 million barrels/day throughout 2025.
- Global oil markets remain well supplied and flexible.
- A recent US cold snap temporarily raised natural gas prices but did not significantly impact oil.
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Long-Term Outlook on Venezuelan Oil:
- Venezuela holds the world’s largest hydrocarbon reserves.
- There is potential to quickly unlock 1,200 capped wells if sanctions are lifted and infrastructure is refurbished.
- Estimated investment to unlock Venezuelan oil is in the tens of billions USD, manageable for major oil companies.
- Unlocking this supply would increase global oil availability, which is bearish for oil prices in the long term.
- Guyana’s offshore oil discovery, led by ExxonMobil, Chevron, and CNOC, is producing nearly 1 million barrels/day, adding regional supply.
- Geopolitical tensions between Venezuela and Guyana over territorial claims remain but have stabilized since Maduro’s capture.
China and Geopolitical Energy Strategy
- China imports two-thirds of Venezuelan oil exports.
- There is speculation about a grand geopolitical deal involving Putin, Xi, and Trump, with territorial concessions: Putin retains Ukraine, Xi gains Taiwan, and the US dominates the Western Hemisphere.
- China is a minority partner in Guyana oil projects and generally cooperates well with US supermajors despite geopolitical tensions.
- Corporate interests often transcend geopolitical conflicts; companies like Exxon and Chevron maintain partnerships with Chinese and Russian entities.
Middle East and Iran
- Iran’s regime change operation failed; protests were suppressed through internet shutdowns and Starlink satellite jamming.
- The US is likely short on air defense missiles and hesitant to attack Iran due to risks to Israel.
- Markets show no signs of pricing in an imminent Middle East conflict.
- Iran’s ability to shut down Starlink suggests advanced electronic warfare capabilities, possibly aided by Russia and China.
- The geopolitical situation remains calm but complex; markets remain cautious but unperturbed.
The Board of Peace and Global Geopolitics
- The Board of Peace is presented as a potential rival to the United Nations.
- It is seen as part of Trump’s strategy to build global alliances outside the traditional Atlanticist/globalist order.
- The UK’s Labour leader Keir Starmer and major European powers oppose the Board, largely due to Putin’s involvement.
- Trump’s approach is disruptive but effective in shifting geopolitical narratives and forcing Europe to “wake up” on energy and defense issues.
- Europe’s energy vulnerability was highlighted by Mark Carney’s speech: Europe produces only 5 exajoules of hydrocarbons but consumes 38, making it highly dependent.
- Trump’s rhetoric (e.g., Greenland “invasion”) is viewed as a tactic to create media frenzy and push strategic objectives like increasing US military presence in Greenland to counter China and Russia.
Market and Investment Themes
- The Western Hemisphere already outproduces the Middle East in oil and natural gas, with potential for 10 million barrels/day incremental oil production.
- Energy independence and security are becoming central themes for Europe and the US.
- Short-term watch: US energy prices affected by cold snap.
- Longer-term focus: Venezuela’s oil potential and the geopolitical trade war between China and the US.
- The Ukraine war’s resolution remains uncertain and is a key geopolitical risk factor.
Substack and Financial Media Context
- Doomberg is a top Substack finance writer, recently surpassed by Michael Burry.
- Michael Burry closed his hedge fund and now manages his own money, focusing on his Substack.
- Doomberg views Burry’s presence positively, expecting it to bring more readers to the platform, which is bullish for their own business.
- Doomberg is launching a book and expanding content, including webinars on Venezuela oil and copper markets.
Mentioned Tickers, Assets, and Instruments
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Oil:
- Venezuelan crude (~600,000 barrels/day exports)
- Guyana offshore oil (~1 million barrels/day)
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Companies:
- ExxonMobil
- Chevron
- CNOC (China National Offshore Oil Corporation)
- Hess (acquired by Chevron)
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Commodities:
- Oil
- Natural gas
- Copper (upcoming webinar topic)
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Other:
- Starlink (SpaceX satellite internet system, relevant in Iran context)
Methodologies / Frameworks
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Geopolitical Risk Assessment:
- Analyze regime change operations and their impact on oil supply.
- Monitor production capacity vs. export capacity and sanctions impact.
- Consider corporate partnerships that may transcend national conflicts.
- Use market pricing and geopolitical “pair trades” as indicators of crisis expectations.
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Energy Market Outlook:
- Evaluate supply flexibility and stockpiles (e.g., China’s oil stockpiling).
- Assess infrastructure refurbishment potential and capital expenditure scale.
- Watch for geopolitical developments affecting key producing regions.
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Media and Rhetoric as Market Signals:
- Understand political rhetoric (e.g., Trump’s tactics) as distractions or strategic moves.
- Monitor speeches by influential figures (e.g., Mark Carney) for shifts in policy or sentiment.
Key Numbers and Timelines
- Venezuela oil production down 75% from peak.
- Venezuela exports approximately 600,000 barrels/day (two-thirds to China, one-third to US).
- Guyana offshore oil production around 1 million barrels/day.
- Investment needed to unlock Venezuelan oil: tens of billions USD.
- US cold snap causing short-term natural gas price spikes.
- Doomberg’s Substack sister publication approaching 5,000 subscribers.
- Book deal underway, expected to take about a year.
Explicit Recommendations / Cautions
- Long-term bearish outlook on oil prices due to potential Venezuelan supply unlocking.
- Caution on geopolitical risk in the Middle East; markets currently calm but situation complex.
- Investors should watch US-China trade relations, Venezuela’s political evolution, European energy policy, and Ukraine conflict developments.
- Read beyond mainstream media for nuanced intelligence, especially on the Middle East and Iran.
- Recognize that corporate energy interests often mitigate geopolitical risks.
Disclaimers
This discussion is not financial advice. Some geopolitical interpretations are speculative and based on mental models. AI-generated or propaganda content should be treated with caution.
Presenters / Sources
- Host: Kai (surname not provided)
- Guest: Doomberg (top three finance Substack writer, oil and gas specialist)
- Mentioned:
- Michael Burry (finance personality, Substack writer)
- Mark Carney (former Bank of England governor)
- Howard Lutnik (Bloomberg)
- Byron York (Fox News)
- Keir Starmer (UK Labour leader)
- Trump (former US President)
- Putin (Russian President)
- Xi Jinping (Chinese President)
Summary
The video provides an in-depth discussion on why the oil market did not react strongly to the US capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, highlighting Venezuela’s diminished production and China’s stockpiling. It explores the long-term bearish implications for oil prices if Venezuelan supply is unlocked. The geopolitical interplay between the US, China, Russia, and Europe is analyzed, including the role of corporate partnerships in energy projects. The situation in Iran and the Middle East is assessed as stable for now, with no imminent military conflict priced in by markets. The Board of Peace is discussed as a potential new geopolitical institution challenging the UN, linked to Trump’s global strategy. The video also touches on financial media dynamics with Michael Burry’s rise on Substack and Doomberg’s outlook for 2026 market themes.
Category
Finance
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