Summary of ""La géopolitique mondiale a complètement changé", Alain Juillet"

Main points

The geopolitical center of gravity has moved to Asia. The post‑1945, Western‑dominated international order is breaking down.
By purchasing‑power parity (PPP) the BRICS now outweigh the G7, and China is on track to be the leading power by 2050.
Evidence cited:
- BRICS GDP > G7 (PPP).
- Four of the world’s top five banks are Chinese (only JPMorgan remains from the U.S.).

The era in which international law, morality and multilateral rules (largely built by the 1945 victors) structured relations is losing legitimacy.
Many countries view those institutions as biased, accuse the West of double standards, and increasingly reject normative imposition.

Contemporary competition is described as continuous “hybrid warfare” in which everything can be used as a weapon.
Quote-style summary: military, information, legal, technological, monetary and economic tools are all instruments of state competition.
The distinction between peacetime and wartime is increasingly obsolete; states now pursue national interest, spheres of influence and balance‑of‑power politics rather than value‑driven consensus.

Trump is portrayed as pursuing an imperial, transactional approach focused on securing a U.S. sphere of influence rather than global leadership through consensus.
Tactics and examples:
- Attempts to acquire strategic territory (e.g., Greenland).
- Interventions to control resources (reference to Venezuela).
- Technology lockdowns (chips, AI).
- Reindustrialization via tariffs.
- Pressure on monetary systems (SWIFT/dollar).
The dollar’s dominance is under stress as some countries diversify and explore alternatives, including references to crypto/Bitcoin‑linked mechanisms.

China is depicted as patient, pragmatic and long‑term focused — likened to a Go player who surrounds rather than attacks directly.
Examples of strengths:
- Large engineering output (claim cited: ~1 million engineers/year vs. high Western output in law/standards professions).
- Infrastructure and energy initiatives (e.g., pipelines and overland energy routes such as Yamal supplying China).
- Heavy investment in demographics, technology and patents.
China’s approach emphasizes gradual influence and deep economic integration.

Europe is politically fragmented and lacks cohesion, with regulatory inflation that can hamper competitiveness (a “standards‑making machine”).
Policy mistakes—such as prolonged hostility to nuclear power—have increased energy dependence on gas and exposed Europe to rising energy costs.
Innovation in Europe lags behind China and the U.S., with insufficient investment and funding.

Global growth will increasingly occur outside Europe; without response, Europe risks relative decline.
Recommended strategic responses:
1. Seek growth markets abroad.
2. Foster and finance domestic innovation.
3. Adapt to a world where hard power and national interest play larger roles.
Decline is not inevitable but requires pragmatic policy change and prioritization.