Summary of "Piero Scaruffi on the Russian invasion of Ukraine"
Commentary on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine by Piero Scaruffi
Piero Scaruffi offers a detailed and nuanced analysis of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, addressing historical, political, and strategic questions surrounding the conflict. His commentary explores the background, motivations, and broader implications of the war.
Historical Context of Ukraine and Russia
- Putin’s claim that Ukraine was “never a country” has some historical basis but is misleading. Ukraine’s origins trace back to the medieval kingdom of Kiev, a precursor to Russia.
- Over centuries, Ukraine was divided and controlled by various powers including Lithuania, Poland, Austria, and Russia.
- Ukraine briefly existed as an independent state after World War I amid chaos but was eventually absorbed into the Soviet Union.
- The concept of a country is a modern political construct; many nations formed after the dissolution of empires (e.g., Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, Pakistan) despite no prior independent existence.
- Putin’s argument opposes the disintegration of multi-ethnic empires and challenges the right of ethnic groups to self-determination.
Putin’s Misunderstanding and Actions
- Putin underestimated Ukrainian national identity, exemplified by his 2012 claim that Russians and Ukrainians are “the same people,” which alienated many Ukrainians.
- The 2014 Ukrainian revolution ousted the pro-Russian president, prompting Putin to annex Crimea and support separatists in Donbas. This removed millions of pro-Russian voters from Ukraine, ensuring future elections would not favor Russia.
- The 2022 invasion was likely a miscalculation; Putin may have expected a quick surrender and a welcoming attitude from Ukrainians, which did not occur.
Crimea and Territorial Claims
- Crimea was part of Russia from 1783 until Khrushchev transferred it to Ukraine in 1954.
- Its population is mostly ethnic Russian due to historical colonization and Stalin’s deportations of Crimean Tatars.
- Scaruffi suggests Ukraine might be better off without Crimea, as the region exacerbates internal divisions between the pro-European west and pro-Russian east.
- Putin’s logic on Crimea could backfire by encouraging other territorial claims, such as:
- Karelia to Finland
- Kuril Islands to Japan
- Kaliningrad to Germany
2014 Revolution and NATO Expansion
- The 2014 revolution was not a coup but a popular uprising followed by parliamentary action, supported by many Russian-speaking Ukrainians.
- NATO verbally promised not to expand eastward in 1990 but later admitted several Eastern European countries, breaking informal assurances.
- Ukraine was not consulted in these negotiations and is not bound by them; its right to choose alliances is legitimate.
- Putin’s claim that NATO missiles near Russia justify invasion is flawed; Russia also deploys missiles near NATO borders, and missile range negates proximity concerns.
Russia-West Relations and Strategic Issues
- Russia views Europe as a hostage to ensure its own security, holding the threat of nuclear and conventional retaliation.
- None of Russia’s neighbors want to be ruled by Russia, unlike how many tolerate U.S. influence.
- Russia’s economy is smaller than many European countries, yet it sustains a large military funded largely by energy exports to Europe.
- Europe’s dependence on Russian energy and China for supplies—highlighted by COVID-19 and the war—is a wake-up call for diversification and reconsideration of energy policies.
Western Response and Sanctions
- The West has imposed unprecedented global sanctions on Russia, a form of economic warfare Scaruffi terms “conocide” (killing an economy).
- However, cultural boycotts against Russian artists and institutions are misguided and unfair to the Russian people and culture.
- Potential shifts in global oil markets (e.g., Iran and Venezuela) could reduce Russia’s leverage.
China’s Role and Long-Term Implications
- China’s stance is ambiguous; it benefits economically from Russia’s dependence but may not fully support Russia’s aggressive moves.
- Russia risks becoming a client state of China, especially in Siberia and Central Asia.
- There is a possibility that a future Russia-West alliance could counterbalance China, complicating global geopolitics.
Putin’s Leadership and Mental State
- Putin is increasingly isolated and possibly paranoid, with rumors of erratic behavior and fear of assassination.
- The invasion may be driven by his desire to stop “color revolutions” threatening his regime’s survival.
- Putin’s Cold War mindset conflicts with modern realities, and younger Russian leaders may seek rapprochement with the West.
Historical Patterns and Colonial Legacy
- Russia’s behavior is consistent with its history as a colonial empire, resisting disintegration unlike other European empires.
- The conflict reflects a chronic European problem of empire and national identity unresolved by the Cold War’s end.
Nuclear Weapons and Global Security
- Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in 1991 but was invaded by a nuclear power, reinforcing the idea that nuclear deterrence prevents invasions.
- This dynamic may encourage nuclear proliferation worldwide, raising global security risks.
Final Thoughts
- The war introduces new forms of conflict, including unprecedented economic sanctions.
- The situation remains unpredictable, with serious risks of escalation but also opportunities for future reconciliation.
- Scaruffi warns against conflating Putin’s regime with the Russian people and culture.
- The invasion’s timing may relate to Putin losing key allies (Trump, pro-Russian Ukrainian oligarchs), changes in European leadership, and miscalculations about Western resolve.
Presenters/Contributors
- Piero Scaruffi
Category
News and Commentary
