Summary of "জুন ক্লোজিং কোম্পানির ‘ডিভিডেন্ট মৌসুম’: কেমন যাবে শেয়ারবাজার? | The Business Standard"
Summary of Financial Strategies, Market Analyses, and Business Trends
Dividend Season Outlook:
- Dividend season is approaching in October for companies with June closings.
- Despite political instability, protests, and government collapse since June, companies are expected to pay good dividends, roughly the same or slightly better than before.
- Manufacturing sectors like pharmaceuticals, paints, and chemicals remain relatively stable due to consistent demand, although supply chain disruptions and increased costs (raw materials, gas crisis, higher bank loan rates) pose challenges.
- Smaller companies and some sectors (e.g., internet services) experienced slowdowns but are expected to recover gradually.
- Investors should keep expectations moderate as dividends reflect past performance; stock prices are more influenced by future outlooks than current dividends.
Market Behavior and Investor Sentiment:
- Market volume has decreased recently, with some indices falling but recovering slightly towards the end of the week.
- Dividend announcements tend to create short-term market momentum, but price fluctuations depend more on future prospects than dividend amounts.
- Political stability post-election is crucial for market confidence and investment growth.
- Increasing foreign remittances and export growth support positive market flow.
Banking Sector Crisis Impact:
- Closure and merger of five small banks have caused investor concern and market slowdown.
- Share prices of these banks dropped significantly, causing losses to ordinary and institutional shareholders.
- Audited financial reports of these banks were misleading, creating distrust among investors.
- There is a call for better depositor protection and scrutiny of deposits to distinguish ordinary from extraordinary deposits.
- Asset recovery and transparency are essential to ensure fairness to shareholders and maintain market confidence.
- Investor education is critical as many investors took risks despite warnings about weak banks, often driven by speculative returns.
Financial Reporting and Market Regulation:
- Concerns over manipulation and reliability of audited financial reports; some reports have been inconsistent or unreliable.
- The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) acts as a self-regulator with limited legal powers; serious audit fraud cases must be reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
- Recent regulatory changes have given DSE more supervisory power, but manpower and legal limitations persist.
- The SEC is gradually returning some regulatory responsibilities to DSE to improve governance and oversight.
Listing of New Companies:
- Efforts are ongoing to bring fundamentally strong new companies, including multinational corporations (MNCs), to the market.
- Listing procedures are lengthy (up to two years), partly due to companies’ lack of readiness and documentation.
- Low market liquidity and trading volumes reduce interest in listing new companies.
- Tax incentives and hassle reduction are needed to encourage more listings.
Investor Guidance:
- Investors should critically evaluate audited reports by checking the credibility of auditors and their past performance.
- Avoid over-reliance on financial reports alone; consider market conditions and future outlook.
- Maintain realistic expectations about dividends and stock price movements.
- Understand that speculation plays a role in stock price volatility, but fundamentals and governance matter for long-term investment.
Methodology / Step-by-Step Guide for Investors (Implied from Discussion)
- Before investing, review the company’s dividend history and the sector’s stability.
- Examine the credibility and track record of auditors who report the company’s financials.
- Analyze not only current financial reports but also previous reports for consistency.
- Consider macroeconomic factors such as political stability, export growth, remittance inflows, and interest rate trends.
- Be cautious of speculative price increases, especially in companies with financial irregularities or poor governance.
- Stay informed about regulatory changes and market developments.
- Diversify investments and avoid overexposure to risky sectors like weak banks.
- Keep expectations realistic, focusing on long-term prospects rather than short-term gains.
Presenters / Sources
- Anisur Rahman – Host of TVS Markets
- Shakil Rizbi – Shareholder Director, Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE)
The discussion was featured on TVS Markets, a program by The Business Standard.
Category
Business and Finance