Summary of "Daily Market Recap - Feb 11, 2026 - Breadth is Expanding, but Markets Still Look Fragile"
High-level market takeaways
- Breadth is expanding beneath a somewhat fragile index picture: the S&P 500 has been grinding sideways/pulling back while participation from small- and mid-caps and non-mega-cap sectors is picking up.
- Caution vs constructive signal:
- Caution: rotation into smaller / mid-cap names after a concentrated mega-cap run can be a late-cycle characteristic.
- Constructive: historically, after similar breadth-expansion signals the S&P has tended to perform well — higher 3 weeks later 84% of the time and higher 12 months later 94% of the time; 12‑month median gain ≈ 16.96%. The path can be volatile: average 3‑month max drawdown after similar signals > 8%.
- Macro snapshot: stronger-than-expected US jobs report (headline beat ~0.1% over estimates) prompted risk-asset selling because it reduces near-term urgency for Fed rate cuts. The 10‑yr Treasury yield didn’t fully confirm the jobs strength (no big spike), creating a cross-market divergence to watch.
- Near-term seasonality / path: expect choppy action through Q1 with potential for stronger conditions after Q1. The CPI print on Friday is likely to inject more volatility.
Assets, tickers and sectors mentioned
- Indices / futures: S&P 500, ES1 (E‑mini S&P), NASDAQ / NQ (E‑mini Nasdaq)
- “Magnificent 7”: Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet/Google, Meta, Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA)
- ETFs / sector plays: IGV (software ETF), OIH (oil services ETF)
- Energy / oil: OXY (Occidental Petroleum), CVE (Cenovus Energy)
- Other equities called out: HOOD (Robinhood), Unity Software, Celsius, Palantir, ALAB, FCX (Freeport‑McMoRan), CGNX (Cognex), Marvell (referred to as “Marvel”), ERRO
- Commodities / FX / crypto: crude oil, gold, silver, US dollar (USD), Bitcoin (BTC)
- Corporate/events: NBIS (earnings before open), COIN (Coinbase — earnings after close), Rivian (RIVN), Celsius earnings (Mar 4) and other upcoming results
- People referenced: Kevin Walsh (Fed‑related hawkishness referenced)
Key technical levels, price targets and levels called out
Index technicals
- S&P 500: overhead hurdle noted at 7,000. Indices printing lower daily highs vs Feb 2 / Jan 28 highs (tactical bearish structure).
- NASDAQ / NQ: resistance / rejection at ~25,360 (also cited 25,333 on weekly). Rejection suggests potential additional corrective swings for mega‑caps.
“Magnificent 7” highlights
- Tesla: resistance / trendline ~ $440.
- Alphabet/Google: potential pullback target as low as $270; alert at $294.
- Meta: trading ~ $660–$670 area; under the 200‑day MA, indecisive.
- Amazon: downside target down to $177 from a symmetrical triangle breakdown.
- Microsoft: support area down to $350 cited as “good value”; key multi‑month trend line (since 2022) important to hold.
- Apple: bounced strongly and is now into resistance after a major prior sell‑off.
- Nvidia: resistance ~ $190; a break above would likely re‑energize semiconductors and the NASDAQ.
Dollar / commodities
- USD: recently weak despite stronger jobs print; long multi‑year trendline support referenced (~15‑year trendline).
- Gold & silver: drifting up as the dollar drops (5‑day drift noted).
- Oil: strong and “poised to break out”; OIH and OXY highlighted as trade ideas.
Selected individual-stock specifics
- Unity Software
- Management said ~70% growth over last 12 months; caution about Q1 ad seasonality.
- Presenter’s personal average cost basis ~ $24.
- Support and falling‑wedge breakout held; break below ~ $15.50 would invalidate the thesis.
- HOOD (Robinhood)
- Big drop on earnings; gap‑up resistance areas at $85 and $100.
- Celsius
- Earnings scheduled Mar 4; bounced off 50% Fib level; alert at $44.
- Presenter wants deeper oversold RSI before considering entry.
- Palantir
- Watch ~ $118 as a layering/entry zone; head & shoulders target ~ $83; 50% Fib at $105.
- ALAB
- Earnings‑induced volatility; limit order at $143 filled near $141.57.
- Possible additional buy zone near $137; noted 26% intraday drop from highs and prior ~40% run.
- CVE (Cenovus Energy)
- Breakout with cup‑and‑handle; price targets at $38 and $43.
- Caution: breakout lacked daily volume follow‑through.
- FCX (Freeport‑McMoRan)
- Bounced off support at $58; up ~12% recently.
- CGNX (Cognex)
- Reported blowout (beat by ~22%); after‑hours spike ~+26% to ~$54 on breakout.
- Marvell (referred to as “Marvel”)
- Alert zone at $79; watching for a 4th‑time breakout of a symmetrical triangle.
- ERRO
- Copper‑adjacent play; finding daily / 4‑hour support and oversold readings; previously hit price target.
Bitcoin technicals
- Key support / levels:
- 66k ≈ 50% retracement level from the recent high/low.
- Overhead trendline ≈ 68.7k.
- Major hurdle for meaningful recovery ≈ 71k.
- Risk: daily closes below 66k could target 60k or the 58k lows.
Methodology, frameworks and checklist
- Breadth‑expansion interpretation (stepwise):
- Identify when the index grinds or falls while a greater number of constituents advance than decline → breadth expansion.
- Interpret context: rotation away from mega‑caps into small/mid after a concentrated multi‑year run → possible late‑cycle rotation (caution).
- Combine with historical probabilities (3‑week / 12‑month outcomes) to form medium‑term bias.
- Expect a non‑linear path and plan for volatility (average 3‑month drawdown > 8%).
- Technical checklist (used repeatedly):
- Watch for lower daily highs and trendline rejections.
- Use anchored VWAPs, confluence model “clouds”, 200‑day MA, multi‑year trend lines, and RSI/mean‑reversion signals.
- Confirm across price action, volume, and multiple timeframes (4‑hr, daily, weekly).
- Prefer “buy the recovery” (enter on signs of mean‑reversion / relief) over trying to catch exact bottoms.
- Event‑driven risk posture:
- Pay special attention to jobs reports, CPI, and the earnings schedule for short‑term volatility.
Risk management & behavioral notes
- Explicit cautions:
- Market still looks fragile despite breadth expansion; multiple charts indicate potential for further correction.
- Historical follow‑throughs are constructive but the near‑term path can include ~8% drawdowns.
- Avoid chasing bottoms — prefer buying the recovery to reduce the risk of being too early.
- Use technical invalidation points (e.g., Unity below ~$15.50) to trigger thesis reassessment.
- Volatility & options:
- Names like ALAB present elevated volatility and attractive option premium opportunities, but carry higher risk.
Performance metrics / historical stats reiterated
- After similar breadth‑expansion signals:
- S&P higher in 84% of cases at 3 weeks.
- S&P higher in 94% of cases at 12 months.
- 12‑month median gain ≈ 16.96% (confluence with other studies in the 16–18% range).
- Average 3‑month max drawdown following similar signals > 8%.
Market calendar / catalysts
- Near‑term:
- US CPI on Friday (expected to increase volatility).
- Important earnings: NBIS (before open), COIN (after close), Rivian (RIVN), Celsius (Mar 4), and others across the next sessions.
Explicit recommendations / cautions from the presenter
- Be ready for possible additional downside / volatility and prepare to capitalize on deeper pullbacks.
- Prefer buying on confirmed recovery (technical reset / mean‑reversion) rather than trying to nail exact lows.
- Watch the technical levels listed above: S&P 7,000 hurdle; NASDAQ 25,360; Bitcoin 66k / 71k; and individual stock support/resistance.
- Treat the strong jobs report with caution given cross‑market divergence (stocks down while bonds didn’t confirm strongly).
This isn’t financial advice. Past results are not indicative of future performance. Do your own research.
Presenter / source
- Tom — host of “The Trading Apologies” (daily market recap video).
If you want, I can produce a one‑page watchlist with exact levels to monitor (entry zones, stops, targets) for the key tickers mentioned.
Category
Finance
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