Summary of "Будет ли новая мобилизация | Аргументы «за» и «против» (English subtitles) @Max_Katz"
The video discusses the possibility of a new Russian military mobilization amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, presenting arguments both for and against such a call-up.
Context and Current Situation:
- Russian generals acknowledge that current manpower is insufficient to maintain the offensive, especially if the army fails to advance significantly by year-end.
- The ongoing offensive has incurred heavy casualties, and current recruitment efforts—largely relying on paid recruits from marginalized social groups—are barely offsetting losses.
- Many mobilized soldiers from the 2022 call-up have been in combat for nearly three years, leading to physical and mental exhaustion.
- The quality and combat readiness of new recruits are questionable, as many are drawn from fringe elements of society with poor health or substance abuse issues.
- Despite Kremlin propaganda and initial optimism, the offensive has largely stalled with no major territorial gains, notably the capture of the Donetsk region remains distant.
Insights on Putin’s Strategy and International Dynamics:
- Leaked and rumored information suggests Putin aimed for a major victory by early September 2023 to bolster his image and leverage in peace talks, although the speaker doubts he ever seriously sought peace.
- Putin’s goal appears to be demonstrating inevitable victory to intimidate both Ukraine and international backers like the U.S., especially former President Trump, who allegedly encouraged Putin’s offensive.
- The war effort has been marketed domestically with promises of a swift end, which helped recruit tens of thousands, but these narratives are now losing credibility.
Arguments For a New Mobilization:
- Manpower Needs: Current recruitment methods are insufficient to meet military ambitions; a large-scale call-up would provide a fresh and more reliable pool of soldiers.
- Diminishing Returns of Paid Recruits: The market for high-paying contracts is saturating, and future recruitment will be harder and more expensive.
- Quality of Troops: A formal mobilization could allow for better selection criteria, at least initially, improving combat effectiveness.
- Cost Efficiency: Mobilized soldiers are cheaper than contract recruits, making a new call-up economically sensible.
- Administrative Preparedness: The government has digitized conscription and closed loopholes, enabling a rapid, possibly quiet, mobilization without public announcement.
Arguments Against a New Mobilization:
- Political Timing: With federal elections approaching in mid-2026, the Kremlin is wary of triggering public panic and dissatisfaction by initiating a new call-up too close to the campaign.
- Public Sentiment: The population is already strained by war, economic hardship, censorship, and social pressures; a new mobilization could provoke unrest or erode support.
- Risk to Regime Stability: The ruling elite prioritizes maintaining power and controlling the political narrative; mass mobilization could jeopardize this by increasing public fear and opposition.
- Electoral Considerations: The ruling party needs to manage its image and voter turnout carefully; mobilization-induced fear could backfire politically.
Conclusion:
- Militarily, a new mobilization is necessary and feasible, with legal and bureaucratic frameworks in place.
- Politically, the Kremlin is likely to delay any new call-up until well before the 2026 elections to avoid destabilizing the regime.
- If a new mobilization does not occur soon, it probably will not happen until late 2025 or fall 2026.
- Meanwhile, the war is expected to continue with current manpower strategies, likely resulting in prolonged stalemate and attrition.
Presenter/Contributor:
Category
News and Commentary
