Steve Barton: Gold, Silver, Uranium, Oil — What I'm Buying and Selling

High-level theme

Steve Barton (technical/chart analyst and host of “In It to Win It”) argues there is a rotation opportunity: trim/harvest profits from the recent oil/energy rally and redeploy into gold, silver, uranium and select nickel/copper miners. He weighs chart signals (he’s a chartist) against bullish, war-driven fundamentals (which can conflict, especially for oil).

Tactical emphasis:

Use the rising 200-day moving average as the primary buy/pullback reference, harvest option premium (covered calls) on overheated positions, and scale in/out (buy on hated pullbacks, trim on rallies).

Assets, tickers and instruments mentioned

• Commodities / futures:
  • Gold (spot & futures)
  • Silver (spot)
  • Uranium (spot and term contracts)
  • Oil (WTI and Brent)
  • Nickel (LME per-ton price)
  • Diesel, sulfuric acid (input for some mining processes)
• ETFs, trusts, indices, companies:
  • XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF)
  • Exxon Mobil
  • GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF)
  • Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT / “Sprott”)
  • URMM (uranium-miner basket/ETF)
  • Centaurus Metals (nickel sulfide developer)
  • Glencore (referenced as partner/financier)
  • Magnum Mining (junior with nickel/PGMs/copper)
  • S&P 500 (mentioned as falling, driving margin selling)
• Other instruments / platforms:
  • LME nickel prices
  • TradingView (charting)
  • Covered calls / options

Methodology and portfolio rules (chartist framework)

• Primary technical rule
  • Use the rising 200-day moving average as the main buy zone for cyclical/bull-market assets. Wait for pullbacks to that line to add capital.
• Entry sizing / levels (visual red / yellow / green)
  • Place staggered limit buys: “red” (initial), “yellow” (add on deeper dip), “green” (final/floor allocation).
• Option income
  • Sell covered calls on fast-running positions to collect premium and trim risk; roll calls as needed.
• Rotation logic
  • Trim/harvest profits from overbought sectors (e.g., energy), redeploy into assets near/supporting the 200-DMA or with attractive fundamentals (gold, silver, uranium, selected miners).
• Risk control
  • Scale into cyclical positions and trim on rallies. Use support/resistance and “close above” confirmations for trend changes.
• Pattern/probability mindset
  • Favor probabilities over certainties (for example, bullish pennants/flags have historically high win rates in his view).

Key numbers, levels, timelines and probabilities

Oil

• WTI: chart “topping tail” peaked around ~$120/bbl; chartist view is bearish until a higher close above that peak.
• Brent: key level ~ $114 — needs a close above $114 to turn bullish on charts.
• XLE: referenced as having 14 consecutive weekly gains; cited that +40% in oil stocks over ~3 months is extreme.

Gold

• 200-day moving average touch around $4,100 (futures reference).
• Short-term trading-band probabilities (next-week view):
  • 70%: trade between $4,350 and $4,800 (bias to upside).
  • 10%: break above $4,800.
  • 20%: break below $4,300.
• Intermediate resistance / order concentration around $4,650.
• Macro note: U.S. debt cited as over $39 trillion; fiscal/monetary backdrop viewed as supportive.
• RSI examples flagged as extreme (e.g., RSI ~84) — use as trimming signal.

Gold miners (GDX)

• Suggested buy-more levels:
  • Intermediate buy ~ $77.
  • Floor / deeper buy ~ $68.75.
• GDX cited as down ~26% from its high.

Silver

• Rising 200-day MA ~ $57.60 (support).
• Preferred “back-up-the-truck” level ~ $54.
• Possible lower buffer if broken: ~$48.
• Near-term resistance: ~$72, then $76–$78.

Uranium

• Spot ~ $83.90/lb.
• Term-contract pricing ranged roughly $90–$120/lb (multi-year deals).
• Sprott Physical Uranium Trust holds an estimated ~80 million pounds off-market (structural bid).
• Technicals: SPUT / uranium miners around the rising 200-day MA; double-bottom noted on a miners ETF (URMM).
• Support for URMM/miners: ~$55, stronger at ~$50.
• Supply-risk catalyst: sulfuric acid disruptions (shipping through Strait of Hormuz) could cut mining output.

Nickel

• LME per-ton support cited ~ 16,500 (per ton).
• Indonesia supplies ~65% of global nickel; policy/production changes there can tighten supply.
• Preference for nickel-sulfide projects (less sulfuric-acid intensive) and mines in friendly jurisdictions.
• Company references:
  • Centaurus Metals (large nickel sulfide deposit; financing referenced: ~$450m from a Glencore-like partner + ~$190m bank financing).
  • Magnum Mining (CEO notes pivot from copper to nickel in ~2–3 months).

Other timing / behavioral notes

• Gold/silver can run into events and sometimes sell off after the initial outcome due to margin selling and profit taking.
• Uranium and nickel are cyclical — buy when “everyone hates it” and trim on rallies.

Explicit recommendations and tactical calls

• Oil / energy stocks
  • Trim positions and/or sell covered calls to harvest premium and reduce tail risk; charts look stretched even if fundamentals are bullish.
  • You do not need to sell everything — use covered calls / rolling to generate income while retaining exposure.
• Gold & Silver
  • Remain bullish in the broader bull market; buy on pullbacks to the rising 200-day moving average.
  • Expect a bounce and likely a retest of the 200-DMA — use the retest as a buying opportunity.
  • Short-term trading band for gold: $4,350–$4,800 (70% probability).
• Gold miners (GDX)
  • Begin allocating now; add more on dips to ~$77, then more heavily near ~$68.75.
• Uranium
  • Favor physical exposure (Sprott Physical Uranium Trust) and uranium miners/ETFs that are at or near the 200-day MA — considered a buying opportunity.
  • Rationale: term-contracts above spot, supply constraints, and long lead times for nuclear fuel.
• Nickel / miners
  • Consider nickel-sulfide projects and developers in friendly jurisdictions (examples: Centaurus Metals; Magnum Mining).
  • Structural risks (Indonesia supply policy) could be bullish for nickel.
• General portfolio
  • Rotate profits from parabolic rallies (energy) into beaten-up but structurally supported resources (gold, silver, uranium, select base/critical metals).
  • Use option overlays (covered calls) to retain exposure while reducing downside risk.

Risks, caveats and conflicting signals

• Chart vs. fundamentals: oil shows bearish chart formations (topping tail/flag) while fundamentals (war, supply worries) remain bullish — Steve leans toward charts but acknowledges the conflict.
• Cyclicality: commodities and miners are cyclical — timing and scaling are important; lines like the rising 200-DMA can be violated (he notes roughly one-third of the time).
• Supply-side risks: inputs like sulfuric acid and shipping chokepoints (Strait of Hormuz) can produce unexpected production disruptions.
• Behavioral bias: Steve acknowledged a comfort bias investing more in North American producers — not claiming special access or insider information.

Disclosures / promotional notes

• No explicit “not financial advice” phrase was stated in the transcript. Steve did note he invests more in North American names because of personal comfort, not special insight.
• He promotes a paid technical-analysis course and an Easter promo code (“goldenegg”) with a link in the video description.

Presenters / sources

• Steve Barton — host of “In It to Win It” (YouTube), primary market/technical analyst and speaker.
• Charlotte Mloud — interviewer, Investing.com.