Summary of "Ngobrol Saham: Pengalaman Founder Mikirduit Beli Saham Backdoor Listing Ini, Begini Nasibnya"
Summary
The video features Surya, the founder of Mikir Duit, sharing his personal experience and analysis of investing in a backdoor listing stock, FUTR, which transitioned from a digital content/advertising business to a renewable energy company under new control by Hexa Prima.
Main Financial Strategies and Insights:
- Gradual Investment and Risk Management: Surya emphasizes entering the stock gradually (starting with 10-20% of planned capital) and adding more shares during price dips to lower the average cost.
- Use of warrants to Reduce Average Price: He bought and exercised warrants when their combined cost was cheaper than the market price, helping reduce his average acquisition price.
- Long-term Conviction Despite Volatility: Despite floating losses exceeding 40% at one point, he held the stock due to belief in the company’s future transformation and asset transfers.
- Focus on Corporate Actions and Business Transformation: The key to his investment thesis was the transition of FUTR into an environmentally friendly energy (EBT) company, including hydropower and carbon capture projects, supported by collaborations with Chinese contractors and asset transfers from Hexa Prima.
- Monitoring Fundamental Developments: He closely follows asset transfers, business growth, and quarterly financial reports to evaluate whether the company is progressing toward its renewable energy goals.
- Skepticism on Valuation and Target Price: Surya admits difficulty in determining a fair price or target due to unclear asset values and uncertain business scale, suggesting technical resistance levels (previous highs around 180) as optimistic price targets.
- Exit Strategy Considerations: He plans to exit if no asset transfers or meaningful business growth occur, recognizing the speculative nature of backdoor listing stocks.
Market and Business Trend Analyses:
- Backdoor Listing as a Speculative Opportunity: FUTR’s backdoor listing and business pivot represent a speculative but potentially rewarding investment if the new business model succeeds.
- renewable energy Sector Potential: The shift toward renewable energy, including hydropower and carbon capture, is seen as a promising growth area, though still early and with uncertain valuation.
- Financial Performance Shift: The company’s profit margin improved significantly (from ~1% to ~14%) despite a drop in revenue, indicating better profitability in the new business model compared to the previous advertising business.
- Retail Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics: Surya notes unusual retail buying activity, possibly masking controlling shareholders’ moves, highlighting the complexity of market behavior in such stocks.
Methodology / Step-by-Step Guide for Investing in Speculative Backdoor Listing Stocks:
- Start with a small portion of planned capital (e.g., 10-20%) to test conviction.
- Add shares gradually during price retracements to lower average cost.
- Utilize financial instruments like warrants to reduce acquisition price.
- Follow corporate disclosures, public expos, and direct communication with company insiders to understand business direction.
- Monitor quarterly financial reports for signs of business transformation and profitability.
- Set realistic price targets based on technical resistance levels and known company milestones.
- Prepare an exit plan if expected business developments do not materialize.
- Manage risk by limiting allocation size due to speculative nature.
- Maintain patience and avoid emotional decisions during price volatility.
Presenter / Source:
- Surya, Founder of Mikir Duit (YouTube Channel: Mikir Duit)
Category
Business and Finance
