Summary of "ЭТО НАСТОЯЩАЯ КАТАСТРОФА/ НОВЫЕ НАЛОГИ/ ПЛАНА СПАСЕНИЯ ЭКОНОМИКИ НЕТ/ РАЗРАСТАНИЕ КРИЗИСА. Милов"

The video presents a detailed and critical analysis of Russia’s current deepening budget crisis, Economic Stagnation, and the government’s inability to find a viable plan to resolve these issues. Key points include:

Budget Deficit Crisis: The 2026 budget reveals a large, sustained deficit of 3-4 trillion rubles annually for at least seven years, marking the worst fiscal situation since the 1990s. This deficit is far larger than the reserves of the National Welfare Fund, which will be insufficient to cover even half of the shortfall.
No Economic Growth or Oil Price Relief: The government does not foresee any economic growth or a rise in oil prices to alleviate the crisis. Instead, a long-term period of Economic Stagnation and large deficits is expected.
Tax Increases Insufficient: Recent hikes in VAT (from 20% to 22%) and taxes on small businesses are described as desperate, insufficient measures that cannot close the budget gap. Tax collection is falling short of targets, partly due to the negative impact of higher taxes on economic activity.
Small Business and Self-Employed Under Pressure: The government is tightening tax rules on small businesses and the self-employed, lowering thresholds for VAT payments and threatening to increase social contributions, which risks destroying the small business sector and further shrinking economic activity.
Borrowing Challenges and Monetary Policy: Borrowing costs have surged, with government bond yields rising to around 15%, making debt servicing extremely expensive (estimated at 9% of expenditures). The government is increasingly relying on money injections via Central Bank auctions and repos, a form of monetary emission that fuels inflation.
Inflation and Central Bank Policy: Inflation has returned and is running above 8%, with fuel prices (gasoline and diesel) rising sharply, exacerbating inflationary pressures. This makes a rate cut by the Central Bank unlikely in the near future, further constraining economic growth.
Industrial and Investment Decline: Industrial growth has slowed dramatically, with civilian manufacturing output down over 5% in eight months. Investment is forecasted to decline in 2026, and real wage growth is stagnating or negative after adjusting for inflation, signaling worsening living standards.
Military Spending and War Impact: Military expenditures are large but increasingly opaque, with official figures hidden to avoid alarming markets. The ongoing war imposes heavy financial and human resource costs, limiting Russia’s ability to launch large-scale offensives and straining the budget further.
Fuel Crisis: Refinery capacity is deteriorating, leading to shortages and rising prices of gasoline and diesel, critical for both civilian and military transport. Attempts to regulate fuel prices have failed, contributing to inflation.
Outlook and Political Implications: The presenter emphasizes the absence of any credible economic recovery plan, with the government seemingly resigned to prolonged hardship. The ongoing war exacerbates fiscal pressures, and there is skepticism about Putin’s capacity or willingness to change course. The comparison to the late Soviet and 1990s crises suggests potential for severe economic and social consequences if the situation continues.
Call to Action: The presenter encourages viewers to support independent economic analysis and to be aware of the worsening economic realities masked by official narratives.