Summary of Risikoanalyse einfach erklärt: Der Risikowert im Projektmanagement

Main Ideas and Concepts:

Understanding Risks in Projects:
Every project carries risks, and it's crucial to identify which risks are the most threatening from the outset. A risk is defined as an event or circumstance that has a probability of occurring and can have negative impacts.
Key Characteristics of Risks:
Risks differ based on two main characteristics: the probability of occurrence and the extent of damage (impact). These characteristics can be assessed qualitatively or quantitatively.
Quantitative risk assessment:
The video emphasizes the importance of estimating the probability of occurrence (in percentage) and the potential damage (in monetary terms) for each identified risk. The risk value is calculated by multiplying the probability of occurrence by the estimated impact.

Estimate Probability of Occurrence:
- Assess the likelihood of each risk occurring, acknowledging that this is often a rough estimate.
- Use historical data or past occurrences to inform your estimates.
- Relax and understand that these estimates will be approximations.
Estimate Impact of Risks:
- Calculate the potential financial damage if a risk occurs, considering factors like project delays and penalties for late delivery.
- Use realistic cost estimates to determine the financial impact on the project.
Calculate Risk Value:
Use the formula: Risk Value = Probability of Occurrence x Estimated Impact.

Example calculations:
- Risk A: Probability of 10% and impact of €100,000 results in a risk value of €10,000.
- Risk B: Probability of 5% and impact of €10,000 results in a risk value of €500.
Comparative Analysis of Risks:
The calculated risk values allow for comparison between different risks to prioritize management efforts.

Limitations of Risk Value:
The risk value does not capture all aspects, such as reputational damage or severe consequences like environmental disasters. It is essential not to rely solely on the risk value without considering qualitative factors.
Call to Action:
The video encourages viewers to stay engaged with further resources on risk management, including links to additional videos and online courses.

The content is presented by the channel "projects made easy," although individual speakers are not explicitly named in the subtitles.

— 04:54 — « Relax, it will only ever be one very rough estimate. »

— 08:38 — « Don't blindly rely on the risk value. There are aspects that are not correctly recorded in the risk value. »

— 09:44 — « Just because you now have the nice risk value, don't switch off your mind completely. »