Summary of "Andy Hoese: Energy vs. Metals — Best Opportunities I See Now"
Presenter(s) / Sources
- Charlotte Mloud (investingnews.com) — interviewer
- Andy Hoese / Andy Hosy — Founder, Finding Value Finance
Finance-focused summary (markets, investing approach, recommendations)
Andy Hoese outlines a hybrid, long-term “value + cycle + chart” framework and argues that energy (especially oil) is the most mispriced opportunity now. He also views metals/uranium as constructive, but with different timing.
Core investing approach (methodology / framework)
The 3-part market lens (“paradigms/viewpoints”)
- Technical analysis
- Use chart patterns to identify where price sits in a cycle (e.g., bottoming or topping signals).
- Market cycles
- At tops, some sectors appear overvalued.
- At bottoms, other sectors appear undervalued.
- Goal: avoid chasing peaks.
- Ratios (relative valuation)
- Use price/valuation ratios across asset classes in “real time” to see which side is cheap vs. expensive.
Hybrid investing stance
- Combines fundamentals + technicals (not technicals alone).
- Emphasis on alignment with the market cycle (bull vs. bear).
- Focus: buy undervalued assets near market bottoms.
Time horizon
- Primarily a long-term investor.
- Estimates ~10–20 years (or longer) to work through the bull-market cycle.
- Generally avoids precise short-term timing (“I just sit through these things”).
Key macro/cycle thesis: commodities super cycle & early-2030s turning point
- Hoese anchors a major inflection around the early 2030s (peak/turn).
- He suggests a commodities super cycle is underway and could include:
- Possible larger consolidation/pullback in 2030–2032
- A potential alignment with real estate cycles
- Real estate peak guess: late 2020s to early 2030s
- Followed by potential recession risk in the early 2030s
- Then continuation higher afterward (stated as a guess, not certainty)
Energy / Oil: main recommendation and rationale
What he’s using to justify oil
- Relative valuation ratio: Crude oil ÷ Gold
- He claims the oil-vs-gold ratio is extremely cheap
- A threshold is mentioned (described as below ~0.4, with transcript context implying an extreme low/cheap zone and referencing “below… .04”).
- Technical pattern
- Mentions “falling wedges” bullish-to-break-higher behavior on the ratio.
- Fundamental macro narrative
- “Energy crisis coming” linked to the Middle East war
- Inventories are being eaten through and acting as buffers that are depleting
Oil price outlook: range + timing window
- Emphasizes asymmetry: limited downside vs. larger upside.
- Cites a very wide projection range: ~$2 to $600 per barrel.
- Says most peaks occur around the early 2030s, with examples: 2030, 2031, 2032.
- Mentions an upside scenario tied to ratios implying “four or five” toward ~$600 a barrel (language unclear, but interpreted as extreme upside if oil re-rates).
- No precision required in his view—focused on capturing a big move by entering when it’s cheap.
Preferred implementation (how to get exposure)
- Prefers oil equities (not direct crude buying).
- Also favors energy service companies
- Mentions adjacent exposure such as coal
- Prefers midcap / small-to-midcap:
- “Ideal size”: roughly hundreds of millions up to single-digit billions market cap
- Rationale: more leverage to upside while avoiding “too small”
- Views larger majors (Chevron, Exxon Mobil) as having less upside oomph.
Natural gas / coal / Canadian oil
- Natural gas: positive view
- Coal: “absolute killer opportunity” (very bullish)
- Canadian oil companies: described as “ridiculously good,” bottoming around April/May 2025, and still “decently valued”
Coal thesis: LNG/LG shipping disruption driving supply constraints
- Attributes coal opportunity partly to LNG supply/shipping disruption from a company described as “Cutter” / “Kutter” (exact entity unclear in transcript).
- Claims:
- Some LNG capacity is permanently damaged (about ~5 years to fix)
- Some capacity is shut in
- ~17% to 25% of the LNG market being shut in (large supply risk)
- Argument:
- Coal fills the slack and has historically outperformed in commodity bull phases
- Coal companies are described as cheap, profitable, and doing share buybacks
Uranium outlook (macro + cycle + valuation caution)
Directional view
- Constructive across time frames:
- Long-term: migration toward nuclear
- Short-term/medium-term: need to restart/operate nuclear plants more, increasing uranium demand
Valuation nuance
- Uranium stocks are “a little bit more expensive” on price-to-book (investors appear to be paying up).
Cycle framing
- Mentions an Elliott Wave-style overlay labeled wave 1–5 starting around 2020.
- Expects the move potentially reaching wave 5 in the early 2030s.
- Expects junior uranium companies to “wake up” later (especially middle to back half of the timeframe).
Gold & Silver: short-term consolidation; long-term upside; key trigger = 10Y yield vs 5%
Short-term
- Gold and silver are in consolidation / pullback.
- Mentions a “three-hump consolidation” pattern (may or may not fully complete).
Long-term
- Believes gold/silver/precious metals will go much higher due to cycle + yield dynamics.
- Uses silver instead of gold based on a historical liquidity/trading difference:
- Silver was “freely traded” in the 1930s/1940s
- Gold was not freely traded before 1970
- Key trigger:
- When US 10-year yield crosses 5%, he expects:
- S&P 500 likely struggles (headwind)
- Possible rotation into gold/silver/commodities
- When US 10-year yield crosses 5%, he expects:
- Explicitly says he’s not worried about short term—focus is long-term.
S&P 500 and the “lost decade” idea
- Claims current conditions resemble previous commodity bull markets.
- Suggests S&P could face a “lost decade”-type sideways/underperformance period.
- Possible drivers mentioned:
- QE / printing money, yield curve control
- Lower rates due to debt situation
- Conditional note: if yields stay under ~5%, S&P might still rise longer
- DXY (US dollar index):
- If “print/control” style policy occurs, he expects DXY to drop
- Since commodities are dollar-priced, weaker USD supports commodity upside
Inflation and its effect on miners (risk management nuance)
- Mining companies rely on:
- Cash flow / earnings
- But costs depend on oil/energy
- Plus risks from demand destruction and interest rates
- Expects gold/silver miners to consolidate, especially as yields rise.
- Highlights 2-year yield breaking to the upside as an inflation/interest-rate signal.
- Links higher real rates/financing conditions to gold consolidation.
Ratio trade: energy vs gold miners (explicit instruments)
He discusses ratios between:
- PSCE = small cap energy fund
- GDX = gold mining ETF
Claims:
- PSCE/GDX shows a bottoming pattern
- Described as “out of cycle,” “falling wedge,” and a double bottom/base
- Early timeframe: an energy/outperformance call around “25–26” (likely 2025–2026) near a bottom; described as an early call.
He also mentions a similar framework using:
- COPX = copper mining equities ETF
- Energy vs COPX: “very similar chart patterns,” implying energy may bottom relative to copper miners.
Copper (Dr. Copper) & recession sensitivity
- Copper: “super bullish”
- Framing:
- Cheap relative to gold
- Expected to benefit from deficits over the next decade+
- Potentially supported even if growth is messy (though recession sensitivity is acknowledged conceptually when asked)
- Still, he says energy is the bigger relative call because energy looks “ridiculously cheap” versus copper equities.
Explicit recommendations / “what to do”
- Best opportunity (his words): Energy / oil as “generational” and among the cheapest ratios vs gold and the S&P 500.
- Implementation preference
- Focus on midcap / small-to-midcap energy and energy services equities
- Include coal and some Canadian oil names (consistent with his timing/valuation view)
- Relative timing view
- Near-term/short-term: expects energy to outperform vs gold/silver miners
- Long-term: expects precious metals and uranium to rise, but with different intermediate timing; uranium miners may already be more richly valued on P/B
Disclosures / disclaimers
- No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the provided subtitles.
Instruments / tickers mentioned
- Crude oil
- Gold, silver
- US 10-year yield, 2-year yield
- S&P 500
- DXY (US dollar index)
- PSCE (small cap energy fund ETF)
- GDX (gold miners ETF)
- COPX (copper mining equities ETF)
- Chevron (CVX) (mentioned generically as “Chevrons”)
- Exxon Mobil (XOM) (mentioned generically)
- Copper (“Dr. copper”)
- Uranium (no specific ticker/ETF mentioned)
- Coal equities (no specific ticker mentioned)
Category
Finance
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