Andy Hoese: Energy vs. Metals — Best Opportunities I See Now

Presenter(s) / Sources

• Charlotte Mloud (investingnews.com) — interviewer
• Andy Hoese / Andy Hosy — Founder, Finding Value Finance

Finance-focused summary (markets, investing approach, recommendations)

Andy Hoese outlines a hybrid, long-term “value + cycle + chart” framework and argues that energy (especially oil) is the most mispriced opportunity now. He also views metals/uranium as constructive, but with different timing.

Core investing approach (methodology / framework)

The 3-part market lens (“paradigms/viewpoints”)

• Technical analysis
  • Use chart patterns to identify where price sits in a cycle (e.g., bottoming or topping signals).
• Market cycles
  • At tops, some sectors appear overvalued.
  • At bottoms, other sectors appear undervalued.
  • Goal: avoid chasing peaks.
• Ratios (relative valuation)
  • Use price/valuation ratios across asset classes in “real time” to see which side is cheap vs. expensive.

Hybrid investing stance

• Combines fundamentals + technicals (not technicals alone).
• Emphasis on alignment with the market cycle (bull vs. bear).
• Focus: buy undervalued assets near market bottoms.

Time horizon

• Primarily a long-term investor.
• Estimates ~10–20 years (or longer) to work through the bull-market cycle.
• Generally avoids precise short-term timing (“I just sit through these things”).

Key macro/cycle thesis: commodities super cycle & early-2030s turning point

• Hoese anchors a major inflection around the early 2030s (peak/turn).
• He suggests a commodities super cycle is underway and could include:
  • Possible larger consolidation/pullback in 2030–2032
  • A potential alignment with real estate cycles
    • Real estate peak guess: late 2020s to early 2030s
    • Followed by potential recession risk in the early 2030s
    • Then continuation higher afterward (stated as a guess, not certainty)

Energy / Oil: main recommendation and rationale

What he’s using to justify oil

• Relative valuation ratio: Crude oil ÷ Gold
  • He claims the oil-vs-gold ratio is extremely cheap
  • A threshold is mentioned (described as below ~0.4, with transcript context implying an extreme low/cheap zone and referencing “below… .04”).
• Technical pattern
  • Mentions “falling wedges” bullish-to-break-higher behavior on the ratio.
• Fundamental macro narrative
  • “Energy crisis coming” linked to the Middle East war
  • Inventories are being eaten through and acting as buffers that are depleting

Oil price outlook: range + timing window

• Emphasizes asymmetry: limited downside vs. larger upside.
• Cites a very wide projection range: ~$2 to $600 per barrel.
• Says most peaks occur around the early 2030s, with examples: 2030, 2031, 2032.
• Mentions an upside scenario tied to ratios implying “four or five” toward ~$600 a barrel (language unclear, but interpreted as extreme upside if oil re-rates).
• No precision required in his view—focused on capturing a big move by entering when it’s cheap.

Preferred implementation (how to get exposure)

• Prefers oil equities (not direct crude buying).
  • Also favors energy service companies
  • Mentions adjacent exposure such as coal
• Prefers midcap / small-to-midcap:
  • “Ideal size”: roughly hundreds of millions up to single-digit billions market cap
  • Rationale: more leverage to upside while avoiding “too small”
• Views larger majors (Chevron, Exxon Mobil) as having less upside oomph.

Natural gas / coal / Canadian oil

• Natural gas: positive view
• Coal: “absolute killer opportunity” (very bullish)
• Canadian oil companies: described as “ridiculously good,” bottoming around April/May 2025, and still “decently valued”

Coal thesis: LNG/LG shipping disruption driving supply constraints

• Attributes coal opportunity partly to LNG supply/shipping disruption from a company described as “Cutter” / “Kutter” (exact entity unclear in transcript).
• Claims:
  • Some LNG capacity is permanently damaged (about ~5 years to fix)
  • Some capacity is shut in
  • ~17% to 25% of the LNG market being shut in (large supply risk)
• Argument:
  • Coal fills the slack and has historically outperformed in commodity bull phases
  • Coal companies are described as cheap, profitable, and doing share buybacks

Uranium outlook (macro + cycle + valuation caution)

Directional view

• Constructive across time frames:
  • Long-term: migration toward nuclear
  • Short-term/medium-term: need to restart/operate nuclear plants more, increasing uranium demand

Valuation nuance

• Uranium stocks are “a little bit more expensive” on price-to-book (investors appear to be paying up).

Cycle framing

• Mentions an Elliott Wave-style overlay labeled wave 1–5 starting around 2020.
• Expects the move potentially reaching wave 5 in the early 2030s.
• Expects junior uranium companies to “wake up” later (especially middle to back half of the timeframe).

Gold & Silver: short-term consolidation; long-term upside; key trigger = 10Y yield vs 5%

Short-term

• Gold and silver are in consolidation / pullback.
• Mentions a “three-hump consolidation” pattern (may or may not fully complete).

Long-term

• Believes gold/silver/precious metals will go much higher due to cycle + yield dynamics.
• Uses silver instead of gold based on a historical liquidity/trading difference:
  • Silver was “freely traded” in the 1930s/1940s
  • Gold was not freely traded before 1970
• Key trigger:
  • When US 10-year yield crosses 5%, he expects:
    • S&P 500 likely struggles (headwind)
    • Possible rotation into gold/silver/commodities
• Explicitly says he’s not worried about short term—focus is long-term.

S&P 500 and the “lost decade” idea

• Claims current conditions resemble previous commodity bull markets.
• Suggests S&P could face a “lost decade”-type sideways/underperformance period.
• Possible drivers mentioned:
  • QE / printing money, yield curve control
  • Lower rates due to debt situation
  • Conditional note: if yields stay under ~5%, S&P might still rise longer
• DXY (US dollar index):
  • If “print/control” style policy occurs, he expects DXY to drop
  • Since commodities are dollar-priced, weaker USD supports commodity upside

Inflation and its effect on miners (risk management nuance)

• Mining companies rely on:
  • Cash flow / earnings
  • But costs depend on oil/energy
  • Plus risks from demand destruction and interest rates
• Expects gold/silver miners to consolidate, especially as yields rise.
• Highlights 2-year yield breaking to the upside as an inflation/interest-rate signal.
• Links higher real rates/financing conditions to gold consolidation.

Ratio trade: energy vs gold miners (explicit instruments)

He discusses ratios between:

• PSCE = small cap energy fund
• GDX = gold mining ETF

Claims:

• PSCE/GDX shows a bottoming pattern
  • Described as “out of cycle,” “falling wedge,” and a double bottom/base
• Early timeframe: an energy/outperformance call around “25–26” (likely 2025–2026) near a bottom; described as an early call.

He also mentions a similar framework using:

• COPX = copper mining equities ETF
• Energy vs COPX: “very similar chart patterns,” implying energy may bottom relative to copper miners.

Copper (Dr. Copper) & recession sensitivity

• Copper: “super bullish”
• Framing:
  • Cheap relative to gold
  • Expected to benefit from deficits over the next decade+
  • Potentially supported even if growth is messy (though recession sensitivity is acknowledged conceptually when asked)
• Still, he says energy is the bigger relative call because energy looks “ridiculously cheap” versus copper equities.

Explicit recommendations / “what to do”

• Best opportunity (his words): Energy / oil as “generational” and among the cheapest ratios vs gold and the S&P 500.
• Implementation preference
  • Focus on midcap / small-to-midcap energy and energy services equities
  • Include coal and some Canadian oil names (consistent with his timing/valuation view)
• Relative timing view
  • Near-term/short-term: expects energy to outperform vs gold/silver miners
  • Long-term: expects precious metals and uranium to rise, but with different intermediate timing; uranium miners may already be more richly valued on P/B

Disclosures / disclaimers

• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the provided subtitles.

Instruments / tickers mentioned

• Crude oil
• Gold, silver
• US 10-year yield, 2-year yield
• S&P 500
• DXY (US dollar index)
• PSCE (small cap energy fund ETF)
• GDX (gold miners ETF)
• COPX (copper mining equities ETF)
• Chevron (CVX) (mentioned generically as “Chevrons”)
• Exxon Mobil (XOM) (mentioned generically)
• Copper (“Dr. copper”)
• Uranium (no specific ticker/ETF mentioned)
• Coal equities (no specific ticker mentioned)