Summary of "ジョン・ミアシャイマー教授　　　「リベラルの妄想とNATOがいかにしてウクライを偽善の道へと導いたか」　　　2025年8月1日　　john mearsheimer"

The video features a detailed interview with Professor John Mearsheimer, who critiques the post-Cold War liberal international order and U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding NATO expansion and the Ukraine crisis. Mearsheimer argues that the liberal worldview—characterized by the belief in spreading democracy and liberal values globally—has been a delusion that ignored the realities of power politics (Realism) and nationalism, ultimately leading to disastrous outcomes such as the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Key Points:

The Liberal Delusion and Post-Cold War Policy
- After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the U.S. became the sole superpower and adopted a liberal foreign policy aimed at spreading democracy and capitalism worldwide without regard for traditional power balances.
- This "Liberal Hegemony" assumed other states would welcome integration into a liberal international order, dismissing concerns from Russia and China as outdated Cold War fears.
NATO Expansion and Russia
- NATO expansion began in the 1990s under Bill Clinton, incorporating Eastern European countries like Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, not primarily to contain Russia but to create a peaceful, democratic Europe.
- Russia was weak and economically devastated at the time and did not pose a direct military threat; policymakers underestimated Russian concerns and assumed Russia would eventually join or accept the alliance.
- The expansion continued with further rounds in 2004 and 2008, including promises to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, which Russia perceived as a direct existential threat, leading to sharp opposition.
Ukraine Crisis and the Failure of Liberalism
- Until 2014, U.S. policy did not explicitly aim to block Russia, but after Russia’s annexation of Crimea and conflict in Donbas, the West framed Russia as an aggressive threat.
- Mearsheimer argues that the U.S. and its allies led Ukraine down a false path by insisting on Ukraine’s right to join NATO without considering Russian security concerns, which are legitimate from a realist perspective.
- He predicted in 2015 that this policy would ultimately destroy Ukraine, a prediction borne out by the ongoing war since 2022.
Clash of Ideologies: Liberalism vs. Realism and Nationalism
- The U.S. and its allies operate from a liberal worldview emphasizing rights, sovereignty, and spreading democracy, while Russia and China view international relations through Realism, focusing on power, security, and national interest.
- Nationalism further complicates this, as countries resist external interference and imposition of political systems.
- This ideological mismatch has fueled conflict and mistrust, with liberal assumptions often dismissing the security concerns of other states.
Realist Perspective on Ending the Ukraine War
- Mearsheimer suggests the war can only end through a negotiated settlement that accepts Russia’s core demands: Ukrainian neutrality (no NATO membership), some degree of Ukrainian disarmament, and recognition of Russian control over Crimea and other seized territories.
- He believes such a deal would serve Ukraine’s and the U.S.’s interests by ending the conflict and allowing the U.S. to pivot focus to containing China in Asia.
- However, he acknowledges that Ukraine, European countries, and much of the West are unlikely to accept these terms, making a negotiated peace improbable.
U.S. Global Commitments and Strategic Challenges
- The U.S. is currently stretched across three major theaters: East Asia (containing China), Europe/Ukraine, and the Middle East.
- Mearsheimer argues the U.S. should reduce its presence in Europe and the Middle East to focus on Asia, but current politics and alliances prevent this shift.
- European countries desire continued U.S. military presence to ensure their security, which prolongs the conflict.
Europe’s Dilemma and Future
- Europeans risk economic weakening and instability by continuing to rely on U.S. involvement and prolonging the war in Ukraine.
- Mearsheimer advises Europe to seek peace with Russia, improve relations, and cooperate economically with China, while accepting that American influence in Europe will diminish.
- He notes that European elites are changing, and the era of Western dominance is ending as the world becomes more multipolar and internally diverse due to immigration and social changes.
Liberalism’s Inherent Contradictions and Failures
- Liberal Hegemony aimed to spread liberal democracy globally, but nationalism and Realism inevitably resist such interference.
- Attempts to impose liberal democracy, especially through military means, have led to conflict, instability, and backlash (e.g., Middle East interventions, Ukraine).
- The belief in liberalism’s inevitability and moral superiority blinds policymakers to the limits of power and the realities of international politics.
Nationalism Within the West
- Even in the U.S., nationalism shapes foreign policy, exemplified