Summary of "Ben Cowen: 2025 Review & What’s Coming for Crypto in 2026"

Summary of “Ben Cowen: 2025 Review & What’s Coming for Crypto in 2026”

Market & Macro Context

2025 Crypto Market Review:

Disappointing year for altcoins; Bitcoin remained largely flat year-over-year.
Bitcoin price roughly the same as 12 months ago despite macro and regulatory developments.
The cycle followed historical four-year Bitcoin halving patterns with diminishing returns.
The 2025 cycle topped in Q4 of the post-halving year, consistent with previous cycles.
Market top characterized by apathy, not euphoria, resembling 2019 more than prior euphoric tops.
Bitcoin dominance increased as altcoins underperformed, similar to patterns seen after quantitative tightening (QT) periods.
Altcoins have been punished, with many trading near 2022 lows; alt season is unlikely without renewed retail interest.

Monetary Policy Impact:

The current cycle is shaped by a higher-for-longer interest rate environment and ongoing QT.
Fed funds rate durably above the 2-year Treasury yield (neutral rate) suppresses alt seasons.
Expected shift when Fed funds rate drops below neutral rate, potentially signaling a pivot in crypto market dynamics.
Powell’s replacement as Fed Chair in 2026 could lead to aggressive rate cuts, possibly rekindling “animal spirits” and a new bull phase.
Historical parallels drawn with late 1990s Fed rate cuts leading to a temporary rally followed by a reset.

Market Cycles & Timing:

Bitcoin and crypto markets typically bottom ~12 months after the top; 2026 mid-year or October 2026 are possible bottom timeframes.
October 2026 coincides with historical stock market bottoms and aligns with MicroStrategy’s 98-week bottom cycle.
A counter-trend relief rally expected in early 2026, possibly lasting a couple of months, followed by a further decline into mid-2026.
Bitcoin likely to rally to a lower high in early 2026; some altcoins may see isolated new all-time highs but no broad alt season.
Retail interest and social engagement metrics are currently declining, contrasting with prior alt seasons in 2017 and 2021.

Investing & Trading Strategy

Four-Year Cycle Framework:

The four-year Bitcoin halving cycle remains a robust framework for timing market entry and exit.
Recommended approach: Buy near cycle lows (Q4 2022), hold through noise, sell near cycle tops (Q4 2025).
Ignore crypto headlines and regulatory noise for trading decisions; focus on data-driven signals and historical patterns.
Acknowledge that the cycle will eventually break but predicting the break is futile.

Data-Driven Focus:

Key data points include:
- Fed funds rate
- 2-year Treasury yield
- Bitcoin dominance
- On-chain metrics (terminal price, supply, profit/loss)
- Social interest
Top indicators like the Pi Cycle Top Indicator did not trigger in 2025 due to lack of euphoria.
Bitcoin dominance is a critical metric; blue-chip crypto assets (Bitcoin) outperform altcoins in restrictive monetary environments.

Risk Management:

Maintain a core Bitcoin position (20-30%) regardless of market conditions to hedge against unexpected rallies.
Be open to market shifts but avoid overreacting to headlines or short-term price moves.
Recognize that bear markets with euphoric tops tend to have deeper drawdowns due to retail capitulation; current market is more subdued.

Sector & Asset Highlights

Bitcoin (BTC):

Price roughly flat over 2025.
Expected to lead market recovery or further declines.
Dominance over altcoins remains strong.
Likely to form a lower high in early 2026 relief rally.

Altcoins:

Underperformed significantly; many near cycle lows relative to BTC.
No broad alt season expected in 2026 unless retail interest reverses.
Some micro-cap altcoins may see isolated rallies (e.g., Zcash recent rally).
Meme coins and quick cash-grab projects have distracted developer talent, shifting some to AI.

AI Sector & Stocks:

AI is a major narrative driving stock market (MAG 7 stocks like Nvidia).
Concerns about an AI bubble exist but timing is uncertain; could last until 2027-2028.
AI companies generally profitable, supporting ongoing interest.
Possible stock market correction of 10-15% in early 2026 expected.
Market valuations show mixed signals depending on metrics (S&P 500 vs. money supply or gold).

Methodology / Framework Summary

Use historical four-year Bitcoin halving cycles as primary timing tool.
Monitor macroeconomic indicators:
- Fed funds rate vs. 2-year Treasury yield (neutral rate)
- Federal Reserve balance sheet changes
- On-chain crypto metrics (terminal price, supply, profit/loss, Pi Cycle indicator)
Track Bitcoin dominance as a proxy for market health and altcoin performance.
Pay attention to retail interest and social media engagement trends for alt season signals.
Expect relief rallies in bear markets followed by further declines before bottoming.
Maintain a core Bitcoin holding for long-term exposure.
Avoid trading based on crypto-specific headlines or regulatory news; focus on data.

Key Numbers & Timelines

Bitcoin dominance topped ~1 month after QT ended (historical pattern).
Bitcoin cycle length ~4 years; 2025 top in October aligns with past cycles.
Relief rally in early 2026, potentially starting late December 2025 or February 2026.
Bear market bottom expected mid-2026 to October 2026.
MicroStrategy bottomed ~98 weeks after its peak; aligns with October 2026 timing.
Fed funds rate currently above neutral (2-year Treasury yield); expected to drop after Powell’s replacement.
Stock market correction of 10-15% anticipated in early 2026.
AI bubble risk horizon: 2027-2028.

Disclaimers & Notes

Not financial advice (NFA). Market conditions can change; all predictions are probabilistic. The four-year cycle will eventually break; timing unknown. Trading based on data and historical patterns is recommended over headline-driven decisions. Crypto markets remain volatile and subject to macroeconomic and regulatory influences.

Presenters / Sources

Ben Cowen — Crypto analyst, YouTuber, founder of Into the Cryptoverse
Host — Coin Bureau podcast (in-person episode, Dubai)

Summary

Ben Cowen reviews 2025 as a subdued crypto year marked by Bitcoin’s flat price and altcoin underperformance amid a high interest rate, QT macro environment. He advocates for a data-driven approach centered on the four-year halving cycle, Fed funds rate vs. neutral rate, and Bitcoin dominance. He forecasts a relief rally in early 2026, followed by a possible bottom mid-to-late 2026, coinciding with expected Fed chair replacement and midterm elections. AI remains a powerful market narrative but with bubble risks over the next few years. Overall, investors should focus on core Bitcoin holdings, ignore headline noise, and watch macroeconomic signals for market timing.