Summary of [초청특강] 한국, 인구문제 어떻게 돌파할 것인가? - 김태유 교수(서울대학교 산업공학과 명예교수)

The lecture by Professor Emeritus Kim Tae-yu of Seoul National University addresses South Korea’s critical demographic crisis characterized by an extremely low birth rate (dropping to 0.6 in late 2023) and the world’s fastest aging population. This demographic shift threatens the country’s future viability, with some experts warning that South Korea could become the first disappearing nation. Despite massive government spending (over 380 trillion won since 2006) on policies to counteract this trend, the birth rate continues to decline, indicating that current measures are ineffective.

Key Points and Analyses:

1. Global and Historical Context of Population Trends
   • Historically, agricultural societies had high birth and death rates, resulting in a triangular population pyramid.
   • The Industrial Revolution improved living standards and medical care, drastically reducing death rates and increasing life expectancy, causing population booms and inverted pyramids.
   • Currently, many countries, including South Korea, face a box-shaped population pyramid with low birth rates and aging populations.
   • Globally, declining birth rates are seen as a natural adaptation to overpopulation and environmental limits (as highlighted by the Club of Rome’s Limits to Growth).
   • While a global low birth rate trend can be a “blessing” for Earth’s sustainability, South Korea’s rate is dangerously low, akin to malnutrition rather than a healthy diet.
2. South Korea’s Unique Demographic Crisis
   • South Korea suffers from extreme overpopulation in terms of density (517 people/km², much higher than Sweden or Japan) and severe job and wealth concentration in the Seoul metropolitan area (50% of jobs concentrated there).
   • Economic growth has been stagnating or declining (~1% average decline over 30 years), fueling hopelessness among the younger generation.
   • This hopelessness leads to the "Sampo Generation" phenomenon—young people giving up on dating, marriage, and childbirth.
   • Older generations often misunderstand or criticize the youth, blaming them for selfishness, but the root cause is economic and social despair passed down from prior generations.
3. Failures of Current Policies and Misdiagnoses
   • The government’s approach, heavily reliant on financial subsidies for childbirth and childcare, is insufficient and sometimes counterproductive.
   • The actual cost of raising a child in Korea is about 600 million won, far exceeding subsidies, creating a perception that only the wealthy can afford children, which discourages births.
   • Housing policies that focus on supplying homes in Seoul exacerbate metropolitan concentration and worsen competition, further discouraging family formation.
   • Unlike other advanced countries (e.g., France), South Korea’s low birth rate is driven by overpopulation stress, excessive competition, and low economic growth, making foreign policy models inapplicable.
4. The Dependency Ratio and “Valley of Death”
   • The dependency ratio (ratio of non-working young and elderly supported by working-age population) is shifting from child-dependency to elderly-dependency.
   • Korea is entering a critical phase where one working person will have to support one elderly person, an unsustainable burden likely to collapse pension and healthcare systems.
   • The “valley of death” refers to this transition period requiring urgent structural adjustments.
5. Proposed Solutions
   • Conservative measures: Adjust pension, health insurance, and defense responsibilities to align with the changing population structure to prevent system collapse.
   • Active measures:
     • Embrace the 4th Industrial Revolution to increase labor productivity through AI and robotics, enabling fewer workers to support more people.
     • Create a “double-cropping society” by extending the working age of healthy middle-aged and older adults (55-74 years) to increase the economically active population.
     • Decentralize population and economic activities from Seoul by promoting balanced regional development, leveraging emerging opportunities such as the Arctic shipping route that could benefit southeastern Korean ports like Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam.
   • These combined approaches aim to overcome the “valley of death” until productivity gains from technology mature.
6. Call to Action
   • The demographic crisis is largely caused by policy failures and economic stagnation inherited from older generations.
   • Young people are the primary victims but must also become active agents in solving the crisis.
   • The lecture urges a shift from ineffective financial incentives to structural reforms focused on productivity, regional balance, and realistic adaptation to demographic realities.

Conclusion

South Korea faces a demographic emergency unlike any other advanced nation, driven by unique socio-economic factors. Current policies are inadequate, and a fundamental shift in approach is necessary—one that combines conservative fiscal adjustments, technological innovation, and regional development to restore hope and sustainability. The responsibility to address this crisis lies with all generations, especially the youth who will live with the consequences.

Presenter/Contributor:

• Professor Emeritus Kim Tae-yu, Seoul National University, Department

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