My 2 Swing Trading Strategies which helped me DOUBLE my Portfolio in 6 Months!

Finance-Focused Summary (Markets, Strategies, Portfolio/Risk, Key Numbers)

Performance / Portfolio Results (Zerodha)

• The speaker and wife together booked ~₹1 crore profit in their Zerodha accounts over the last 6 months.
• Equity segment (combined):
  • 1 Apr to 18 Oct (wife + speaker equity combined)
    • Net realized: ~₹53–54 lakh
      • Reported as approximately ~₹53.45 lakh in one account, and ~₹50.19 lakh / ~₹54.17 lakh in another line—figures appear approximate due to subtitle inconsistencies.
    • Unrealized: ~₹1.89 lakh
      • Later also mentions an unrealized loss of ~₹3.29 lakh in the other account.
• Risk posture (unrealized exposure cap)
  • They manage unrealized exposure to stay within roughly ±23% of account size by frequently booking profits, especially in sideways markets.

Macro/Market Regime Idea: “Sideways vs Bear”

• Their swing strategy changes by regime:
  • In sideways markets, they prefer to book profits because stocks often revert to prior levels.
  • They emphasize distinguishing sideways vs bear and warn that frequent churn/stop-loss behavior can hurt performance during fast sector rotation (especially in sideways markets).

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Core Trading / Investing Frameworks Mentioned

1) Swing Trading: VCP / IPO-Based Trading with Moving-Average Trailing + Strict Exits

• Strategy named VCP pattern (described as similar to “cup with handle / multiple handles”).
• Entry / Setup
  • Identify a VCP-like tight consolidation near resistance:
    • Multiple “depths” of pullbacks should become progressively shallower.
    • Tightness should occur before breakout.
• IPO-based execution approach
  • Initial buy: buy a first tranche around a reference price (example mentioned: ~₹100), and also includes buying after breakout above listing price with a retest.
  • Add/top up: add when price breaks above the listing-day price, then retests.
  • Trailing method: trail using 21-day moving average (21 EMA) or 63 EMA (whichever fits the setup).

21 EMA Exit Logic (as described)

• If the price closes below the 21 EMA, they consider exiting using an additional confirmation:
  • Exit when two continuous red candles form below the 21 EMA.
  • If there is only one red candle and the next day reclaims, they prefer not to exit.
• Re-entry
  • If the stock reclaims 21 EMA after an exit, they re-enter.
  • They stress avoiding missing upside during quick re-entries (example mentioned where exiting early could miss ~34% gain).

Profit/Stop-Loss Behavior (practical intent)

• They reference capturing profit around “rally completion.”
  • Example cited: “45% is fine” (in the context of booking and potentially re-entering by paying a premium).
• Backtest references
  • One variant reportedly had ~66% win rate.
  • Another variant had much lower win rate (~15%) but produced double returns (attributed to different risk/stop logic, per subtitles).

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2) Market-Cycle Timing Using ROC (Rate of Change) on Indices

They use ROC to determine market positioning.

Nifty 50 ROC settings

• ROC length: 18
• Timeframe: 1 month
• Key levels:
  • 0 line → “buy zone”
  • 45 level → “sell/trim zone”
• Rule of thumb
  • Near 0 ⇒ more aggressive equity allocation.
  • Near 45 ⇒ remove some equity; rotate to safer assets.

Small Cap 100 ROC settings

• ROC length: 20 (to account for volatility)
• Timeframe: 1 month
• Similar zero-line logic for buy/entry conditions.

Alternative trigger

• When ROC goes negative → recovers above zero, it can indicate a good entry (to reduce timing errors / prolonged correction exposure).

Mechanistic explanation they give

• They argue index movement is linked to:
  • Earnings growth
  • Over/undervaluation
• When ROC is high (e.g., 45%):
  • index growth may have outpaced earnings growth → overvaluation risk
• When ROC is near 0:
  • index may be undervalued vs fundamentals → better entry timing

Timeline examples mentioned

• March 2023: ROC near 0 ⇒ buy signal.
• September 2024: ROC near ~45 after a top ⇒ sell/trim signal.
• They claim ROC updates once per month (checked on the first weekend).

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3) Stock Screening / Watchlist Creation for IPOs and “Next Sector Leader”

A) Chittorgarh-driven IPO scanning + fundamentals

• Sources: Chittorgarh recent IPO list
• Screen for:
  • Niche product
  • Starting PE + competitor PE comparison
  • Ability for rerating vs peers
• Add qualifying names to a TradingView watchlist.

B) “All-time high in a sideways market” sector hunt

• Core idea:
  • In every bull cycle, a new sector leader emerges.
• Method:
  • When the broader market is sideways (described as last 2–3 months),
  • look for sectors/stocks making new all-time highs.
• Prior examples mentioned:
  • Solar
  • Power transmission / transformer
• Benchmark context mentioned (Small caps):
  • Small Cap 100 bottom around ~8000 in June 2022
  • ~40% correction mentioned from earlier levels (also references a level near 12,000 in 2022/earlier)
• Claim about leadership:
  • Strong leaders don’t fall as much during index drawdowns and then keep printing highs during sideways phases.

Current sector they mention

• Metals & Mining appears strong (per their claim).

AI / research usage

• They mention using AI tools such as:
  • Perplexity Finance
  • Chat Zebit
• They also mention reading conference calls (company examples appear elsewhere in the notes).

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Company / Instrument Examples & Key Numbers

FNO (Futures & Options) Loss Experience (Risk Warning Example)

• Early capital used:
  • ₹5000 + ₹5000
• Outcome:
  • The ₹5000 invested in FNO was wiped out within a month.
• They also mention:
  • ₹67,000 from ₹5,000 at one point,
  • but a single wrong trade wiped out the account—used to argue FNO is not sustainable for them.

“Shakti Pumps” (Long-term + Momentum-ish Holding Example)

• Described as a “stallion company.”
• Approximate timeline/figures mentioned:
  • Identified when:
    • Market cap ~₹400 crore
    • Share price ~₹30
    • They say they “average bought” around ₹30
  • Later claimed as ~25x relative to that starting point.
  • Listed in January 2025 (subtitle: “not very long since it was listed”).
• Management guidance cited:
  • ~35% CAGR in revenue
  • Margin expansion (from investor PPT / conference call)
• Macro catalyst mentioned:
  • PM-KUSUM Yojana (solar pumps; subsidy for irrigation farmers)
• Valuation/market expectations referenced:
  • Around June: trading at PE ~16–18
  • Low liquidity / ESM-related constraints referenced (subtitle suggests ESM 2) affecting rerating.
  • Expectation: “value unlocking” after exiting ESM 2 + possible institutional buying because it’s a mainboard company.
• Market/competitive structure described:
  • Participation in “de-bulking / debulking” of gases
  • Imports gas inputs → processes → supplies locally
  • Global refrigerant gas prices may influence margins.

Other Companies / Mentions (Examples)

• Yes Bank (example of mistakes leading to share-price decline)
• “Next leader” discussion mentions:
  • Sridev (subtitle garbled; described as making components/systems for submarines)
  • Anandita (mentioned as an SME IPO example; implied lower quality product)
  • KNR (described as making heat exchangers; subtitle garbled but references systems for data centers/submarines)
• GMDC mentioned in a rare-earth/mining conference call context.

Trading / Instruments Named

• Nifty 50
• Small Cap 100 Index
• Gold
  • Mentioned via relative rotation ideas like “Nifty vs Gold USD” on TradingView.
• Rotations into mentioned “safer alternates”:
  • Gold
  • Corporate bonds
  • Possibly “gold or corporate bonds” depending on cycle signals.

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Risk Management Approach (Concentration vs Stop-Loss Mechanics)

Position Sizing / Concentration

• They used to hold 30–40 stocks (up to 50).
• They disliked it because:
  • With low weights (e.g., 2% / 3% per stock), they were less likely to cut losers quickly.
  • This kept capital locked in weak stocks for 6 months to 1 year, reducing returns.

Two-Account Concept: “Stop-Loss vs No Stop-Loss”

• Account A: no stop loss
  • Allows larger drawdowns (example losses referenced like -7%, -8%, -13%).
• Account B: caps loss per stock to about 10%
  • Or via moving average / resistance-based alternatives.
• Illustrative math (as stated):
  • Starting ₹100
  • Without loss cap: ends around ₹87.95
  • With 10% loss cap: ends around ₹79.89
• Takeaway: limiting losses changes capital growth dynamics (subtitle numbers appear inconsistent with typical intuition, but the stated point is that losses matter).
• Important caution they add
  • Stop-loss churn can be harmful in a sideways market with fast sector rotation (scenario: churn “twice a month”).
  • They recommend:
    • After consecutive stop-loss hits on multiple trades (example: 5 trades), use only 30–40% of capital for subsequent trades.

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Allocation / Rotation Framework Using ROC Levels

• When ROC is at/near:
  • 0 ⇒ go more aggressive in equity
  • 45 ⇒ shift/sell part of equity into:
    • Gold
    • Corporate bonds
    • (and “anywhere safer” wording)

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Relative Performance Indicator: Nifty vs Gold (Cycle-Based)

• They reference a TradingView ratio:
  • “Nifty by Gold” (USD)
  • They also mention “Gold 20” as a variant (possibly moving average/period variant).
• Rule of thumb:
  • Ratio near bottom channel ⇒ equity outperforms gold
  • Ratio near top channel ⇒ gold outperforms equity
• They claim it worked around the COVID low as an example of cycle switching.

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Presenters / Sources Mentioned

• Shubham
  • Host/speaker; described as an investor
  • Formerly worked at Amazon US
  • Became financially free at age 29
  • Runs a webinar
• Hemant
  • Another named participant/speaker in the webinar segment
• Mark Minervini
  • Mentioned in relation to VCP pattern logic (subtitles reference “Mark Miller Vinnie’s book”)
• Chittorgarh
  • Used as a source for recent IPO lists

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Disclosures / Disclaimers

• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the provided subtitles/notes.