Summary of "The #1 Predictor of Running Injuries, according to new study"
Key Wellness and Injury Prevention Strategies for Runners
Classic 10% Rule (weekly mileage Increase)
- Traditionally advises not increasing weekly mileage by more than 10% week over week.
- Serves as a general guideline, not a strict rule.
- Does not account for:
- Distribution of mileage across runs.
- Intensity or type of runs.
- Experience level of the runner.
- Criticized for lack of precision and applicability to all runners.
New Study Findings (British Journal of Sports Medicine, 2025)
A study tracked 5,200 runners over 18 months using GPS data (~588,000 runs) and compared three models of injury risk prediction:
- Week-to-week mileage ratio (classic 10% Rule).
- Acute to chronic workload ratio (most recent week vs. average of prior 3 weeks).
- Single session spike (increase in longest run distance compared to previous 30 days).
Key Result
Only the single session spike model strongly predicted injury risk:
- Small spikes (10–30% increase in longest run) → 64% higher injury risk.
- Moderate spikes (30–100% increase) → 52% higher injury risk.
- Large spikes (>100% increase) → 128% higher injury risk.
weekly mileage changes showed no significant correlation with injury risk.
Implications for Injury Prevention
- Focus on limiting increases in the longest single run distance rather than just weekly mileage.
- Proposed new 10% Rule: Do not increase your longest long run by more than 10% compared to the longest run in the previous 30 days.
- Consider this alongside other factors such as:
- Distribution and types of runs.
- recovery and rest periods.
- runner’s experience and consistency.
Additional Notes
- weekly mileage data can be noisy due to:
- Variations in run distribution and intensity.
- Potential bias from experienced runners tolerating bigger mileage swings.
- Incomplete weeks after injury or rest.
- The classic 10% Rule remains a useful guideline but should be supplemented with the new focus on single session spikes.
Presenters and Sources
- Run Long Run Healthy podcast hosts:
- Primary presenter (unnamed)
- Co-host: Brady Homer
- Study: Published in the British Journal of Sports Medicine, July 2025, led by researchers from Aarhus University, Denmark.
Category
Wellness and Self-Improvement
