Summary of "Стратегическая сессия первых лиц ритейла: «Смыслы в ритейле: что будет с магазинами завтра?»"

Summary of Strategic Session: «Смыслы в ритейле: что будет с магазинами завтра?»

Context: A strategic session with top executives from Russian and foreign retail companies, developers, and online businesses discussing the outlook for retail stores in 2026 amid economic challenges, changing consumer behavior, and evolving retail formats.

Key Themes & Business Insights

1. Strategic Planning & Market Outlook for 2026

Companies focus on survival and preparation for post-crisis growth:
- Emphasis on internal efficiency to navigate a difficult first half of 2026.
- Preparing for a future economic turnaround and geopolitical stabilization.
No major store expansion unless economically justified; cautious approach to new openings.
Market expected to be stagnant or slightly recessionary with GDP near zero and inflation around 6–8%.
Consumer spending will be minimal and price-sensitive, with a strong focus on value.
Layoffs and bankruptcies expected, increasing unemployment and reducing consumer purchasing power.
First quarter of 2026 predicted to be the toughest; end-of-year sales and multiple salary payments in December may provide temporary relief.

2. Operational Efficiency & Adaptability

Companies are implementing strict budget controls and belt-tightening.
Tender processes for logistics and delivery have started to yield cost reductions for the first time in years.
Operational efficiency and differentiation are key pillars for survival, especially for niche and online players.
Businesses are adapting product assortments and working on premium segments and specialized collections (e.g., youth-focused fashion like Krump style).
Plans include franchise launches and integration with Western platforms to expand export opportunities, particularly in Asia.

3. Offline vs Online Retail Dynamics

Offline stores remain crucial for delivering emotional, tactile experiences and storytelling, which online cannot fully replicate.
Consumers often use offline stores to see and try products, then buy online (“showrooming”).
Online retail continues to grow rapidly; 50%+ of fashion sales already online, with projections up to 80% by 2028.
The future is a seamless omnichannel customer journey, integrating online and offline touchpoints.
Retailers emphasize personalization and customer journey mapping to accommodate diverse buyer needs.
Self-service and cashierless technologies are being introduced but will not replace the need for human interaction and service.

4. Shopping Centers & Retail Real Estate Transformation

Large shopping centers face challenges; many will transform into mixed-use community and entertainment hubs (e.g., fitness centers, restaurants, markets).
Smaller, well-located shopping centers near metro stations or residential areas are more resilient.
The role of creative directors and innovative management in shopping centers is critical to introduce unique concepts and attract foot traffic.
Retail real estate must evolve to offer unique experiences and exclusive brands that cannot be replicated online.
Developers are tightening rental policies due to increased costs but offer long-term, stable partnerships with reliable tenants.
There is a trend of repurposing retail space for socialization, culture, and demographic support (e.g., grants for cultural and demographic projects).

5. Consumer Behavior & Emotional Drivers

Buyers seek emotions, joy, and storytelling when shopping offline, not just transactions.
Gender differences in shopping emotions:
- Men prioritize speed and efficiency.
- Women often seek social approval and style impact.
Younger consumers (“Zoomers”) are highly individualistic, demanding unique, stylish, and expressive products.
However, Zoomers have limited purchasing power; most retail revenue still comes from older demographics.
Retailers are creating special collections and tailored offers for younger audiences but recognize their niche status.

6. Fitness & Leisure as Retail Adjacent Industries

Fitness centers have evolved into socialization hubs, competing for consumers’ time with entertainment and leisure.
Fitness clubs are investing in ambiance (lighting, design) and lifestyle appeal to attract customers.
There is potential for synergy between retail and fitness/leisure sectors to create integrated consumer experiences.

Frameworks, Processes & Playbooks Mentioned

Strategic Planning focused on crisis navigation and post-crisis growth readiness.
Operational Efficiency emphasized through cost control, supplier tendering, and process optimization.
Customer Journey Personalization as a key to future retail success.
Omnichannel Integration blending online and offline sales channels.
Creative Economy & Retail Real Estate Innovation to adapt shopping centers into multi-functional community spaces.
Use of demographic and cultural grants for retail space repurposing.

Key Metrics & KPIs

Retail GDP growth expected ~0% (stagnation/recession).
Inflation forecast: 6–8% in 2026.
Conversion rate in offline stores: >30% (example from Familia).
Planned investment by DDX in 2025: ~18–19 billion rubles, opening 85 projects.
Russian market penetration of fitness/social retail at 5%, potential growth to 20%.
Online fashion sales currently ~50%, projected 80% by 2028.
Logistics/delivery costs: first tender-driven price reductions in 11 years.
Average offline basket size roughly equal to average online basket.

Concrete Examples & Case Studies

Tomler (Sergey Kandakov): German brand continuing cautious store openings if profitable; focus on internal efficiency.
Eco (Denis Tomashevsky): Budget tightening, store closures prioritized over expansion; focus on surviving tough Q1 2026.
Slava Concept (Alexander Peremyatov): Developing franchise, launching ecosystem app, integrating local designers with Western platforms.
Laridut Rus (Igor Gusev): Online furniture and fashion retailer focusing on operational efficiency, differentiation, and premium positioning; plans for radical cost management in currency crisis scenarios.
DDX (Ivan Sitnikov): Fitness and retail real estate developer investing heavily in projects across Russia, focusing on long-term presence and adapting to regional demand.
Familia (Alexander Greshak): Offline retailer emphasizing emotional storytelling, high conversion, and customer experience; introducing self-service checkouts alongside human service.
Examples of successful mixed-use retail and leisure spaces integrating fitness, restaurants, and community events (e.g., Milya shopping center).

Actionable Recommendations

Prioritize operational efficiency and cost control while preparing for post-crisis growth.
Focus on price competitiveness and value to meet the price-sensitive consumer.
Develop unique offline experiences that cannot be replicated online.
Embrace omnichannel strategies with seamless customer journeys.
Innovate shopping center formats towards community, entertainment, and socialization hubs.
Leverage government grants and cultural/demographic programs for retail space innovation.
Personalize offers and assortments, especially for younger, style-conscious consumers.
Maintain a human touch in offline retail, balancing technology with personal service.
Collaborate across sectors (retail, fitness, food/beverage) to create integrated consumer ecosystems.

Presenters & Sources

Marina Ternopilskaya – Moderator, Contact Intersearch
Sergey Kandakov – CEO, Tomler
Denis Tomashevsky – General Director, Eco
Alexander Greshak – CEO, Familia
Alexander Peremyatov – General Director & Owner, Slava Concept
Igor Gusev – CEO, Laridut Rus (online retail)
Ivan Sitnikov – Owner & CEO, DDX (fitness & retail real estate)
Additional insights from audience questions and references to market analysts and economic forecasts.

This session highlighted the complexity and necessity of adaptive strategies in Russian retail for 2026, emphasizing efficiency, emotional connection, omnichannel integration, and innovative retail real estate development as keys to future success.