Économie et marchés : nos convictions pour 2026

Top-line view

• The speaker argues the market consensus for 2026 is too complacent. Most institutions expect a “normal” year (global growth ~3%), but geopolitical shocks and structural trends increase downside risk.
• Structural context: long-term global growth is slowing (demographics and productivity shifts are key drivers).
• Cyclical view: a slowdown in growth plus easing inflation points to lower interest rates ahead, but material geopolitical and policy risks (trade/tariffs, Iran, Venezuela, US politics) could complicate the path.

Macro forecasts and key numbers

Growth (consensus vs. speaker view)

• Global: consensus ~3%.
• Eurozone: ~1%.
• France: ~1.2%.
• China: official/consensus ~5%; speaker sees nearer ~4.6% possible.
• US: 2025 ended near ~2% (consensus range cited 1.8–2.8%).

Inflation

• Consensus: US ~3%; Europe ~1.5–2.7% (range cited).
• Speaker expects continued disinflation: Eurozone slightly above 1%, US toward ~2%.

Interest rates

• Short-term rates are currently “well above inflation” (multi-percent range).
• Speaker expects significant Fed cuts starting in May — “jumbo” cuts of 0.50–0.75% each.
• Europe: likely 1–2 cuts of 0.25–0.50% each.
• Quantitative easing (Fed buying paper) could be used to anchor long-term yields.

Demographics (structural)

• Chinese fertility ~0.98; one-year population decline ~12 million cited as evidence of structural slowing.
• Productivity gains (automation/robotisation) are reducing employment and consumption capacity over the long term.

Assets, instruments, and sectors mentioned

• Equities: US large caps / S&P 500; technology / AI names (valuations described as “extremely demanding”).
• Fixed income: listed bonds, bond funds, dated bond funds (example maturity 2031), private debt.
• Private markets: private debt, private equity (preference for evergreen/liquid funds), private real estate, real assets.
• Cash / short-term: euro-denominated cash funds (yield ~3% cited).
• ETFs: widely used for listed exposure in managed portfolios.
• Commodities / energy: oil (supply dynamics with Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia; US political objective to push oil toward ~$50).
• FX: EUR/USD — speaker avoids currency speculation; most managed portfolios avoid currency bets.
• Institutions / platforms referenced: Meilleur Placement (managed portfolios), Generali, Spirica.
• Others cited: IMF, “Anglo-Saxon” institutions, Fed (Powell), Christine Lagarde.

Portfolio construction, allocation and strategy

Practical steps

• Rebalance toward income / rate products:
  • Increase exposure to fixed income and private debt because yields are attractive vs. inflation.
  • Use bond funds with explicit maturities (dated bond funds) and consider longer maturities where appropriate.
• Prefer low-fee, index-tracking ETFs for listed exposure; avoid paying large active fees that typically underperform after fees.
• Keep liquidity available to buy on corrections; maintain euro-denominated cash funds to hold liquidity.

Target/current allocations (as presented)

• Bond portion (listed bonds): ~25%.
• Private debt: >10%.
• Combined interest-rate products: ~35% of portfolio.
• Equity exposure: reduced to ~20% (from a higher level); plan to rebuild to ~27–28% on a 10–15% equity correction.
• Liquidity: larger-than-usual pool parked in euro cash funds (remunerated).

Private markets approach

• Continue allocating to private debt (noted as a repeat of 2025’s “investment of the year”).
• Prefer evergreen, liquid private equity funds rather than long-locked vintages.
• Be ready for price revaluation opportunities where sellers accept discounts.

Risk / execution rules

• Avoid currency speculation for euro-based clients — do not take FX bets.
• Use managed ETF-based solutions rather than active managers with high fees.
• Rebalance when indices diverge materially and keep liquidity to buy on corrections (expect possible 10–15% equity correction).
• Maintain diversification across asset classes (described as the “Martingale” / winning strategy).

Real assets

• Real estate: constructive if rates fall and incremental growth persists. German infrastructure/defense plans could add growth in 2026–27 (~1% growth effect when fully implemented).
• Commodities/energy: downward pressure on oil possible if US policy facilitates more supply, but not an immediate collapse.

Performance targets and yields

• Target returns for a balanced profile: overall portfolio returns in the 5–7% range.
• Private debt yields: 8–9% possible (allocate only a portion to limit risk).
• Listed-rate products / bond yields: current environment allows capturing ~5–6%.
• Euro cash funds: around ~3%.

Risks, cautions, and watch-list

• Complacent consensus: broad forecasts for a “normal” 2026 are a contrarian warning sign.
• Geopolitical risks: US policy/tariffs, Iran, Venezuela, etc., can change commodity prices and inflation expectations.
• Policy risk: potential political pressure on central bank independence in the US (possible push for Fed cuts and influence over appointments).
• Equity valuations: AI and other growth stocks are richly valued — downside if growth disappoints.
• Currency risk: US equity gains can be erased for euro investors by EUR/USD moves.
• Structural risk: demographics and productivity trends may curb long-term demand and slow growth.

Tactical recommendations (explicit)

• Prioritize fixed-income and private debt exposure now (target ~35% interest-rate products in managed portfolios).
• Reduce listed equity exposure now (~20%); increase cash/liquidity to be ready to buy a 10–15% correction.
• Use ETFs and low-fee index funds for liquid exposure; favor managed ETF-based implementations over active managers.
• Avoid FX speculation; keep euro-based allocations aligned with home currency norms.
• Maintain diversification and use managed portfolios that rebalance.

Operational details and product choices

• Meilleur Placement’s managed portfolios are ETF-heavy on the liquid portion.
• Partnerships/platforms for implementation: Generali and Spirica.
• Use euro-denominated cash funds to hold liquidity (yield ~3%).
• Bond strategies include dated bond funds (example maturity 2031; consider longer-dated where appropriate).

Disclosures and tone

• No explicit “not financial advice” subtitle, but the speaker presents firm-level views (Meilleur Placement) and describes these as their managed portfolio positions and expectations.
• Emphasis on transparency: the speaker notes communication via newsletter and that they “practice what they preach.”

Presenters and sources referenced

• Presenters: Marc (main speaker), Patri (greeted), plus an unnamed host/moderator.
• Institutions / sources: IMF, Anglo‑Saxon institutions, Fed (Powell), Christine Lagarde, Generali, Spirica.
• Political figures referenced: Donald Trump.
• Video/source: Meilleur Placement (presentation of convictions for 2026).

Bottom line: Expect a disinflationary environment and lower interest rates in 2026 but act with caution due to geopolitical and policy risks. Tactical posture — overweight fixed income/private debt and liquidity; underweight equities until a clear correction; prefer low-cost, ETF-based implementation and avoid FX risk for euro-based clients.