Summary of "Nasa issues major update on 'city killer' asteroid threatening to hit Earth"
NASA has updated the public on the asteroid known as YR4, which was initially considered a significant threat to Earth. Upon its discovery in December, the asteroid was assessed to have a 1 in 32 chance of colliding with Earth, placing it at the top of NASA's risk list. However, recent data has dramatically reduced the likelihood of a collision to 1 in 26,000, meaning there is now over a 99.9% chance that it will pass without incident.
Richard Binzel, a professor of planetary science at MIT and inventor of the Torino impact scale, explained that the initial risk assessment was based on limited data regarding the asteroid's orbital path. As more information became available, scientists were able to refine their predictions, leading to a significant reduction in the perceived threat. Once the probability of impact fell below 1 in 1,000, YR4 was classified as level zero on the Torino scale, indicating no hazard.
If YR4 were to impact Earth, it would have had a devastating effect, equivalent to an explosion of 8 billion kilos of TNT, creating a crater over a mile wide. However, it is now expected to pass safely by Earth in 2028 at a distance of approximately 5 million miles and again in December 2032, with no risk of collision.
Presenters/Contributors:
- Richard Binzel, Professor of planetary science at MIT
Category
News and Commentary
