Summary of "Оборона разваливается или нет? Прорыв к Новопавловке остановлен? Разгром колонны. Бои в Купянске"
Military Situation on the Eastern Ukrainian Front
The video provides a detailed analysis of the current military situation on the eastern Ukrainian front, focusing on key areas such as Zaporizhzhia, Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, and the broader Donbass region amid Russia’s autumn offensive.
Zaporizhzhia Front
- The Russian army is advancing towards Novopavlovka and Gulyaipole, making notable but uneven progress.
- Despite breakthroughs of 5-7 km in a day, Russian advances have stalled in some sectors, indicating no full collapse of Ukrainian defenses but rather forced retreats and disorganized resistance.
- Russian forces captured several villages (Rivne, Yablokovo, Danilovka, Aristopol), complicating Ukrainian supply lines and defense.
- A significant breakthrough occurred when Russian armored units crossed the Volcha River and engaged in fighting inside Novopavlovka, though the battle’s outcome remains undecided.
Pokrovsk Salient
- Russian forces are pushing into Pokrovsk city, gaining control over parts of it, including the northern outskirts and villages like Rovnaya and Grishina, which are critical to preventing encirclement.
- Ukrainian forces are conducting heavy counterattacks, particularly around Rodinskoye and Myrnohrad, attempting to maintain supply routes and prevent full encirclement.
- The Ukrainian withdrawal from the southern parts of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad is strategic to reduce encirclement risk, despite Russian propaganda claims of panic.
Kupyansk and Northern Front
- Kupyansk remains contested with ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks, though Russian forces hold numerical superiority and are gradually advancing.
- The situation in Kupyansk is unclear, with conflicting reports, but a slow Russian capture seems likely.
- Further north, Russian forces continue gradual advances near Volchansk, Seversk, and Konstantinovka, preparing for possible larger offensives towards Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
- Urban combat and infiltration tactics dominate, with fog aiding Russian infantry movements but limiting their mobility to roads.
Other Frontline Developments
- Russian troops are pressing along the Zaporizhzhia front near Stepnogorsk and Primorsk, gradually gaining ground despite Ukrainian counterattacks.
- Ukrainian forces increasingly use long-range cruise missiles (Neptune, Flamingo) to strike deep into Russian territory, targeting oil supply infrastructure and air defense systems.
- A major Ukrainian strike damaged the Russian air defense base near Novorossiysk, destroying several S-400 missile system components and disrupting oil transshipment operations, significantly impacting Russian military logistics and economy.
Russian Military Production and Tactics
- Russia is scaling up production of advanced aerial bombs (FAPS MPK) with extended ranges and rocket boosters, posing a growing threat to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
- These bombs are used extensively to replace artillery, with thousands dropped monthly, and are difficult for Ukrainian defenses to intercept regularly.
- Russia also continues producing kamikaze drones but faces limits in simultaneous deployment due to aircraft availability.
Logistics and Supplies
- Ukrainian sabotage has targeted the Trans-Siberian Railway, temporarily halting train services and affecting ammunition supplies from North Korea, which are already declining.
- North Korean troops present in Russia appear limited in number and primarily engaged in engineering and support roles rather than frontline combat.
Overall Assessment
- The Russian autumn offensive has intensified, with territorial gains nearing 155 km² recently, approaching summer offensive rates.
- While Ukrainian defenses face serious challenges, including local crises and logistical difficulties, the front has not collapsed.
- Ukrainian forces aim to preserve their main combat units, avoid encirclement, and continue inflicting damage to slow Russian advances.
- The outcome of the ongoing battles, especially in Zaporizhzhia and Donbass, will shape the war’s trajectory for the coming year.
- Political and military support for Ukraine remains mixed, with Germany announcing significant future aid, while U.S. involvement appears limited, and peace talks have stalled.
Presenter
Yan Matveyev
Category
News and Commentary
